Uncategorized Archive

As the chart shows, year over year growth has gone to near 0 since the election, and the hurricane replacement effect has since dissipated: Highlights A big upward revision to core capital goods highlights today’s factory orders report which closes the book on what was a mixed October for manufacturing. The month’s ...Read More

First revision has the consumer a bit weaker than expected, which means the savings rate isn’t quite as weak as initially reported. The savings rate, however, is still unsustainable weak, meaning either consumer spending falls further or personal income growth reverses its deceleration. The other revisions include an increase in already too ...Read More

I don’t see any convincing evidence of a housing market revival, particularly with the growth of real estate lending remaining well below that of last year: Highlights Purchase applications for home mortgages rose a seasonally adjusted 5 percent in the November 17 week, though overall mortgage activity was only barely higher (by ...Read More

A dip and a recovery due to the hurricane (as per vehicle sales data), chugging along at modest rates of growth, and still down from high a couple of years back, not adjusted for inflation: The NY Fed reports household debt growth decelerated in q1, in line with the deceleration in bank ...Read More

Still no sign of a rebound: Home prices rising about 6% annually and loans now growing at under 4% annually looks in line with at best flat housing sales: Looks like the blip up as hurricane destroyed vehicles were replaced has run its course: This had looked like it peaked a couple ...Read More