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Karim writes:

The employment component of ISM yesterday was much stronger than expected at 53.1.

Based on the chart below, one would expect to see claims near 350k and payrolls turn positive.

We should find out soon enough if true or not, but the lower chart shows good reason for skepticism.

Small businesses have been the largest contributor to job losses (way more than the typical downturn). ISM companies typically have more than 1000 employees.

Small businesses also depend most on small and regional banks for credit; helping to explain the Fed’s sensitivity to this issue