Karim writes:
- Initial claims -13k to 631k; continuing claims up another 133k (up every week this year) to 6271k
- Suggests another 650-700k drop in payrolls and rise in ue rate from 8.5% to 9% for April employment report
- Those numbers will in turn cause the data we received today on incomes and wages for March, to worsen from already historically weak levels.
- Personal income -0.3% m/m and +0.3% y/y
- Wage and salary component of income -0.5% m/m and -1.2% y/y (prior all-time low was -0.3% y/y)
- Personal spending -0.2%. Q1 profile for real personal spending= +0.9% in Jan, +0.1% in Feb, and -0.2% in Mar. This will create a challenge for the PCE component of GDP for Q2.
- ECI up 0.3% q/q and 2.1% y/y in Q1, both all-time lows
- Chicago PMI for April up from 31.4 to 40.1
- Looks like national ISM should bounce to about 39-40 tomorrow after 36.3
- Fed comments yesterday seem to echo what I heard from ECB/BOE: Recent bounce in PMIs seem unrelated to prospects for recovery in late 2009/early 2010.
- Personal Income MoM (Released 8:30 EST)
- Personal Income YoY (Released 8:30 EST)
- Personal Income ALLX (Released 8:30 EST)
- Personal Spending (Released 8:30 EST)
- PCE Deflator YoY (Released 8:30 EST)
- PCE Core MoM (Released 8:30 EST)
- PCE Core YoY (Released 8:30 EST)
- Employment Cost Index (Released 8:30 EST)
- Employment Cost Index ALLX (Released 8:30 EST)
- Initial Jobless Claims (Released 8:30 EST)
- Continuing Claims (Released 8:30 EST)
- Jobless Claims ALLX (Released 8:30 EST)
- Chicago Purchasing Manager (Released 9:45 EST)
- NAPM Milwaukee (Released 10:00 EST)
Personal Income MoM (Mar)
| Survey | -0.2% |
| Actual | -0.3% |
| Prior | -0.2% |
| Revised | n/a |
Personal Income YoY (Mar)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 0.3% |
| Prior | 1.0% |
| Revised | n/a |
Personal Income ALLX (Mar)
Personal Spending (Mar)
| Survey | -0.1% |
| Actual | -0.2% |
| Prior | 0.2% |
| Revised | 0.4% |
PCE Deflator YoY (Mar)
| Survey | 0.7% |
| Actual | 0.6% |
| Prior | 1.0% |
| Revised | 0.9% |
PCE Core MoM (Mar)
| Survey | 0.1% |
| Actual | 0.2% |
| Prior | 0.2% |
| Revised | n/a |
PCE Core YoY (Mar)
| Survey | 1.8% |
| Actual | 1.8% |
| Prior | 1.8% |
| Revised | n/a |
Employment Cost Index (1Q)
| Survey | 0.5% |
| Actual | 0.3% |
| Prior | 0.5% |
| Revised | 0.6% |
Employment Cost Index ALLX (1Q)
Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 25)
| Survey | 640K |
| Actual | 631K |
| Prior | 640K |
| Revised | 645K |
Continuing Claims (Apr 18)
| Survey | 6200K |
| Actual | 6271K |
| Prior | 6137K |
| Revised | 6138K |
Jobless Claims ALLX (Apr 25)
Chicago Purchasing Manager (Apr)
| Survey | 35.0 |
| Actual | 40.1 |
| Prior | 31.4 |
| Revised | n/a |
NAPM Milwaukee (Apr)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 39.0 |
| Prior | 30.0 |
| Revised | n/a |
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