Category Archives: Uncategorized

Chart from Pavlina Tcherneva

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Business Roundtable survey falls from 95.4 to 86.6

Whoops… Third quarter US growth outlook cloudy: Survey Sept 6 (CNBC) — Corporate executives are scaling back plans for sales, capital spending and job creation this quarter, according to a the Business Roundtable (BRT) survey Tuesday, consistent with other indicators … Continue reading

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Industrial production

The chart looks true to the ‘down for the cold winter, followed by a bounce back, then back down’ narrative as previously discussed: Industrial Production Highlights Industrial production slipped 0.1 percent in August after a gain of 0.2 percent the … Continue reading

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follow up on today’s releases

Consumer Sentiment up but stuck at historically low levels: Full size image The chart shows how, over time, technology allows inventories to be lower than otherwise. The latest ‘counter trend’ drift to somewhat higher inventories have been ‘inflating’ GDP- adding … Continue reading

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Retail Sales, Univ of MIch consumer sentiment

Seems 16 states had sales tax holidays in August that might have caused August sales to be up a bit and perhaps ‘borrow’ from September: Tax Holidays Note the area circled in orange shows a steady decline in the monthly … Continue reading

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Wholesale Sales

This came out today and was up some from last month, and touted as a show of strength. Nothing to write home about best I can see:

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NFIB

Nothing happening here. Note from the chart that it’s still near the lows of prior cycles. From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): NFIB SBET Sees Slight Bump in August August’s Optimism Index rose 0.4 points to 96.1 making … Continue reading

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ADP, productivity, trade, PMI services, Toll Bros. report

Maybe some evidence the 1.2 million who lost benefits at year end and took menial jobs phenomenon has run its course, and H2 will show substantially lower employment growth than H1? When it was going up it was ‘accelerating’, so … Continue reading

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September govt rush to spend

I got this emailed to me. Makes sense. Did US Macro Just Jump The Shark? As in past years, this spike in activity is extrapolated by the smartest people in the room, leaving the reality to miss expectations for the … Continue reading

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Today’s factory order charts

This doesn’t look like much of a recovery? The export game is getting tougher as well: Tech not so hot either: Here’s the report: Highlights Skewed by Boeing orders at the Farnborough Airshow, factory orders surged 10.5 percent in July. … Continue reading

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