Uncategorized Archive

Credit check

Starting to look seriously ominous: When delinquencies start going up, banks tend to start tightening up lending standards a bit to keep them in check, which tends to slow down lending, which causes the economy to soften, resulting in a downward spiral that doesn’t end until public sector deficit spending increases sufficiently: ...Read More

Service sector, Household income, Expectations

These service sector surveys are ‘soft data’: Markit : ISM: Another income measure that’s going nowhere: Trumped up expectations: Gauging Firm Optimism in a Time of Transition ...Read More

Fed Atlanta, Saudi output, Unemployment claims

Yes, recent ‘hard data’ has driving down GDP estimates, trumped up expectations not withstanding: At current pricing the Saudis are seeing less demand, due to others pumping more most likely: This chart tells me that it’s gotten a lot harder to be eligible for unemployment benefits this cycle, and an automatic fiscal ...Read More

Personal income and spending, Construction spending, Light vehicle sales, Trade, GPD

The theme of trumped up expectations and actual data heading south continues: Note the real disposable personal income chart- not good!! Highlights Inflation is nearly at the Fed’s 2.0 percent target, up a sharp 3 tenths to 1.9 percent for the PCE price index which is the strongest rate since April 2012. ...Read More

Pending home sales, Durable goods orders, Dallas Fed, Bank loans, Japan

Same story, expectations trumped up but actual numbers not so good: Bad: Highlights Just when existing home sales seemed to be showing lift the pending home sales index, which tracks initial contract signings, is down 2.8 percent in the January report. This points to weakness for final resales in February and March. ...Read More

New home sales, Trucking, Trump comments

Up, though less then expected. Nothing here to suggest any kind of economic acceleration: Highlights New home sales have lost some traction and it’s not because of tightening supply. At 555,000, January’s annualized pace came in more than 20,000 below the Econoday consensus and includes a big downward revision, not to December ...Read More

Mtg purchase apps, Existing home sales, Architecture billings

Down again, and these are seasonally adjusted: Highlights Purchase applications for home mortgages fell a seasonally adjusted 3 percent in the February 17 week, while refinancing applications decreased by 1 percent to the lowest level since January. Unadjusted, the purchase index rose 2 percent from the prior week and was up 10 ...Read More

PMI, Earnings, euro zone holdings, oil related comments

Trumped up expectations cooling a bit? PMI Manufacturing Index Flash Services: Initial earnings estimates have tended to fall: This is extraordinary, as their liabilities are most likely predominately euro denominated, which is what I’d call a ‘fundamental short’ position. That is, this has been part of the ‘portfolio shifting’ that has been ...Read More

Bank lending, NYC new construction, GDP chart

Manhattan condo market cracking, developers roll out big incentives Manhattan saw rampant new construction since the recession, and thousands of new luxury units flooded the market, with stark consequences. The median sale price for new construction ended 2016 down 44 percent, compared with the end of 2015, according to a quarterly report ...Read More

Euro area current account, E commerce retail sales, Tax refunds

This is very euro friendly stuff. Euro Area Current Account Eurozone’s current account surplus widened sharply to EUR 47.0 billion from EUR 41.4 billion in the same month of the previous year. The primary income surplus increased firmly to EUR 18.2 billion from EUR 13.0 billion a year ago and the goods ...Read More