Bank loans, Commercial real estate index, Dining

The retreat continues: Commercial real estate leading index was down again for June: Taken a turn for the worse: ...Read More

Jobless claims, GDP forecasts, Stock valuations by mkt cap

Still at very high levels: Q2 forecasts for GDP, which ended June 30 (forecasting the past). Down 35% is about a $2 trillion drop in income/sales for the economy: Interesting: ...Read More

Consumer credit, Truck sales, Covid

Consumer borrowing to spend is a component of private sector deficit spending that offsets unspent income to support GDP which is sales/income. Consumer borrowing is also ‘dissaving’ so a drop in borrowing is recorded as an increase in savings. The open question is to what degree the fiscal adjustment/increase in public sector ...Read More

JOLTS, Services, Rails, Eurozone GDP

Note the yellow line, job openings, which peaked with the tariffs and then full further with covid: The non manufacturing index peaked with the implementation of the tariffs, well before covid hit. And employment growth is still negative: Same with rails- turned down with the tariffs well before covid, and then went ...Read More

Bank loans

The spike continues to reverse, and the deceleration in consumer borrowing is also an increase in savings: ...Read More

Employment, Vehicle sales, Factory orders

New claims for unemployment comp remain at alarmingly high levels: Holding too steady at just under 20 million: Last month I noted that the “reopenings” would be a June story, and that is what this report suggests. In addition, companies using PPP had to rehire employees to convert the loans to grants. ...Read More

ADP, ISM, Chicago business

A relatively few new private sector jobs after the massive loss: A little bit of growth from massively depressed levels: Still in contraction: ...Read More

Architecture billings, Bank loans, Pending home sales, Dallas Fed Manufacturing

Same story: Heading steadily lower. This is the source of a large component of the money supply. It’s always growing in normal times: Both fell hard and still falling from the lower levels: ...Read More

Unemployment claims, Durable goods orders, Trade, Testing

Still increasing at an alarming rate: The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits eased to 1.480 million in the week ended June 20th, well above market expectations of 1.300 million, as companies continued to cut jobs more than a month after non-essential businesses resumed operations following closures in mid-March due to ...Read More

PMI, New and existing home sales, Vacation plans

Note that it had already been decelerating from the tariffs before the virus hit. And it’s still been in contraction after 3 months: Services are contracting a bit faster than manufacturing: Still way down even with lower rates: ...Read More