Uncategorized Archive

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, Retail sales, Redbook retail sales, Business inventories

The charts of all the components look just as bad. And note the collapse after oil capex collapsed: Highlights The small business optimism index rose 0.2 points in May to 93.8, slightly extending April’s 1 point bounce back from 2-year lows but remaining well below the 42-year average of 98. Four of ...Read More

Rail traffic, Employment agency chart, Growth vs cost cutting chart

Rail Week Ending 04 June 2016: Rail Contraction Accelerates By Steven Hansen June 10 (Econintersect) — Week 22 of 2016 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) contracted according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. The improvement seen last week evaporated, and was likely ...Read More

JOLTS, Unemployment claims, Wholesale inventories and Sales

The deceleration in jobs openings released yesterday leads the deceleration in employment. Downward job revisions also mean lower income estimates, so watch for personal income and savings to be revised down as well. And it all started decelerating after oil capex collapsed at the end of 2014. Job Openings Hit Record High, ...Read More

Tax receipts

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Mtg purchase apps, Productivity, Unemployment survey, Article submitted

From the MBA: The Refinance Index increased 7 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 12 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 12 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent lower than the same week one year ago. Highlights Purchase applications ...Read More

Saudi pricing, Consumer credit, Redbook retail sales, Fed discussion

Lower than expected as last month’s higher print reverses. Remember all the hoopla over last month’s number? And how the consumer was finally spending? I suspect you’ll hear nothing about how that’s not the case after all, and note how the chart shows it’s been decelerating since the collapse of oil capex: ...Read More

Fed’s labor market index, Saudi price hikes

This went from bad to worse but they don’t seem to pay much attention to it: Labor Market Conditions Index Highlights Last week’s employment report was very weak and is reflected in May’s labor market conditions index which came in at minus 4.8 for the fifth straight negative reading and the lowest ...Read More

Employment report, PMI services, ISM non manufacturing, Factory orders

Continuing to decelerate. As previously discussed, I see no chance of a reversal until deficit spending- public or private- picks up to offset the unspent income/savings desires: Employment Situation Highlights The assessment of the labor market, not to mention the outlook for consumer spending, just came down as nonfarm payrolls proved much ...Read More

Corporate profits

Seems the corporate profits report includes the Fed’s profits, all of which get turned over to the Treasury, of course… How the Fed Stopped the “Corporate Profit Recession” (and the Media Fell for it) By Wolf Tichter The end of the corporate “profit recession” has been declared last week. It was based ...Read More


A forecast for tomorrow’s employment report: ADP Employment Report Highlights The May employment report isn’t expected to be very strong but it may not prove, in contrast to expectations, to be any weaker than April, at least based on ADP’s estimate for private payrolls which comes in at 173,000 vs ADP’s revised ...Read More