Housing starts, industrial production, small business index

Growth overall remains sluggish as the economy becomes dependent on private sector credit expansion (private sector deficit spending) to offset the too tight post-Covid fiscal policy.
Fed rate hikes add interest income to the economy as gov pays more interest on the $30+ trillion of public debt, which, if anything, supports rather than dampens demand or credit expansion, but it does contribute to higher prices which further reduces the real, inflation adjusted value of the public debt, which is a fiscal tightening. This is a repeat of 1979 where the increase in the price level exceeded the growth in deficit spending which is functionally the same as the govt running a budget surplus.

Down for the month but so far the weak upward trend remains:

US Housing Starts

Perhaps leveling off at pre-Covid levels:

Big drop in the main index but hiring plans remain elevated:

Consumer sentiment, Federal receipts, CPI

The post-Covid fiscal deficit reduction continues to take its toll:

Higher prices automatically result in a spike in tax receipts:

Higher prices, now largely from energy prices pushing up costs, reduce the inflation adjusted value of the public debt, which acts like a tax on the economy:

CPI index for all consumers

 

With the rate of CPI increase above the rate of deficit spending, the effect is that of a budget surplus:

 

Spiking energy prices as Saudis set prices ever higher shift $ from consumers with high propensities to spend to producers with low propensities to spend, and this won’t end until demand collapses:

Employment, ISM services, vehicle sales, oil price

Leveling off at approximately pre-Covid levels.
The growth rate slowed as deficit spending dropped:
Still in expansion but it has come way down with the post-Covid war.
Drop in deficit spending that has been driving the general deceleration:

Not looking good. The parts shortage is largely over, so it is about a lack of demand as deficit spending falls and prices in general rise faster than incomes:

Oil prices (not money supply, for example) continue to drive headline inflation as Saudis continue to set the OSP spreads above ‘fair economic value’ which continuously drive price higher until demand collapses:

And as Saudis set price and then pump and sell as much as is demanded at their price.
Increased production indicates demand is increasing for their output:

Oil Jumps After EIA Confirms Large Crude Inventory Draw | OilPrice.com

Crude oil prices rose further after the Energy Information Administration reported today an inventory draw of 5.1 million barrels for the week to May 27.

This compared with a draw of 1 million barrels for the previous week.

At 414.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are some 15 percent below the five-year average for this time of the year. 

Consumer sentiment, NY manufacturing, oil prices

2008 type of collapse:

Lowest ever:

Saudi OSPs are still at premiums to fair market value, and the price trend is still up. If it keeps going all heck breaks loose:

The President threw the strategic petroleum reserve at it, and lots of other nations did the same, to no avail. And the calendar spreads in the futures market is indicating absolute spot shortages: