PR note, ADP, Holiday sales, Euro area sales taxes, Erdogan on rates, Tillerson comment, PR bonds

Just noticed this. PR has had over 500,000 move to the states for economic reasons: For many Puerto Rico residents, it’s time to leave the island Note: Puerto Rico is not included in the national employment report. FYI: Highlights Hurricanes didn’t scramble ADP’s sample too much in September with their private payroll ...Read More

State Index, Construction spending, PMI and ISM

More data that shows we may already be in recession, and in line with the deceleration in bank lending: Large downward revision to last month was larger than this month’s gain: Highlights The construction spending report is often volatile and today’s results are an example. The headline is up a solid 0.5 ...Read More

Credit check, Expectations vs spending, Inflation, Comments on Fed policy

You may be hearing about ‘spike’ in lending last week, so I’ll try to give you some perspective using commercial and industrial lending charts before just showing year over year changes: In this 10 year chart you can see how the growth in lending suddenly slowed back in November 2016. You can ...Read More

Personal income and spending, Consumer sentiment

July Personal income revised down to .3 and August only .2 further confirms income growth- the driver of consumption- has slowed down in line with the deceleration in bank lending, and the same seems to be the case with spending, with weak price indicators further confirming the same weak demand narrative. And ...Read More

GDP revision, Inventories, Corporate profits, Trump fundraiser

Revised higher due to inventory building- not good- and weak prices also tend to indicate low demand. And note how q3 gdp estimates have been coming down as well: Highlights Second-quarter GDP proved strong, at an as-expected 3.1 percent annualized rate for the third estimate driven by consumer spending at a 3.3 ...Read More

New home sales, Pending home sales, Durable goods orders, Children

Heading south in line with the deceleration of mortgage lending: Highlights Weakness in the South pulled down new home sales in August as it did in last week’s existing home sales report. New home sales fell sharply in the month to a 560,000 annualized rate vs an upward revised rate of 580,000 ...Read More

Vehicle sales, Homebuyer affordability, Bank loans, FX reserves, Growth index, Rail traffic

Looking like an uptick here, some of it weather related? From WardsAuto: Forecast: SAAR Expected to Surpass 17 Million in September A WardsAuto forecast calls for U.S. light-vehicle sales to reach a 17.5 million-unit seasonally adjusted annual rate in September, following August’s 16.0 million SAAR and ending a 6-month streak of sub-17 ...Read More

Chicago Fed, Small business optimism, NY Fed comments

Note the shift: From NY Fed’s Dudley. I added a chart after several of his statements so you can see what he sees as support for his statements. Looks a lot to me like he’s trying to manage expectations? “The fundamentals supporting continued expansion are generally quite favorable. Low unemployment, sturdy job ...Read More

Retail sales, Industrial production, Euro area trade, Rail week

The story is the weakness is weather related, as was the cpi increase, though not the downward revision for the prior month. (I suppose getting control of the weather would be a useful policy tool for the Fed to hit its targets?) The economy is to some degree path dependent, which in ...Read More

Euro reserves, Small business survey, Municipal revenues

Trumped up expectations continue even as earnings deteriorate: As U.S. Economy Improves, Cities May Be Headed for Another Downturn Cities may be facing a new period of economic stress — even as the national economy continues to improve. According to a National League of Cities (NLC) report released on Tuesday, municipal finance ...Read More