Uncategorized Archive

Mortgage purchase apps, Durable goods orders

Still looking stone cold dead to me, with risk of going even lower. Purchase apps up only 3% from a dismal period last year: MBA Mortgage Applications Way below expectations and prior month revised down, causing GDP estimates to be further cut as well: Durable Goods Orders Highlights The manufacturing sector continues ...Read More

Start of PMC challenge in august

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car sales fall again

No surging consumer here either. Third month down… U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decrease to 16.2 million annual rate in February By Bill McBride Based on a WardsAuto estimate, light vehicle sales were at a 16.16 million SAAR in February. That is up 5.4% from February 2014, and down 2.4% from the 16.55 ...Read More


Warren, euro continue to go down vs usd. Do you think draghi goal is to reach eur/usd 1:1 ? Good question! No one thinks the ECB is buying dollars so if that’s the case the world is getting short euros directly and indirectly in very large size, as per the EU trade ...Read More

EU continues to negotiate with Greece

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Empire survey, MS on consumer spending, Housing index, e commerce

All these surveys are now declining: From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey The February 2015 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity continued to expand at a modest pace for New York manufacturers. The headline general business conditions index edged down two points to 7.8. The new orders index ...Read More

Consumer Sentiment

Whoops This isn’t supposed to happen with the lower gas prices: Consumer Sentiment Highlights Consumer sentiment remains very strong but it did move down after spiking in January, to 93.6 for the mid-month February reading vs January’s 98.1 which was the best reading in 11 years. The 93.6 reading is still very ...Read More

Dallas Fed

who would have thought?… Dallas Fed Mfg Survey Highlights Texas factory activity was flat in January. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, came in at 0.7, indicating output was essentially unchanged from December. Other survey measures also reflected sluggish activity during the month. The capacity utilization index fell ...Read More

credit check, oil capex

A zig down here often means a similar increase in bank lending as one substitutes for the other: ;) Steepest Oil-Rig Drop Shows Shale Losing Fight to OPEC ...Read More

My Tuesday New School presentation has been postponed until May

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