Uncategorized Archive

Small business index, Redbook retail sales, Wholesale trade, Jolts

Up a bit, but still weak and in a downtrend, and employment declining: Highlights The small business optimism index rose 0.7 points in June to 94.5, the third monthly increase since falling to a 2-year low in March. The improvement in small business optimism slightly exceeded expectations, though the index remains in ...Read More

Fed’s labor market conditions index, Tax revenues

Not good: Not a good sign when tax revenue growth decelerates like this: ...Read More

Consumer credit, Corporate profits, Bank lending

Still decelerating on a year over year basis: United States Consumer Credit Change Consumer credit in the United States increased by $18.56 billion in May 2016 following a downwardly revised $13.4 billion rise in April and above market expectations of a $16 billion gain. This was decelerating and below stall speed when ...Read More

Employment, Bank losses, German Banks

Nice rebound as Verizon workers return to work, but the year over year deceleration continues and, of course, this number will be revised next month. And the lower average hourly earnings gains could put off fears of the US turning into Zimbabwe and Weimar for several hours: The payroll gain in June ...Read More

Unemployment claims, Online help wanted ads, Italian bank comment

Record lows, particularly population adjusted, for record periods of time, and no one even suggests it might be because they’ve become that much harder to get? Meanwhile, the consequence is less govt. spending than otherwise potentially making this recession that much worse: Note the peak was just after oil capital expenditures collapsed: ...Read More

Trade, PMI services, ISM non manufacturing, Atlanta Fed

More weakness: Highlights There is some weakness in the May trade report as the nation’s trade deficit widened sharply to $41.1 billion from April’s $37.4 billion. The net deficit for goods widened to $62.2 billion from April’s $58.6 billion while the net surplus for services narrowed slightly to $21.1 billion. In a ...Read More

Factory orders, Small business borrowing, NY business conditions, Shadow lending, US jobs diffusion index

Worse than expected as another April gain reverts in May: US Factory Orders Fall More Than Expected New orders for manufactured goods shrank 1% mom in May, compared to a downwardly revised 1.8% gain in April. Figures came slightly worse than market expectations of a 0.9% drop. Meanwhile, orders for non-defense capital ...Read More

Saudi pricing, UK construction

Looks like prices a bit higher for Europe and lower for the rest? Market price action over the next few weeks will tell us if this works to lower prices: This was before the Brexit vote: ...Read More

Vehicle sales

This is a major negative. Along with today’s construction report seems to me my narrative of a general deceleration since oil capex collapsed is intact. Particularly the part about no recovery until after deficit spending- private or public- accelerates: Highlights The first hard look at consumer spending in June is negative as ...Read More

PMI manufacturing, ISM manufacturing, Construction spending, China PMI, Manhattan apartment sales

Manufacturing historically just chugs along at maybe a 3% growth rate or so. However as oil capital expenditures collapsed, manufacturing ratcheted down accordingly. And now it looks like it may be resuming it’s traditional modest growth rate from a much lower base than otherwise. This is not to say that the reduction ...Read More