Uncategorized Archive

Payrolls, Factory orders, Foreign trade, Retailers, Boston rents

The year over year chart continues its 2 year deceleration unabated. No telling where it ends but the end will coincide with increased deficit spending, private or public: Highlights Job growth may be the new economic policy but wage inflation may be the risk. Nonfarm payrolls rose a lower-than-expected 156,000 in December ...Read More

ADP, ISM non manufacturing

While surveys remain Trumped up, at least so far when it comes to actual numbers the deceleration continues, and can’t reverse without a commensurate increase in deficit spending, public or private: Highlights ADP is pointing to a softer-than-expected employment report on Friday. ADP’s estimate for private payrolls is 153,000, a still respectable ...Read More

Car sales, NYC real estate

Car sales better than expected, but the annual rate of growth has slowed and 2016 was up less than .5% vs 2015 year. So if vehicles added less than the year before, something else has to add more than it did the year before, or the annual GDP growth slowed: Sales for ...Read More

Mtg purchase apps, Redbook Retail sales, Restaurant sales

Purchase apps now down year over year, and less than half of what they used to be pre crisis: Highlights Purchase applications for home mortgages fell 2.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in the December 30 week compared to the level 2 weeks earlier, which was the last prior reading due ...Read More

Construction spending, Manufacturing surveys, China

A bit of a bump up going into year end. Could be about expiring tax breaks as has happened in prior years: Highlights Construction had been lagging through most of 2016 but, like the factory sector, appears to have picked up steam going into year-end. Spending rose 0.9 percent in November which ...Read More

Credit check, Publication

The now two year deceleration continues: First time published in a ‘mainstream’ economics journal: Dear Prof. Silipo & Prof. Mosler, I am happy to inform you that the Board of Editors of the Journal of Policy Models, upon recommendation from 4 referees, has approved the publication of your study: Maximizing Price Stability ...Read More

Putin, Maryland business activity

Best to all for the New Year, and may our trumped up expectations eventuate! And last chance to make a 2016 PMC donation. Over $47 million raised, and the same $47 million donated. All costs are sponsored so your donation goes directly to Dana Farber for research! click here to donate: http://profile.pmc.org/WM0015 ...Read More

Trade, Inventories, Proposals before Congress

As previously discussed, exports are falling and imports climbing, with lots more to go: Highlights Trade looks to be a major negative that will be holding down fourth-quarter GDP. The advance trade deficit in goods widened sharply for a second straight month in November, to $65.3 billion following a revised $61.9 billion ...Read More

Redbook retail sales, Pending home sales, Stock buy backs, Spending, Japan stocks, Bank regulation, UN resolution

This is the time of year when year over year growth tends to increase, pulling up the rest of the year’s growth. But note how that increase has declined along with the general increases: Along with what looks to me like Trumped up expectations actual sales remain depressed: Any expected Trump bump ...Read More

Consumer confidence, Housing prices, Dallas and Richmond Fed manufacturing indexes, Moore comments

Apart from the Trumped up future expectations and the sagging retail sales reports, expectations remain elevated: Highlights Consumer confidence shows no sign of slowing. The index is up 12.9 points since the November election in gains driven by older consumers. The level for December is 113.7 which is the highest reading since ...Read More