Uncategorized Archive

Consumer credit, Commercial Real Estate index

Nice move up vs last month but doesn’t move the year over year needle, and this series has a history of spikes up that are immediately reversed: A bit lower but too soon to suggest the modest uptrend is reversing: ...Read More

Jobs, Wholesalers sales and inventories, Atlanta Fed GDP forecast

Less than expected, July/August total revised down, earnings gain less than expected. Yes, unemployment was up because the labor force increased, but arguably it was functionally that large in the months before, etc, which means, functionally, unemployment had been that much higher all along, etc. etc. and all to my suspicions that ...Read More

Jobless claims, Chain Store Sales, Fed comment, truck orders, Saudi pricing

This low, and not adjusted for population- tell me it’s not because they are much harder to get, thanks! Initial Jobless Claims Near Four Decade Low -5k to 249k in latest weekly survey. In the week ending October 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 249k, a decrease of ...Read More

Rents, GDP per capita, Bacon prices, Atlanta Fed

Some Big U.S. Cities See Apartment Rents Fall for First Time in Years By Laura Kusisto Oct 4 (WSJ) — Rents in San Francisco declined 3%, while they fell about 1% in New York and edged lower in Houston and San Jose, Calif., the first drops in those markets since 2010, according ...Read More

Mortgage purchase apps, ADP employment, International trade, PMI services, ISM services, Factory orders

The year over year change not looking so good: Highlights Purchase applications for home mortgages were down just 0.1 percent from the prior week in the September 30 week, but the comparison with the year ago week plunged sharply into deeply negative territory at minus 14 percent. Refinancing applications were up 5.0 ...Read More

Vehicle sales, Manhattan apartment sales, ISM NY, Redbook retail sales

Based on a preliminary estimate from WardsAuto, light vehicle sales were at a 17.65 million SAAR in September. That is down about 2% from September 2015, and up 4.3% from the 16.92 million annual sales rate last month. Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/#ycdZ4cVpGQLvjHoI.99 Manhattan apartment sales plunge 19 percent By Robert Frank ISM ...Read More

Construction spending, PMI Manufacturing, ISM manufacturing, Atlanta Fed

Worse than expected, prior month revised lower, and year over year now in contraction as the downtrend continues. Watch for further downward q3 GDP revisions: Highlights Multi-family units are just about the only strength in what is a weak construction spending report for August, down 0.7 percent on the month with July ...Read More

Restaurant Performance Index, Bank loans

Big move down into contraction as the trend continues: This downtrend is intact as well: Flattened out as oil capex collapsed, and well below levels of prior cycl: ...Read More

Personal income and spending, ISM Chicago, Consumer sentiment, Atlanta Fed GDP forecast

The consumer isn’t ‘coming back’ until after deficit spending, public or private, increases to offset unspent income, and ‘putting money into savings’ (below) is better described as ‘increasing borrowing less’. Also, consumption spending includes health care premiums and utility bills, and when they go up it tends to later take away from ...Read More

Pending home sales, Auto sales, Wholesale trade

Still on the downward glide path since the collapse in oil capex: Highlights Existing home sales, in sharp contrast to new home sales, haven’t been able to build any strength this year and today’s pending home sales report points to outright weakness in the coming months. The pending index fell a very ...Read More