ADP employment, PMI services, ISM services

Higher than expected but last month was revised down by 53,000 (and same could happen of course for this month). And this is just a forecast for the Friday jobs report, not a hard number. Also note that as per the chart the annual growth rate has been declining and it’s too ...Read More

Trade, Manufacturing new orders, Redbook retail sales, GDP forecasts

The trade deficit was a bit less than expected, all due to lower imports. The question is whether this means there were more domestic purchases, whether this is an indicator of lower aggregate demand: Highlights In favorable news for first-quarter GDP, the nation’s trade gap hit Econoday’s low estimate in February at ...Read More

Vehicle sales, Construction spending, PMI, ISM

Big drop, and in line with collapsing bank loan reports: Highlights First-quarter GDP will take another hit, this time from March vehicle sales which like February and January proved weak. But the March data is unusually weak, down 5.7 in the month to a 16.6 million annualized rate that is a 2-year ...Read More

Credit check

Yikes! Check out that 2nd derivative! ;) Sure looks like something bad happened early in q416 to an economy already decelerating since oil capex collapsed just over a couple of years ago. Seems to me the only thing preventing a stock market collapse is a stock market collapse… ;) ...Read More

Personal income and spending, Consumer sentiment, Atlanta Fed

Trumped up expectations are fading a bit while ‘hard data’ continues to fade. And note the real disposable personal income chart which continues its deceleration that began when oil capex collapsed: Highlights A second month of weak spending on services pulled down on consumer spending which could only manage a 0.1 percent ...Read More

Border tax comments, Redbook retail sales, International trade, Consumer confidence

So they used to tell the story about a guy who claimed he could make cars out of wood, and he started a company in Oregon that brought trees into one door of his giant building with new cars coming out of another door, and he wouldn’t let anyone inside to see ...Read More

Credit check, Vehicle sales forecast

Hard to say the credit collapse is over. And as the causation is “bank loans create bank deposits” that component of the ‘money supply’ is decelerating as well: The seasonally adjusted rate of sales continues to work it’s way lower: From WardsAuto: Forecast: U.S. March Sales to Reach 17-Year High A WardsAuto ...Read More

Services and manufacturing PMI, Durable goods orders, Atlanta Fed

Trumped up expectations fading, as weakness in the service sector continues, And if Trump loses today’s health care vote, I expect those expectations to fade that much faster: Highlights All in the mid-to-low 50s and at 6-month lows, a significant moderation in growth is the signal from Markit Economics’ U.S. diffusion indexes. ...Read More

New home sales

More than expected but as per the chart it looks like they’ve peaked and are working their way lower. And as no house is built without a permit, and permits are also soft, I don’t see anything good happening. Also, bank lending for real estate has been decelerating and mortgage applications are ...Read More

FHA house price index, Existing home sales, Industrial production

This was a surprise: Highlights In an unusually weak showing, the FHFA house price index came in unchanged in January with year-on-year appreciation falling a steep 5 tenths to 5.7 percent. This is the weakest month-to-month showing in more than 4 years and the weakest year-on-year rate in 2-1/2 years. Also weak: ...Read More