Japan, China, Fed comment, Capex cutbacks, South Korea

This is the yen yield curve after over 20 years of a 0 rate policy, massive QE, and now negative overnight rates. Maybe now the economy will finally respond. :( (And how good can the BOJ think the economy is?) The western educated kids/monetarists who’ve taken control don’t seem to be doing ...Read More

GDP, Saudi oil production, KC Fed, Chicago PMI, Shale Italy and Japan comments

As expected, the deceleration continues, and over the next couple of years it wouldn’t surprise me if the entire year gets revised down substantially: GDP Highlights Consumer spending is the central driver of the economy but is slowing, at least it was during the fourth quarter when GDP rose only at a ...Read More

Economic Index, Storefronts, Fed statement, Pending home sales, Durable goods orders

Also tracing the weakness back to the oil capex collapse: Econintersect’s Economic Index declined and is barely positive – and still remains at the lowest value since the end of the Great Recession. The tracked sectors of the economy which showed growth were mostly offset by the sectors in contraction. Our economic ...Read More

Mtg purchase apps, Vehicle sales, Oil capex, Business equipment borrowing, Equipment sales, New home sales

Inching up a bit but still seriously depressed: MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights Weekly mortgage applications have been very volatile so far this year but mostly to the upside. Purchase applications jumped 5.0 percent in the January 22 week with refinancing applications up 11.0 percent. Low mortgage rates are driving the activity, down ...Read More

Recession warnings, Dallas Fed

Reads like we are already in recession… Recession Warnings May Not Come to Pass Jan 24 (WSJ) — Every U.S. recession since World War II has been foretold by sharp declines in industrial production, corporate profits and the stock market. Industrial production has declined in 10 of the past 12 months, and ...Read More

Bank loans

When the growth rate was even modestly increasing it made the news. Now that it’s decelerating not a word… ...Read More

Chicago Fed, existing home sales

Still negative: Chicago Fed National Activity Index Highlights December was a weak month for the U.S. economy but a little less weak than November, based on the national activity index which improved to minus 0.22 from minus 0.36 (revised lower from minus 0.30). The improvement is centered in the production component as ...Read More

Claims, Philly Fed

Possible bottom and now moving higher: This month’s negative reading doesn’t look so bad because the revised last month’s down so much… ;) Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey Highlights The factory sector continues to slow this month though, in good news, the rate of contraction is flattening out. The Philly Fed’s general ...Read More

Housing starts, Mtg purch apps

Looks to have stopped growing about 10 months ago: Remains seriously depressed: MBA Mortgage Applications ...Read More

Holiday sales, Atlanta Fed, Freight transport index

Not long ago they blamed cold weather, now it was the warm weather. And this time not a word about the consumer not spending his gas savings… ;) Holiday sales fall short of forecasts: NRF Jan 15 (CNBC) — The National Retail Federation said Friday that holiday sales increased 3 percent to ...Read More