Factory orders, Construction, Vehicles, Trump comments

This was before the new round of tariffs took effect, which will only make things worse: US Factory Activity Contracts for 1st Time since 2016 The ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US fell to 49.1 in August from 51.2 in the previous month, missing market expectations of 51.1. The reading pointed to ...Read More

Personal income and expenditures, Consumer sentiment, Chicago PMI, Trump comments

With personal income decelerating shouldn’t surprise anyone if personal consumption does same, not to forget benchmark revisions just took employment down by 500,000 dampening that source of personal income: US Personal Income Grows the Least in Nearly a Year Personal income in the United States increased 0.1 percent month-over-month in July of ...Read More

Pending home sales, Trade, Trump comments

Back down: Highlights After jumping sharply in June, pending home sales sank sharply in July, falling 2.5 percent which is well below expectations. Yet the 105.6 showing for the index is nevertheless among the best showings of the last year. Today’s results will hold down August forecasts for existing home sales which ...Read More

US oil exports

The US is about to send a lot more oil into an already oversupplied world market The U.S. is about to boost its status as a major oil exporter. New pipelines are coming online to transport oil from a bottleneck in the Permian Basin to the Gulf Coast where it can be ...Read More

Durable goods, Fed surveys, House prices, Chicago Fed, Dudley comments, Trump comments

This is before the latest round of tariffs which will only make things worse: Up a bit for the month, but still working it’s way lower. Also, the chart is not inflation adjusted, so in real terms it’s far below prior ‘peaks’: Growth of home prices is slowing: Speaks for itself: Highlights ...Read More


It’s all in contraction: A slump in freight shipping flashes warning signs for economy as US-China trade war rages Air freight volumes fell nearly 5% in June, the eighth consecutive month of declines. Freight airlines say demand has dropped amid the worsening trade war between the U.S. and China. Economists and executives ...Read More

Trump comments, Mexico, Fox News polls

Powell’s getting the perfect opening to resign: Trump tweets: ‘Who is our bigger enemy,’ Fed Chairman Powell or Chinese President Xi? Serious dementia- hopefully enough for Pence to pull the plug: Stocks fell to their lows of the day on Friday after President Donald Trump ordered in a series tweets that U.S. ...Read More

Employment revision, US pmi, KC Fed, Archetecture index, German PMI, Australia PMI, Trump comments

Employment growth has been revised substantially lower. Note that one of the inputs used for estimating monthly employment is data from the weekly jobless claims report, which I had suggested would be misleading due to claims being made substantially harder to get over the last several years. Employment: Preliminary annual benchmark revision ...Read More

Mtg apps, Existing home sales, Freight, Germany, Greenland

Highlights The surge in refinancing is easing as the related index, after spiking 37.0 and 12.0 percent in the two prior weeks, rose only 0.4 percent in the August 16 week. Yet rates did move lower in the week, down another 3 basis points to 3.90 percent for conventional 30-year loans and ...Read More

Japan exports, RV sales, Tariff delays

Japan Exports Fall for 8th Month Exports from Japan dropped 1.6 percent from a year earlier to JPY 6.64 trillion in July 2019, the eighth straight month of decrease and compared to market expectations of 2.2 percent fall, amid weakening global demand and the US-China trade dispute. An Economic Warning Sign: RV ...Read More