Uncategorized Archive

Chicago Fed, Small business optimism, NY Fed comments

Note the shift: From NY Fed’s Dudley. I added a chart after several of his statements so you can see what he sees as support for his statements. Looks a lot to me like he’s trying to manage expectations? “The fundamentals supporting continued expansion are generally quite favorable. Low unemployment, sturdy job ...Read More

Retail sales, Industrial production, Euro area trade, Rail week

The story is the weakness is weather related, as was the cpi increase, though not the downward revision for the prior month. (I suppose getting control of the weather would be a useful policy tool for the Fed to hit its targets?) The economy is to some degree path dependent, which in ...Read More

Euro reserves, Small business survey, Municipal revenues

Trumped up expectations continue even as earnings deteriorate: As U.S. Economy Improves, Cities May Be Headed for Another Downturn Cities may be facing a new period of economic stress — even as the national economy continues to improve. According to a National League of Cities (NLC) report released on Tuesday, municipal finance ...Read More

JOLTS, Redbook sales, Rig count, Credit check, NK comment, PMC jersey

Openings higher than hires tells me employers don’t want to pay up, which is also suggested by low wage growth: Highlights In the latest indications of strong, tight conditions in the labor market, job openings rose to a higher-than-expected 6.170 million in July for a 0.9 percent increase from June. Hirings also ...Read More

Factory orders, Euro charts, Oil prices

Manufacturing continues to muddle through: Highlights There’s really only good news in the July factory orders report where the headline, at minus 3.3 percent, reflects a slowing in what were strong prior gains for aircraft orders. The best news is a 6 tenths upward revision to core capital goods orders (nondefense ex-air) ...Read More

Misc. charts, Cryptocoin hedge funds, Bank loans

Interesting charts: Over 50 hedge funds attracting investors who want to go long bitcoin and the rest. Helps explain why the prices are going up even as there is no intrinsic or conversion value whatsoever, which, presuming that to be the case, also means that at some point the mania ends and ...Read More

Employment, Construction spending, Auto sales, Tax plan and debt ceiling

Weaker than expected, downward revisions, depressed earnings growth and participation rate. And note how the year over year growth has been going down now in, for all practical purposes a straight line, for over 2 1/2 years, when the shale boom ended and oil capex collapsed: Highlights August payroll growth, though solid, ...Read More

Personal income and spending, Pending home sales

Personal income growth remains weal as per the charts, which also showed a sharp drop in the personal savings rate, which generally forecasts reductions in spending: Highlights Vital signs for the consumer are strong but inflation is completely lifeless, based on a mixed personal income & outlays report for July. Income is ...Read More

Mtg applications, GDP, Personal savings, Corporate profits, ADP employment, Federal tax reciepts

Purchase applications were down again, as housing weakness reflects the drop in the growth of mortgage credit: Highlights Low mortgage rates are failing to entice home buyers, whose activity declined for the third straight week according to the Mortgage Bankers’ Association. Purchase applications for home mortgages fell a seasonally adjusted 3.0 percent ...Read More

Trade, SUV’s, Redbook retail sales, Trump and Harvey

No ‘improvement’ here: Highlights Third-quarter GDP is off to a slow start, at least for international trade in goods where the July trade gap widened more than $1 billion to $65.1 billion. Exports fell 1.3 percent and were pulled down by a sharp fall in vehicles and also consumer goods which are ...Read More