Export growth, Miles driven, Ship orders

Ship Orders Fall to Lowest Level in 15 Years Ship orders world-wide have shrunk to the lowest level in 15 years as vessel owners struggle with excess capacity that has kept freight rates well below break-even levels. There were 3,200 vessels of a combined 81 million gross tons ordered globally in the ...Read More

Housing starts, Unemployment claims, China

Still heading south: In addition to tightening requirements, states have found other means to keep people from receiving benefits: Has the economy made it arder to get unemployment benefits? Not every terminated employee is eligible to receive unemployment benefits. You have to earn a minimum amount to even qualify; you cannot quit ...Read More

Euro area PMI, Architecture billings index, Philly Fed, Retail sales, Inventories, Fed report, Equity prices and earnings forecasts

Not looking good: German Factory Activity Continues to Contract in April The IHS Markit Germany Manufacturing PMI rose to 44.5 in April 2019 from the previous month’s near seven-year low of 44.1, but below market expectations of 45, a preliminary estimate showed. Still, the latest reading pointed to a sharp contraction in ...Read More

Trade, Housing affordability, China, BOJ equity buying, Retail comment

Imports and exports both decelerating indicates a weaker global economy, and weak US retail sales indicates domestic consumer spending growth is slowing: Highlights First-quarter GDP looks to get a major boost from improvement in the nation’s trade deficit which, for February, came in at much lower-than-expected $49.4 billion. And the positives are ...Read More

Housing index, Industrial production, Euro export growth

Still looks to be weakening: Looking weak: Tariff wars taking their toll: ...Read More

Housing, Freight, Infrastructure, Trump advice, MMT hysteria, Cooling real estate markets

Tax Reform Exacerbates Sales Cooldown in the U.S. (WSJ) U.S. tax reform has exacerbated a gradual cooldown in U.S. home sales over the past year in certain parts of the country, according to research from realtor.com. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which went into effect on Jan. 1, 2018, allows homeowners ...Read More

Automatic cuts, China vehicle sales, Greenspan on wealth effect

Trump may allow $125B in cuts if Congress doesn’t act (The Hill) President Trump has indicated that he would allow $125 billion in spending cuts to take place if Congress does not agree to his spending plan, White House adviser Larry Kudlow said Thursday. Kudlow was referring to budget caps set in ...Read More

Freight, Pensions, ECB, Germany

Truckers Cut Payrolls As Freight Demand Softens Funding pensions reduces aggregate demand: The Long Bull Market Has Failed to Fix Public Pensions Long term loans to banks do nothing for the macro economy and negative interest rates are a tax: Mario Draghi signaled that the European Central Bank expects to rely on ...Read More

Buy backs, Inflation, Credit applications, Philly Fed

So the question is regarding dividends vs stock buy backs- do stock buy backs cause stocks to be over valued or do dividends cause them to be undervalued? ;) A Surprising Connection Between the Bull Market and Stock Buybacks (WSJ) A study published last year in the Financial Analysts Journal, “Net Buybacks ...Read More

Auto sales, Lumber, Rail loadings, Global survey, Profits comments, Las Vegas Real Estate, Central Banks buying gold

This has been know to be associated with the housing cycle: Framing Lumber Prices Down 30% Year-over-year This has taken a dive recently: Global economy enters ‘synchronised slowdown’ (F) The global economy has entered a “synchronised slowdown” which may be difficult to reverse in 2019, according to the latest update of a ...Read More