Chain store sales, Saudi output and pricing, Publication notice

More weak hard data: Highlights Chain stores are reporting mostly lower sales rates in January than December, in line with Redbook data and hinting at possible trouble for the ex-auto ex-gas reading of the January retail sales report. Looking at the total retail sales report, unit auto sales proved very soft compared ...Read More

Vehicle sales, Mtg purchase applications, Construction spending, ADP private payrolls, ISM manufacturing, PMI manufacturing

Same story- survey expectations elevated while hard data continues to soften: Based on a preliminary estimate from WardsAuto, light vehicle sales were at a 17.47 million SAAR in January. That is up about 2% from January 2016, and down 4.5% from the 18.29 million annual sales rate last month. Read more at ...Read More

Trumped up expectations, Chicago PMI, Consumer sentiment, Redbook retail sales, Executive orders, GDP comment, Trump comments, Income and spending chart

Trumped up expectations vs ‘hard data’: Highlights January was a flat month for the Chicago PMI which could manage only 50.3, virtually at the breakeven 50.0 level that indications no change from the prior month. New orders have now joined backlog orders in contraction in what is a negative combination for future ...Read More

Personal income and spending, Pending home sales, Dallas manufacturing

Just skip to the chart: Highlights Personal income rose a moderate 0.3 percent in December with the wages & salaries component posting a slightly better gain at 0.4 percent. The savings rate, however, fell in the month, down 2 tenths to 5.4 percent which helped to fund a strong 0.5 percent gain ...Read More

GDP, Durable goods, Consumer sentiment, Luxury home sales, Trump comments

And without the undesired inventory build due to lower sales, it would have only been up .9% for q4, and .25% lower year over year. Personal Consumption (which includes health insurance premiums) has gone from +q2;s 4.3 to q3’s +3.0 to q4’s +2.5 and we’ve kicked off the new year with a ...Read More

New home sales, Markit PMI, Chicago Fed, Trade, Gasoline demand, Voter fraud investigation

Big miss here. As previously discussed, it’s a case of lenders raising rates due to Fed fears when demand is low, further reducing demand: Highlights Consistently volatile is the well deserved reputation of the new home sales report. December sales of single-family homes plunged 10.4 percent in the month to a far ...Read More

Auto sales, Deficit news, Budget news, Germany news, Japan news

Looks like a weak start for 2017: From WardsAuto: Forecast: January Forecast Calls for Low Sales, High Inventory The U.S. automotive industry is expected to a have a slow start in the new year, with January light-vehicle sales down 4.4% from like-2016. … The resulting seasonally adjusted annual rate is 17.0 million ...Read More

Mtg purchase apps, Consumer debt comments

Note the trend: Don Schlagenhauf, chief economist for the St. Louis Fed’s Center for Household Financial Stability, and Lowell Ricketts, the Center’s senior analyst, analyzed consumer credit data and found that a decline in housing-related debt offset growth in other types of consumer debt during the third quarter. “The latest data suggest ...Read More

Redbook retail sales, PMI Markit manufacturing, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, Existing home sales, Trump budget director, CIA on Trump, Mnuchin on $, Euro area surveys

Still back to the lower, pre mini spike levels. Industrial production was up due to elevated utility bills, which might explain why retail sales are low: Highlights Same-store sales growth continued the glacial pace of the prior week and was up just 0.3 percent year-on-year in the January 21 week, a sharp ...Read More

Rental tightness, Trump comments

From the National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC): Apartment Markets Soften in the January NMHC Quarterly Survey — Apartment markets continued to retreat in the January National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC) Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions. All four indexes of Market Tightness (25), Sales Volume (25), Equity Financing (33) and Debt Financing ...Read More