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GDP QoQ Annualized (4Q A)
Survey |
-5.5% |
Actual |
-3.8% |
Prior |
-0.5% |
Revised |
n/a |
Karim writes:
Better than expected at -3.8% due to inventory build.
Here is the GDP math:
Private consumption (-2.5%) + Business Fixed Investment (-3.1%) + Government (+0.4%) + Net Exports (+0.1%) + Chg in Inventories (+1.3%)
- Real final sales of -5.1% were consistent with estimates.
- Business sector overestimated domestic demand, thereby accounting for the inventory build (should reverse in Q1).
- Core PCE deflator slowed from 2.4% to 0.6%.
- Within investment, both housing (-23.6%) and equipment/software (-27.8%) were very weak.
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GDP YoY Annualized Real (4Q A)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
-0.2% |
Prior |
-0.7% |
Revised |
n/a |
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GDP YoY Annualized Nominal (4Q A)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
1.7% |
Prior |
3.3% |
Revised |
n/a |
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GDP Price Index (4Q)
Survey |
0.4% |
Actual |
-0.1% |
Prior |
3.9% |
Revised |
n/a |
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Core PCE QoQ (4Q)
Survey |
1.0% |
Actual |
0.6% |
Prior |
2.4% |
Revised |
n/a |
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GDP ALLX 1 (4Q)
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GDP ALLX 2 (4Q)
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Personal Consumption (4Q)
Survey |
-3.5% |
Actual |
-3.5% |
Prior |
-3.8% |
Revised |
n/a |
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Employment Cost Index (4Q)
Survey |
0.7% |
Actual |
0.5% |
Prior |
0.7% |
Revised |
n/a |
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Employment Cost Index ALLX (4Q)
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RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Nov)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
-21.59% |
Prior |
-20.14% |
Revised |
n/a |
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RPX Composite 28dy Index (Nov)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
199.39 |
Prior |
206.73 |
Revised |
n/a |
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Chicago Purchasing Manager (Jan)
Survey |
34.9 |
Actual |
33.3 |
Prior |
34.1 |
Revised |
35.1 |
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NAPM Milwaukee (Jan)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
33.0 |
Prior |
30.0 |
Revised |
n/a |
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U of Michigan Confidence (Jan F)
Survey |
61.9 |
Actual |
61.2 |
Prior |
61.9 |
Revised |
n/a |
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U of Michigan TABLE Inflation Expectations (Jan F)
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