Mtg apps, ADP payrolls, Wholesale trade, Atlanta Fed GDP forecast, Tax refund delays

The growth rate has slowed and the level of apps remains depressed: Nice move up. This is just a forecast of Friday’s number: Highlights The February employment report looks to be a blockbuster based on ADP’s estimate for giant growth of 298,000 in private payrolls. This would be the biggest gain since ...Read More

Trade, Consumer credit

As previously discussed, trade looks to be more negative in q1 than it was in q4: Highlights January’s trade deficit came in very deep but at least right on expectations, at $48.5 billion and reflecting a surge in foreign consumer and vehicle imports and higher prices for imported oil. January imports rose ...Read More

Factory orders, Rail Carloads, Trump comments

Back to slow growth from the lower levels: Durable goods orders: Capital goods: It’s gone from bad to worse. Hard to see how this can continue much longer: Trump’s Wiretap Claims: What We Know and What We Don’t White House sources acknowledge that Trump had no idea whether the claims he was ...Read More

Credit check

Starting to look seriously ominous: When delinquencies start going up, banks tend to start tightening up lending standards a bit to keep them in check, which tends to slow down lending, which causes the economy to soften, resulting in a downward spiral that doesn’t end until public sector deficit spending increases sufficiently: ...Read More

Service sector, Household income, Expectations

These service sector surveys are ‘soft data’: Markit : ISM: Another income measure that’s going nowhere: Trumped up expectations: Gauging Firm Optimism in a Time of Transition ...Read More

Fed Atlanta, Saudi output, Unemployment claims

Yes, recent ‘hard data’ has driving down GDP estimates, trumped up expectations not withstanding: At current pricing the Saudis are seeing less demand, due to others pumping more most likely: This chart tells me that it’s gotten a lot harder to be eligible for unemployment benefits this cycle, and an automatic fiscal ...Read More

Personal income and spending, Construction spending, Light vehicle sales, Trade, GPD

The theme of trumped up expectations and actual data heading south continues: Note the real disposable personal income chart- not good!! Highlights Inflation is nearly at the Fed’s 2.0 percent target, up a sharp 3 tenths to 1.9 percent for the PCE price index which is the strongest rate since April 2012. ...Read More

Pending home sales, Durable goods orders, Dallas Fed, Bank loans, Japan

Same story, expectations trumped up but actual numbers not so good: Bad: Highlights Just when existing home sales seemed to be showing lift the pending home sales index, which tracks initial contract signings, is down 2.8 percent in the January report. This points to weakness for final resales in February and March. ...Read More

New home sales, Trucking, Trump comments

Up, though less then expected. Nothing here to suggest any kind of economic acceleration: Highlights New home sales have lost some traction and it’s not because of tightening supply. At 555,000, January’s annualized pace came in more than 20,000 below the Econoday consensus and includes a big downward revision, not to December ...Read More

Mtg purchase apps, Existing home sales, Architecture billings

Down again, and these are seasonally adjusted: Highlights Purchase applications for home mortgages fell a seasonally adjusted 3 percent in the February 17 week, while refinancing applications decreased by 1 percent to the lowest level since January. Unadjusted, the purchase index rose 2 percent from the prior week and was up 10 ...Read More