Bank loans, Commercial real estate index, Dining
Economic Releases
Jul 15, 2020
The retreat continues: Commercial real estate leading index was down again for June: Taken a turn for the worse:
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Jobless claims, GDP forecasts, Stock valuations by mkt cap
Economic Releases
Jul 11, 2020
Still at very high levels: Q2 forecasts for GDP, which ended June 30 (forecasting the past). Down 35% is about a $2 trillion drop in income/sales for the economy: Interesting:
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Consumer credit, Truck sales, Covid
Economic Releases
Jul 09, 2020
Consumer borrowing to spend is a component of private sector deficit spending that offsets unspent income to support GDP which is sales/income. Consumer borrowing is also ‘dissaving’ so a drop in borrowing is recorded as an increase in savings. The open question is to what degree the fiscal adjustment/increase in public sector
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JOLTS, Services, Rails, Eurozone GDP
Economic Releases
Jul 07, 2020
Note the yellow line, job openings, which peaked with the tariffs and then full further with covid: The non manufacturing index peaked with the implementation of the tariffs, well before covid hit. And employment growth is still negative: Same with rails- turned down with the tariffs well before covid, and then went
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Bank loans
Economic Releases
Jul 06, 2020
The spike continues to reverse, and the deceleration in consumer borrowing is also an increase in savings:
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Employment, Vehicle sales, Factory orders
Economic Releases
Jul 02, 2020
New claims for unemployment comp remain at alarmingly high levels: Holding too steady at just under 20 million: Last month I noted that the “reopenings” would be a June story, and that is what this report suggests. In addition, companies using PPP had to rehire employees to convert the loans to grants.
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ADP, ISM, Chicago business
Economic Releases
Jul 02, 2020
A relatively few new private sector jobs after the massive loss: A little bit of growth from massively depressed levels: Still in contraction:
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Architecture billings, Bank loans, Pending home sales, Dallas Fed Manufacturing
Economic Releases
Jun 29, 2020
Same story: Heading steadily lower. This is the source of a large component of the money supply. It’s always growing in normal times: Both fell hard and still falling from the lower levels:
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Unemployment claims, Durable goods orders, Trade, Testing
Economic Releases
Jun 25, 2020
Still increasing at an alarming rate: The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits eased to 1.480 million in the week ended June 20th, well above market expectations of 1.300 million, as companies continued to cut jobs more than a month after non-essential businesses resumed operations following closures in mid-March due to
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PMI, New and existing home sales, Vacation plans
Economic Releases
Jun 23, 2020
Note that it had already been decelerating from the tariffs before the virus hit. And it’s still been in contraction after 3 months: Services are contracting a bit faster than manufacturing: Still way down even with lower rates:
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