Uncategorized Archive

Mortgage purchase apps, consumer sentiment, bank loans, Fed Atlanta GDP nowcast

Down from the post-Covid bounce but not in any kind of collapse: More evidence we had a soft landing, cushioned by the rate hikes that supported personal income. And no sign the rate hikes have slowed lending. If anything looks like they support it: Back to pre-Covid levels of GDP growth: ...Read More


As previously discussed, with oil prices coming down the inflation problem ends. (The month to month change in CPI was 0) And what happens next depends on what oil prices do next. I suspect they go a lot higher as Saudi OSPs remain elevated and speculative long positions taken on when the ...Read More

Consumer credit, Supply Chain, China exports

This is about borrowing to spend, indicating positive spending and GDP: Pressures easing here: And this may indicate global spending is holding up: So in short we had Covid deficit spending north of 15% of GDP supporting strong growth, followed by a collapse in deficit spending that resulted in a strong deceleration ...Read More

Exports, employment

This is adding support to employment and output, even as consumption weakens. The relatively low cost of energy should keep it going for a while: No sign of recession here: Still falling short of price increases so obviously not the cause: ...Read More

Manufacturing PMI, construction spending, hires, loans

Still in positive growth: A bit softer after a post-Covid acceleration: Took a zig down last month but still very high and still trending higher: Lending continues higher well after the rate hikes, which presumably work to cut demand by dampening lending: ...Read More

Personal consumption and income, personal interest income

Flattening with the fiscal contraction, but no recession yet: Thank goodness for the rate hikes and their support of personal income ;) ...Read More

GDP, population, vehicle sales

Weak headline, but so far not looking as bad as most mistakenly expected with Fed rate hikes: Slowing in real terms but growing: Growing fast in nominal terms: This is telling: They’ve generally been falling off for several years, though up a bit for the last three months since the rate hikes: ...Read More

Durable goods orders, oil prices, Saudi OSP’s

Not adjusted for inflation but not showing signs of recession: If oil prices remain near current levels the inflation is over and we’re back to pre-Covid low inflation and slow growth, with a government deficit of maybe 5-6% of GDP (including the new interest expense from the rate hikes which support the ...Read More

DFO optimism, homebuyer competition, Architecture index, mortgage purchase apps, builder confidence

This makes sense to me. We have had a post-Covid war slowdown in federal spending that is evidenced by the decelerating economy. But the federal deficit is still high enough to keep things muddling through at modest growth, helped some by the rate hikes which are universally believed to slow things down ...Read More

Shipping, CPI

Worst of the shipping issues are behind us: Wholesale price growth is moderating as well: Core CPI growth also moderating: Headline CPI continues to grow, and it is mainly driven by energy prices: Recently, however, energy prices, which have been the primary driver of higher prices, have dropped substantially, so the next ...Read More