Yellen statements

Not good: Said Yellen: “The long-run deficit probably needs to be kept in mind.” http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2016/11/17/yellen-fed-track-dec-rate-hike/93991628/ http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-17/yellen-signals-fed-won-t-be-cowed-after-trump-s-election-victory “In addition, with the debt-to-GDP ratio at around 77 percent there is not a lot of fiscal space should a shock to the economy occur, an adverse shock that did require fiscal stimulus,” she said. Feb ...Read More

Housing starts, Consumer price index, Philly Fed survey

Nice move up after a large move down. Note that the average of the last two months is about where this series has been. And, again, it’s the permits that count, and they are about the same as last month. And not to forget mortgage applications to buy homes fell a full ...Read More

Bannon, DB on repatriation, The $

The big stupid continues uninterrupted from regime to regime: Documentary Of The Week: Stephen Bannon Explains America’s Problems By John Lounsburry Nov 15 (Econintersect) — Econintersect: This lecture was presented to the inaugural session of the Liberty Restoration Foundation in Orlando, FL October, 2011. Stephen Bannon, the CEO of Donald Trump’s successful ...Read More

Taper tantrum redux, Repatriating rhetoric, Architectural billings index

With the Bernanke taper tantrum a housing market showing at least some signs of recovery immediately reversed course and headed south. The shale boom got things going again, and the shale bust saw some softening. But with the latest anticipatory spike in mtg rates and still not much underlying effective demand, we’re ...Read More

Mtg rates, Industrial production

If rates were being raised due to excess demand for mortgages the higher rates wouldn’t likely slow things down. But in this case demand has been relatively low, so the jump in rates not due to demand will likely slow demand: Highlights Purchase applications for home mortgages fell a seasonally adjusted 6 ...Read More

Fed Atlanta wage tracker, Layoffs, State 2017 spending cuts, misc. charts

So if new hires are at the lowest end of the wage scale, a reduction in the growth of new hires increases the average growth rate? Also note the large ‘dip’ in growth to less than 2% from the last recession. The ‘lost wage growth’ doesn’t even begin to get ‘made up’ ...Read More

Retail sales, Empire manufacturing, Redbook retail sales, Business inventories

Good report, driven by autos, which were up from last month though down from last year. However, on a year over year basis vehicles sales if anything seem to be moderately declining, and so won’t be contributing to growth as they had in the past. So a glimmer of hope here, but ...Read More

Consumer sentiment, Retail employment

A bit of a Trump boost, but the general downtrend of the last couple of years is still intact: Retail Employment Gains Fall 21% From A Year Ago By Challenger Gray and Christmas Nov 10 (Econintersect) — Despite largescale hiring announcements from numerous major retailers, the number of October employment gains in ...Read More

Inventories, Terzi paper

Attached is an excellent piece on the euro zone by Professor Andrea Terzi Sales aren’t falling year over year but they aren’t growing at 5% as they would do in ‘normal’ times: In ‘normal’ times inventories increase with sales, adding to output. But when sales slow inventory growth stops and reverses: I ...Read More

Saudi output and pricing update

The Saudis set prices via discounts to benchmarks, which will trigger either price appreciation or depreciation, or, if they happen to get the discounts ‘exactly neutral,’ at least near term stability. They then allow their clients, who are all refiners, to buy all they want at the posted prices. To date the ...Read More