Interest rates, PMI services, Factory orders, ISM services

So I was reminded that I did write and post in November about what might happen if rates went up in anticipation of Fed hiking in a weak loan demand environment. (Thanks David for reminding me!) I was thinking that some portion of whatever borrowing interest there was might no longer qualify, ...Read More

Credit check

The charts show it all went bad around November. And it continues to deteriorate with every passing week, with the latest data showing cars, housing, and employment decelerating accordingly. Must have been some event that set it off? It was around the time of the election, but I can’t recall specifically what ...Read More

Employment, Trade

The chart says it all- deceleration that started when oil capex collapsed not abetting, and the decelerating credit charts indicate much more of same coming: Highlights An unexpectedly weak employment report has put a rate hike at this month’s FOMC in doubt. Nonfarm payrolls rose only 138,000 in May which is nearly ...Read More

ADP employment, Construction spending, PMI and ISM manufacturing, Car sales

While it did spike up some this week, the downtrend is still intact as per the chart: Highlights On the strong side this year, ADP is calling for a resumption of outsized employment gains, at 253,000 for private payrolls in tomorrow’s May employment report vs Econoday’s consensus for 172,000 (Econoday’s consensus has ...Read More

Mortgage purchase applications, ISM Chicago, Pending home sales, Vehicle sales

Another down week but still a bit higher than last year. But actual loan growth is far lower than last year: Trumped up expectations coming down: Highlights Business growth is slowing in the Chicago area with weakness appearing in orders. The May PMI of 55.2, though down more than 3 points in ...Read More

Personal income and spending, consumer confidence, small business hires, gone mainstream…

As expected with prior month’s spending revised up .2. Annual growth rates still not looking so good, as per the charts: Highlights April was mostly a favorable month for the consumer who benefited from strong wage gains, kept money in the bank, and was an active shopper at least compared to the ...Read More

Credit check

If these numbers don’t turn up q2 gdp could be a lot worse than q1: ...Read More

GDP, Durable goods, Profits

Real consumer spending revised up a bit, and not to forget that includes health care premiums, and q2 now looking a lot worse than previously expected: Highlights First-quarter GDP gets a small but much needed upgrade, now at a 1.2 percent rate of annualized growth which is nearly double the advance estimate. ...Read More

Philly Fed State index, Pending legislation, North Korea, Basic income

As previously discussed, seems to me it’s unlikely any of the trumped up expectations will come to pass: McConnell: ‘I don’t know how we get to 50’ votes on ObamaCare repeal (The Hill) Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell says he doesn’t know how Senate Republicans are going to get enough votes to ...Read More

Trade, Inventories, Tax receipts

Larger than expected and last month revised higher, indicating GDP was a bit lower than estimated, and weak sales matched with weak inventories don’t clear the shelves: Highlights A key early indication on the strength of second-quarter GDP is not favorable as the nation’s goods deficit widened $2.5 billion in April to ...Read More