Uncategorized Archive

Philly Fed, labor demand, bank loans

Manufacturing settling down to ‘neutral’ after peaking well before the rate hikes as post-Covid shortages are alleviated: Labor demand also peaked well before the rate hikes: Still no sign rate hikes have slowed lending ;) ...Read More

Housing starts, industrial production, small business index

Growth overall remains sluggish as the economy becomes dependent on private sector credit expansion (private sector deficit spending) to offset the too tight post-Covid fiscal policy. Fed rate hikes add interest income to the economy as gov pays more interest on the $30+ trillion of public debt, which, if anything, supports rather ...Read More

Consumer sentiment, Federal receipts, CPI

The post-Covid fiscal deficit reduction continues to take its toll: Higher prices automatically result in a spike in tax receipts: Higher prices, now largely from energy prices pushing up costs, reduce the inflation adjusted value of the public debt, which acts like a tax on the economy:   With the rate of ...Read More

Employment, ISM services, vehicle sales, oil price

Leveling off at approximately pre-Covid levels. The growth rate slowed as deficit spending dropped: Still in expansion but it has come way down with the post-Covid war. Drop in deficit spending that has been driving the general deceleration: Not looking good. The parts shortage is largely over, so it is about a ...Read More

Personal consumption and expenditures

Pretty much back on the pre-Covid trend line: But income is on the decline: So consumers are spending more than their incomes, mainly through borrowing: ...Read More

Richmond Fed, unemployment claims, vehicle sales, Philly state coincident indicator

Employment is still growing. Wages aren’t keeping up with prices so people are taking jobs out of necessity and to get healthcare: No sign of recession yet: ...Read More

Philly Fed Manufacturing, home sales, miles traveled

Post-war collapse theme intact: Falling back to the pre-Covid war trend line: We’re back burning fuel with abandon: ...Read More

Retail sales, homebuilder sentiment, housing starts

Not growing when adjusted for inflation: Down but still high vs historical data: Trend still intact:       Trend still intact: ...Read More

Consumer sentiment, NY manufacturing, oil prices

2008 type of collapse: Lowest ever: Saudi OSPs are still at premiums to fair market value, and the price trend is still up. If it keeps going all heck breaks loose: The President threw the strategic petroleum reserve at it, and lots of other nations did the same, to no avail. And ...Read More

Small business optimism index, record budget surplus, commodities

Not good: This is the automatic fiscal stabilizers doing their thing to slow things down during a recovery, and they keep increasing the pressure until growth goes negative. Additionally, with some $30 trillion of public debt, an 8% increase in prices means the value of the public debt- the net money supply ...Read More