- ICSC-UBS Store Sales Weekly Change (Released 7:45 EST)
- Redbook Weekly YoY (Released 8:55 EST)
- ICSC-UBS and Redbook TABLE (Released 8:55 EST)
- ISM Manufacturing (Released 10:00 EST)
- ISM Prices Paid (Released 10:00 EST)
- ISM TABLE (Released 10:00 EST)
- Construction Spending MoM (Released 10:00 EST)
- Construction Spending YoY (Released 10:00 EST)
- ABC Consumer Confidence (Released 17:00 EST)
ICSC-UBS Store Sales Weekly Change (Jul 1)
Survey | n/a |
Actual | 0.1 |
Prior | -0.6 |
Revised | n/a |
Muddling through as govt spending and fiscal rebates offer support.
Redbook Weekly YoY (Jul 1)
Survey | n/a |
Actual | 2.9 |
Prior | 2.8 |
Revised | n/a |
A bit better than expected and seem to be moving higher.
ICSC-UBS and Redbook TABLE (Jul 1)
Survey | n/a |
Actual | n/a |
Prior | n/a |
Revised | n/a |
ISM Manufacturing (Jun)
Survey | 48.5 |
Actual | 50.2 |
Prior | 49.6 |
Revised | n/a |
Better than expected, headline looks better than the detail, but holding up well above recession levels.
ISM Prices Paid (Jun)
Survey | 87.0 |
Actual | 91.5 |
Prior | 87.0 |
Revised | n/a |
Breaking out. Question is whether there’s any level of inflation that will trigger a fed rate hike if GDP and financial conditions (whatever that means) stay at current levels.
ISM TABLE (Jun)
Karim writes:
- Not much change in headline or production/new order components.
- Most material changes in prices paid (up 4.5; to new cycle high) and employment (down 1.8; to new cycle low).
Kohn’s speech: tolerate higher unemployment and higher inflation.
- Based on continuing claims, conference board, and now ism, downside risk to -60k consensus for nfp on Thursday.
Weak, but not recession levels yet.
Government plus exports so far have made up for weak non-government domestic demand.
Construction Spending MoM (May)
Survey | -0.6% |
Actual | -0.4% |
Prior | -0.4% |
Revised | -0.1% |
A bit better than expected. Down but not terrible.
Construction Spending YoY (May)
Survey | n/a |
Actual | -6.0% |
Prior | -5.1% |
Revised | n/a |
Still near the lows, but a possible bottoming action.
ABC Consumer Confidence (Jun 29)
Survey | n/a |
Actual | -43 |
Prior | -43 |
Revised | n/a |
Still looking pretty grim, probably mostly due to higher prices.
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