Redbook Retail Sales, NY Housing Spike

More of same- looking very weak Highlights Redbook’s sample has been reporting depressed sales rates since all the way back in March, including the latest week when same-store year-on-year sales rose only 1.2 percent. The report blames a seasonal lull for the latest disappointment, citing lack of shopper interest ahead of the ...Read More

Euro Area CA, Macro Chart Update

Still positive but lower and less than expected: A few charts not looking so good: Housing doing a bit better but remains well below levels associated with prior recessions and remains a much smaller % of GDP: Beware spikes in permits! ...Read More

LA Port Traffic, Greek Banks, Recession Without Financial Crisis

Another weak export report. No mention of the drop in oil prices reduced foreign incomes. LA area Port Traffic: Weakness in June by Bill McBride on 7/20/2015 09:57:00 AM Note: There were some large swings in LA area port traffic earlier this year due to labor issues that were settled on February ...Read More

Rail Traffic and Credit Check

Rail Week Ending 11 July 2015: Back to Contraction Econintersect: Week 27 of 2015 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) contracted after expanding last week according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Intermodal traffic expanded year-over-year, which accounts for approximately half of movements ...Read More

WRKO The Voice of Boston Radio Interview

Click here to listen to my interview on WRKO The Voice of Boston on July 17th ...Read More

Housing Starts, Consumer Sentiment

The increase is entirely a multi family story, and multi family dwellings are cheaper/smaller than single family: Highlights Strong demand for apartment units drove housing starts & permits data far beyond expectations, overshadowing less strength for the key single-family home category. Starts came in near the top of expectations, up 9.8 percent ...Read More

Atlanta Fed, 2004 vs 2015 US data, EU trade

The Atlanta Fed forecast as of July 14 is was +2.3% annualized for Q2, which is far below initial estimates of most professional forecasters, and below their current forecasts as well, and likely to be lowered further due to recent data. The first government estimate for Q2 GDP will be released on ...Read More

Claims, Phili Fed, Housing index

Down a touch but the 4 week moving average still moving higher: Highlights Auto retooling is clouding initial jobless claims data which fell 15,000 in the July 11 week to 281,000. But the 4-week average, inflated by a 14,000 spike in the prior week, rose 3,250 to a 282,500 level that’s more ...Read More

Nice Mentions in Bloomberg

Nine People Who Saw the Greek Crisis Coming Years Before Everyone Else Did By Julie Verhage and Alex Balogh (Bloomberg) Saw it all coming in 1995 and held a conference on it in 1996 in Bretton Woods. ;) ...Read More

Fed Testimony

Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress By Janet Yellen Looking forward, prospects are favorable for further improvement in the U.S. labor market and the economy more broadly. Low oil prices Still seems to leave out the fact that a dollar saved by the buyer of oil is a dollar lost by ...Read More