Mtg Purchase Apps, Chicago PMI, ADP, Euro Comment

This is still going nowhere, and, most recently, trending lower, and obviously not responding positively to the ultra low rates of the last several years: MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights After surging in the prior week following the FOMC’s decision against a rate hike, mortgage activity fell back in the September 25 week. ...Read More

Cartoon, US International Trade, India, Redbook Retail Sales, China Comments, Consumer Confidence

As previously discussed, trade deficit increasing: United States : International trade in goods Definition The Census Bureau is now publishing an advance report on U.S. international trade in goods. The BEA will incorporate these data into its estimates of exports and imports for the advance GDP estimates. This is expected to reduce ...Read More

Papal visit indicator

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Trucking Tonnage, Earnings Per Share

ATA Truck Tonnage Index Fell 0.9% in August AAmerican Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index declined 0.9% in August, following a revised increase of 3.1% during July. In August, the index equaled 134.2 (2000=100), down from 135.3 in July. The all-time high of 135.8 was reached in January 2015. ...Read More

Personal Income, Pending Home Sales, Dallas Fed, China

Been almost a year, and still looks to me like the oil price collapse was an unambiguous negative for the US and global economies. And for the same reasons. For every buyer of oil who benefited, a seller of oil lost exactly that much. That leaves the drop in capex, as well ...Read More

Credit Check

Not looking good: Growth rates of bank lending making lower lows since oil prices collapsed: Real estate loan growth flattening out but still nudging a bit higher, but remain depressed even with low rates: ...Read More

Q2 GDP, Atlanta Fed, Manuf. vs Real GDP chart, Corp Debt, Rail Traffic

Revised up, but same story as previously discussed, with several volatile series moving up and likely to revert at least that much in Q3 when reported late October: GDP Highlights Personal spending was stronger than thought in the second quarter, helping to drive real GDP to a very solid 3.9 percent annualized ...Read More

Durable Goods Orders, Chicago Fed, KC Fed, Philly Fed State Indicator, Claims, New Home Sales

Weak capital goods expenditures and another report indicating weak exports: United States : Durable Goods Orders Highlights Transportation equipment, specifically aircraft orders, are once again skewing durable goods orders which fell 2.0 percent in August as expected. Excluding transportation, durable goods were unchanged which is slightly lower than expected. Weakness here in ...Read More

Redbook Retail Sales, Richmond Fed, Architectural Index, Mtg Purchase Index, Chemical Activity Barometer, China, Unemployment Duration Chart

No sign of improvement: Bad: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Highlights Early indications on the September factory sector are negative and now include a minus 5 headline from the Richmond Fed. New orders, unfortunately, are even more deeply in the negative column at minus 12 which points to even weaker activity in the ...Read More

School and Unemployment, Spain Conference Link

How Have Prime-Age Workers in School Affected the Labor Market? Just one of several possible factors keeping the participation rate down and the reported unemployment rate lower than otherwise, which in my narrative are the consequences of low aggregate demand/the federal deficit is too small, etc. From the St. Louis Fed: In ...Read More