Depression Archive

We are NOT anywhere near a depression!

[Skip to the end] Personal Income from 1929-1940 Nothing remotely like this is currently in the cards. It was the last gold standard collapse. The US gold standard was abandoned domestically in 1934. Personal Income from 1940-1945 Nothing remotely like this will happen this time around. World War II deficits exceeded 20% ...Read More

Budget surpluses and depressions

[Skip to the end] After the last budget surplus ended in 2001, Bloomberg stated it was the longest period of surplus since 1927 -1930. Prof. Fred Thayer wrote this before the surpluses of the late 90’s: Here’s part of the intro: From the origins to World War II In its first ...Read More


Agreed that government can buy stocks to keep them from falling, as HK did. But the 1930s was a gold standard deflationary collapse. The Fed was constrained from net buying anything due to the risk of losing gold reserves. The risks are very different now with non-convertible currency/floating fx: Depression risk might ...Read More