Home sales, Durable goods, Philly Fed index

Last month revised lower and looking weak: Highlights A drop for primary metals, a sharp drop for machinery, and a reversal for defense aircraft all pulled down durable goods orders in October which fell a sharper-than-expected 4.4 percent. A very sharp downward revision to September, revised from a 0.8 percent gain to ...Read More

Housing starts

Not good: Highlights Yesterday’s housing market index may have unexpectedly plummeted but today’s housing starts and permits report, though soft, at least is in the ballpark of expectations. Starts in October rose 1.5 percent to a 1.228 million annualized rate that compares with Econoday’s consensus for 1.240 million. Permits edged past expectations, ...Read More

Residential investment, Earnings, Saudi pricing, Vehicle sales

Note the deceleration began with the collapse in oil capex in 2015: The year end tax cut caused a onetime increase in earnings that subsequently flattened out and may now be declining: Seems Saudis are raising prices: Stopped growing a couple of years ago: ...Read More

Mtg apps, China exports, Oil

Continuing to be negative year over year: Highlights Rising interest rates continue to dampen mortgage activity, with purchase applications for home mortgages falling a seasonally adjusted 2.3 percent in the November 9 week to the lowest level since February 2017 while refinancing applications decreased by 4.3 percent to the lowest level since ...Read More

Consumer credit, Employment

Highlights Consumer credit growth slowed more than expected to just $10.9 billion in September, below Econoday’s consensus range and less than half of the upwardly revised $22.9 billion August increase. Growth slowed in nonrevolving credit, which rose $11.2 billion in September versus $18.3 billion previously, while growth in revolving credit stalled completely ...Read More

Housing prices, Consumer confidence, Investment

More housing weakness: Highlights Growth in home prices, as it is for home sales, is almost at a standstill, at least on a monthly basis for Case-Shiller’s 20-city adjusted index which inched only 0.1 percent higher in August. Year-on-year, the unadjusted index is still growing at healthy rate of 5.5 percent which, ...Read More

Personal income and spending, GDP comments, Philly index

Income less than expected, spending ok, so savings fell: Highlights Income growth proved very slight in September with inflation steady and moderate and right on the Federal Reserve’s target. Personal income inched only 0.2 percent higher in September which misses the low end of Econoday’s consensus range. Wages & salaries are September’s ...Read More

GDP, Pending home sales, new home sales, leveraged loans, 3M chart

Looks like without the build in private inventories GDP was about 2% lower at about 1.4%, and health care added .77% where health care premiums paid count as personal consumption. Also, the price index deflator was lower by 1.3%: Bad: Bad: Highlights Lack of available new homes has been holding sales down ...Read More

Housing starts, Mtg purchase apps, Retail sales

Gone from bad to worse: Highlights The highest interest rates in over 7 years took their toll on mortgage activity in the October 12 week, with purchase applications for home mortgages falling a seasonally adjusted 6 percent while applications for refinancing fell 9 percent. Despite the sizable seasonally adjusted decline, unadjusted purchase ...Read More

Employment, Bank loans, Output gap chart, Foreign $ bonds

Looks like it’s turned up a bit with the tax cuts? Looks like this source of private sector deficit spending has gone flat again: Looks to me a lot more like a deficiency of demand than a demographic shift: This is a source of $US deficit spending that ‘offsets’ unspent incomes: China ...Read More