Consumer Confidence

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Not looking good. Looks like something bad did happen back in July.

The combo of modestly rising GDP, with rising unemployment due to productivity is very unattractive politically.

Deficit myths keep them doing anything substantive.

Still wouldn’t surprise me if they announce something dramatic, like they are going to pay for healthcare by cutting back in Afghanistan and elsewhere, which, program merits aside, will not be supportive to demand.

And if gold turns south (no sign of that reversal yet)/dollar spikes whatever optimism is left vanishes with the realization that all the Fed’s horses and men are irrelevant regarding deflation.

Karim writes:

  • As expected, Q3 GDP revised down to 2.8% from 3.5%; inventories close to initial estimate, so no major implications for Q4
  • Case-Shiller home prices up 0.33% m/m; slowest monthly gain since April
  • Richmond fed survey down from 7 to 1; # of employees falls from 2 to -9

Conf Board Survey

  • Headline up from 48.7 to 49.5
  • Labor market differential makes new cycle low: -45.9 to -46.6
  • Plan to buy auto w/in 6mths down from 4.7 to 4.4 (lowest since March)
  • Plan to buy home w/in 6mths from 2.3 to 2.0 (new low for cycle, and lowest since 1982); that’s what you get for $1trn in MBS purchases?!