Uncategorized Archive

Tax receipts, Retail sales control group, Consumer sentiment

Weak U.S. tax receipts suggest things are not so good for the U.S. consumer even as employment continues to grow, Deutsche Bank Chief U.S. Economist Joseph LaVorgna said Monday.The three-month moving average for U.S. jobs gains remains “good” at around 200,000 positions per month, but growth in tax receipts has fallen from ...Read More

Retail sales, Consumer sentiment, Euro lending, Rail week

Better than expected and some upward revisions as well. Retail Sales Highlights The consumer snapped back to life in April, driving retail sales 1.3 percent higher to beat Econoday’s consensus by 4 tenths and the high estimate by 1 tenth. Gains are spread throughout most of the report. Autos are the key ...Read More

Non performing loans, Working poor, China export policy, STX-STT ferry

Check out the second chart: 2016 Q1 call report data is available at BankRegData.com. Industry wide assets leapt to $16.293 Trillion adding an amazing $325.59 Billion (2.04%) in the 1st Quarter. The $325.59 Billion increase is the largest since (you guessed it) the $337.96 Billion jump in 2008 Q1 – a span ...Read More

China, Fed’s labor market index

More evidence global demand is slowing as both exports and imports fell. In any case the trade surplus continues, providing fundamental currency strength which probably translates into continuing fx reserve builds: China’s exports drop again in April; imports also plunge Highlights Employment has been the economy’s central strength but has not been ...Read More

Employment report, consumer credit

The chart shows the year over year and ongoing deceleration that in general began when oil capex collapsed. Nor will there be a reversal until after deficit spending increases- public or private- and I see no evidence of that happening: Employment Situation Highlights Add employment to those reports showing weakness, at least ...Read More

Euro reserves, Rail week, St. Louis Fed, China, Profits and Payrolls

The euro level is in dollar terms, but in any case, as previously discussed, the chart shows that there was an exit from the euro when the ECB initiated its aggressive interest rate and QE policies. And the way I see it it was that selling that weakened the euro, not anything ...Read More

UK, health care costs, US labor force

As discussed back when the law was first proposed, this version of ‘moral hazard’ renders the entire program unworkable and to the best of my knowledge and understanding there is no ‘fix’: Health Insurers Struggle to Offset New Costs May 4 (WSJ) — Insurers have begun to propose big premium increases for ...Read More

Saudi pricing, layoffs

If true, the $1.10 increase in the differential for Asia is substantial. However the other, much smaller adjustments are not material, so it’s hard to say from this information whether or not this is a policy move designed to stabilize prices at current levels: (Bloomberg) — Saudi Aramco raised prices for most ...Read More

Mtg purchase apps, ADP, Trade, Factory orders

Same story, depressed and growing too slowly to matter: MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights Purchase applications for home mortgages managed to rise 1.0 percent in the April 29 week, but refinancing continued to decline, down 6.0 percent after falling 5.0 percent in the prior week. Though purchase applications are 13 percent higher than ...Read More

Car sales, Home prices

Car sales came in about as expected. Note the year over year 3 month moving average continues its deceleration, and so far not adding as much to growth this year as last year: The luxury home market may be losing some of its luster. Average sales prices for homes listed at $1 ...Read More