Uncategorized Archive

Cleveland Fed on low wage growth, Atlanta Fed Q2 gdpnow, factory orders

Behind the Slow Pace of Wage Growth Factory Orders Highlights Boosted by aircraft and also by motor vehicles, factory orders rose an as-expected 2.1 percent in March. March’s gain ends what were 7 straight declines as February, which was initially at plus 0.2 percent, is revised now to minus 0.1 percent. The ...Read More

Redbook retail sales, consumer confidence, Richmond Fed

Not good again. Looks like more than a ‘soft spot’ as so far no improvement for Q2: Redbook Highlights It’s hard to make heads or tails of weekly retail sales data surrounding Easter and its shifting comparisons. Redbook’s same-store year-on-year sales tally came in at a very weak plus 1.4 percent in ...Read More

wage growth and business investment

Interesting how these two reports relate to each other. And the circled section is the last time the street was screaming about ‘wage inflation’ saying that every time in the past it went up as it had to that point it kept going up for the next 4 years. But it does ...Read More

Mortgage purchase apps, Durable goods orders

Still looking stone cold dead to me, with risk of going even lower. Purchase apps up only 3% from a dismal period last year: MBA Mortgage Applications Way below expectations and prior month revised down, causing GDP estimates to be further cut as well: Durable Goods Orders Highlights The manufacturing sector continues ...Read More

Start of PMC challenge in august

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car sales fall again

No surging consumer here either. Third month down… U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decrease to 16.2 million annual rate in February By Bill McBride Based on a WardsAuto estimate, light vehicle sales were at a 16.16 million SAAR in February. That is up 5.4% from February 2014, and down 2.4% from the 16.55 ...Read More


Warren, euro continue to go down vs usd. Do you think draghi goal is to reach eur/usd 1:1 ? Good question! No one thinks the ECB is buying dollars so if that’s the case the world is getting short euros directly and indirectly in very large size, as per the EU trade ...Read More

EU continues to negotiate with Greece

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Empire survey, MS on consumer spending, Housing index, e commerce

All these surveys are now declining: From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey The February 2015 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity continued to expand at a modest pace for New York manufacturers. The headline general business conditions index edged down two points to 7.8. The new orders index ...Read More

Consumer Sentiment

Whoops This isn’t supposed to happen with the lower gas prices: Consumer Sentiment Highlights Consumer sentiment remains very strong but it did move down after spiking in January, to 93.6 for the mid-month February reading vs January’s 98.1 which was the best reading in 11 years. The 93.6 reading is still very ...Read More