Uncategorized Archive

Personal income and spending, Consumer sentiment

July Personal income revised down to .3 and August only .2 further confirms income growth- the driver of consumption- has slowed down in line with the deceleration in bank lending, and the same seems to be the case with spending, with weak price indicators further confirming the same weak demand narrative. And ...Read More

GDP revision, Inventories, Corporate profits, Trump fundraiser

Revised higher due to inventory building- not good- and weak prices also tend to indicate low demand. And note how q3 gdp estimates have been coming down as well: Highlights Second-quarter GDP proved strong, at an as-expected 3.1 percent annualized rate for the third estimate driven by consumer spending at a 3.3 ...Read More

New home sales, Pending home sales, Durable goods orders, Children

Heading south in line with the deceleration of mortgage lending: Highlights Weakness in the South pulled down new home sales in August as it did in last week’s existing home sales report. New home sales fell sharply in the month to a 560,000 annualized rate vs an upward revised rate of 580,000 ...Read More

Vehicle sales, Homebuyer affordability, Bank loans, FX reserves, Growth index, Rail traffic

Looking like an uptick here, some of it weather related? From WardsAuto: Forecast: SAAR Expected to Surpass 17 Million in September A WardsAuto forecast calls for U.S. light-vehicle sales to reach a 17.5 million-unit seasonally adjusted annual rate in September, following August’s 16.0 million SAAR and ending a 6-month streak of sub-17 ...Read More

Chicago Fed, Small business optimism, NY Fed comments

Note the shift: From NY Fed’s Dudley. I added a chart after several of his statements so you can see what he sees as support for his statements. Looks a lot to me like he’s trying to manage expectations? “The fundamentals supporting continued expansion are generally quite favorable. Low unemployment, sturdy job ...Read More

Retail sales, Industrial production, Euro area trade, Rail week

The story is the weakness is weather related, as was the cpi increase, though not the downward revision for the prior month. (I suppose getting control of the weather would be a useful policy tool for the Fed to hit its targets?) The economy is to some degree path dependent, which in ...Read More

Euro reserves, Small business survey, Municipal revenues

Trumped up expectations continue even as earnings deteriorate: As U.S. Economy Improves, Cities May Be Headed for Another Downturn Cities may be facing a new period of economic stress — even as the national economy continues to improve. According to a National League of Cities (NLC) report released on Tuesday, municipal finance ...Read More

JOLTS, Redbook sales, Rig count, Credit check, NK comment, PMC jersey

Openings higher than hires tells me employers don’t want to pay up, which is also suggested by low wage growth: Highlights In the latest indications of strong, tight conditions in the labor market, job openings rose to a higher-than-expected 6.170 million in July for a 0.9 percent increase from June. Hirings also ...Read More

Factory orders, Euro charts, Oil prices

Manufacturing continues to muddle through: Highlights There’s really only good news in the July factory orders report where the headline, at minus 3.3 percent, reflects a slowing in what were strong prior gains for aircraft orders. The best news is a 6 tenths upward revision to core capital goods orders (nondefense ex-air) ...Read More

Misc. charts, Cryptocoin hedge funds, Bank loans

Interesting charts: Over 50 hedge funds attracting investors who want to go long bitcoin and the rest. Helps explain why the prices are going up even as there is no intrinsic or conversion value whatsoever, which, presuming that to be the case, also means that at some point the mania ends and ...Read More