Uncategorized Archive

GDP, Consumer confidence, Redbook retail sales, Headlines

Revised up a bit as expected, pretty much all from revising up consumer spending. And it’s still a soybean export and inventory building story: Highlights The third quarter has gotten a meaningful upgrade. The second estimate is 3 tenths higher than the first, at a plus 3.2 percent annualized rate and which ...Read More

Black Friday, Trump comments, Dallas Fed Survey

Total Black Friday sales down vs last year: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-holidayshopping-idUSKBN13L0ZH?il=0 The Trump thing looks to be going to go from bad to worse. I understand that sometimes it makes sense to vote in the village idiot. But then you do have to deal with him being the President. It’s like having an 8 ...Read More

Rail week, Trucking data, Bank lending

http://econintersectllc.cmail2.com/t/r-l-yhuudyld-jutdvkyuh-jy/ http://econintersect.com/pages/releases/release.php?post=201611250637&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily%20Global%20Economic%20Intersection%20Newsletter%20Feed&utm_content=Daily%20Global%20Economic%20Intersection%20Newsletter%20Feed+CID_2c6311bc7e868470eee44c0357c5f143&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=Trucking%20Data%20Mixed%20In%20October%202016 Not looking good: ...Read More

Trade, Composit PMI, Credit check

Higher trade deficit than expected, and last month revised higher. And just getting going: Highlights The advance international goods deficit widened to $62.0 billion in September from minus $56.5 billion in August. The increase in the deficit was bigger than the anticipated deficit of $59.7 billion. Exports were down 2.7 percent on ...Read More

Redbook retail sales, Mortgage purchase apps, PMI manufacturing, Consumer sentiment, New home sales

Notable only in that analysts are calling the latest 1% increase ‘strong growth’… First a big move down, now a rush to get in ahead of fed rate hikes. But still remains depressed by historical standards: Highlights Rising interest rates are causing some volatility in mortgage activity, with purchase applications for home ...Read More

Existing home sales, UK headline, Vehicle sales, India, Trump tweeting

These sales are reported based on actual closings, and they look to have flattened around the 5.5 million/yr rate. But that was before lenders hiked mortgage rates due to Trumpenomics frears, and mortgage purchase apps did drop a full 6% last week. And this number is not ‘population adjusted’: Talk about cheerleading- ...Read More

Chicago Fed, Japan, China, UK, US container counts, Euro area savings desires, Fed comment, Dividends comment

Still in the red: This is not a good sign for global demand. And Japan’s continuing trade surplus recently enhanced by the falling yen isn’t a positive for US GDP: Japan’s trade surplus grows 4.7-fold in October Nov 21 (Kyodo) — Japan’s trade surplus expanded 4.7-fold in October from a year earlier ...Read More

Yellen statements

Not good: Said Yellen: “The long-run deficit probably needs to be kept in mind.” http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2016/11/17/yellen-fed-track-dec-rate-hike/93991628/ http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-17/yellen-signals-fed-won-t-be-cowed-after-trump-s-election-victory “In addition, with the debt-to-GDP ratio at around 77 percent there is not a lot of fiscal space should a shock to the economy occur, an adverse shock that did require fiscal stimulus,” she said. Feb ...Read More

Housing starts, Consumer price index, Philly Fed survey

Nice move up after a large move down. Note that the average of the last two months is about where this series has been. And, again, it’s the permits that count, and they are about the same as last month. And not to forget mortgage applications to buy homes fell a full ...Read More

Bannon, DB on repatriation, The $

The big stupid continues uninterrupted from regime to regime: Documentary Of The Week: Stephen Bannon Explains America’s Problems By John Lounsburry Nov 15 (Econintersect) — Econintersect: This lecture was presented to the inaugural session of the Liberty Restoration Foundation in Orlando, FL October, 2011. Stephen Bannon, the CEO of Donald Trump’s successful ...Read More