Uncategorized Archive

Empire survey, MS on consumer spending, Housing index, e commerce

All these surveys are now declining: From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey The February 2015 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity continued to expand at a modest pace for New York manufacturers. The headline general business conditions index edged down two points to 7.8. The new orders index ...Read More

Consumer Sentiment

Whoops This isn’t supposed to happen with the lower gas prices: Consumer Sentiment Highlights Consumer sentiment remains very strong but it did move down after spiking in January, to 93.6 for the mid-month February reading vs January’s 98.1 which was the best reading in 11 years. The 93.6 reading is still very ...Read More

Dallas Fed

who would have thought?… Dallas Fed Mfg Survey Highlights Texas factory activity was flat in January. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, came in at 0.7, indicating output was essentially unchanged from December. Other survey measures also reflected sluggish activity during the month. The capacity utilization index fell ...Read More

credit check, oil capex

A zig down here often means a similar increase in bank lending as one substitutes for the other: ;) Steepest Oil-Rig Drop Shows Shale Losing Fight to OPEC ...Read More

My Tuesday New School presentation has been postponed until May

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Jobs, Philly Fed

This tick up might mean nothing, but could also be the start of a move up due to the fall off in oil capital expenditures: Jobless Claims Highlights Jobless claims jumped sharply in the January 10 week, up 19,000 to a 316,000 level that’s the highest since September. The 4-week average is ...Read More

Brazil inflation

Maybe somehow the higher interest rates set by the CB support the higher rates of inflation? ;) Brazil’s Inflation Rises Even Amid Low Growth (WSJ) Brazil’s official IPCA consumer-price index rose 6.41% in 2014. The IPCA rose 5.91% in 2013. Annual inflation was driven up by an 8% increase in food prices and a ...Read More

PMI Manufacturing Index, ISM manufacturing, Construction spending

PMI Manufacturing Index Highlights Slowing growth is the signal from Markit’s US manufacturing sample where the final composite score came in at 53.9, down from November’s 54.8. The flash reading for December was 53.7. New business gains and output both slowed in the month which respondents tied to uncertainty over the global ...Read More

demand for saudi oil remains high

As previously discussed, the Saudis set price, currently via spreads, etc. and let the refiners buy all they want at those posted prices. And as the chart shows, demand for Saudi oil has remained relatively high and relatively stable. That is, there has been no material drop in demand. ...Read More

ecri still negative

As previously discussed, this is dismissed because of a prior false recession alarm. At that time the deficit was, in my opinion, high enough to support positive growth. Today’s a different story. The economy always requires deficit spending from some agent to offset the tendency to not spend income (demand leakages). Looks ...Read More