Uncategorized Archive
Mortgage purchase apps, consumer sentiment, bank loans, Fed Atlanta GDP nowcast
Uncategorized
Aug 13, 2022
Down from the post-Covid bounce but not in any kind of collapse: More evidence we had a soft landing, cushioned by the rate hikes that supported personal income. And no sign the rate hikes have slowed lending. If anything looks like they support it: Back to pre-Covid levels of GDP growth:
...Read More
CPI, PPI
Uncategorized
Aug 11, 2022
As previously discussed, with oil prices coming down the inflation problem ends. (The month to month change in CPI was 0) And what happens next depends on what oil prices do next. I suspect they go a lot higher as Saudi OSPs remain elevated and speculative long positions taken on when the
...Read More
Consumer credit, Supply Chain, China exports
Uncategorized
Aug 07, 2022
This is about borrowing to spend, indicating positive spending and GDP: Pressures easing here: And this may indicate global spending is holding up: So in short we had Covid deficit spending north of 15% of GDP supporting strong growth, followed by a collapse in deficit spending that resulted in a strong deceleration
...Read More
Exports, employment
Uncategorized
Aug 05, 2022
This is adding support to employment and output, even as consumption weakens. The relatively low cost of energy should keep it going for a while: No sign of recession here: Still falling short of price increases so obviously not the cause:
...Read More
Manufacturing PMI, construction spending, hires, loans
Uncategorized
Aug 03, 2022
Still in positive growth: A bit softer after a post-Covid acceleration: Took a zig down last month but still very high and still trending higher: Lending continues higher well after the rate hikes, which presumably work to cut demand by dampening lending:
...Read More
Personal consumption and income, personal interest income
Uncategorized
Jul 30, 2022
Flattening with the fiscal contraction, but no recession yet: Thank goodness for the rate hikes and their support of personal income ;)
...Read More
GDP, population, vehicle sales
Uncategorized
Jul 28, 2022
Weak headline, but so far not looking as bad as most mistakenly expected with Fed rate hikes: Slowing in real terms but growing: Growing fast in nominal terms: This is telling: They’ve generally been falling off for several years, though up a bit for the last three months since the rate hikes:
...Read More
Durable goods orders, oil prices, Saudi OSP’s
Uncategorized
Jul 27, 2022
Not adjusted for inflation but not showing signs of recession: If oil prices remain near current levels the inflation is over and we’re back to pre-Covid low inflation and slow growth, with a government deficit of maybe 5-6% of GDP (including the new interest expense from the rate hikes which support the
...Read More
DFO optimism, homebuyer competition, Architecture index, mortgage purchase apps, builder confidence
Uncategorized
Jul 20, 2022
This makes sense to me. We have had a post-Covid war slowdown in federal spending that is evidenced by the decelerating economy. But the federal deficit is still high enough to keep things muddling through at modest growth, helped some by the rate hikes which are universally believed to slow things down
...Read More
Shipping, CPI
Uncategorized
Jul 15, 2022
Worst of the shipping issues are behind us: Wholesale price growth is moderating as well: Core CPI growth also moderating: Headline CPI continues to grow, and it is mainly driven by energy prices: Recently, however, energy prices, which have been the primary driver of higher prices, have dropped substantially, so the next
...Read More