Uncategorized Archive

Factory orders, Trade, Chain store sales

Highlights Factory orders, like much of the economy, fizzled in March, up only 0.2 percent and skewed higher for a third month in a row by aircraft. The split between the report’s two main components shows a 0.5 percent dip for nondurable goods — the new data in today’s report where weakness ...Read More

Small business borrowing, Tesla

U.S. small business borrowing stalls in March By Ann Saphir May 1 (Reuters) — Borrowing by small U.S. firms stalled in March, as business owners remained cautious about investing amid policy uncertainty, data released on Monday showed. The Thomson Reuters/PayNet Small Business Lending Index for March registered 134, down 1 percent from ...Read More

Vehicle sales, Share buybacks, Gasoline demand

Low and worse than expected, and inline with the deceleration in bank auto lending, as previously discussed, which doesn’t bode well for other sales measures tied to credit expansion: Highlights The earliest hint on whether consumer spending bounced back in April is positive. Unit vehicle sales rose from March’s very soft 16.6 ...Read More

Personal income and outlays, Construction spending, ISM and Markit manufacturing surveys

Last month revised lower and low and below expectations this month. Again, in line with decelerating credit data which means persistent weakness in GDP: Highlights Based on the consumer and based on inflation, FOMC members won’t be feeling much pressure to raise rates at least not any time soon. Consumer spending was ...Read More

GDP, Repatriation, Credit check

A very low initial print, with inventories down as expected as was consumption growth. And the investment data that did grow strongly is volatile and subject to reversal which would limit q2 growth as well. Expectations have come off some but remain trumped up, even as the hard data shows ongoing weakness. ...Read More

Mortgage purchase index, Saudi pricing

You can see from the chart that growth of mortgage applications for home purchases has been near 0 for quite a while, and remains historically depressed. The lines zigging downward are Saudi initiatives to lower prices, and as price setter they will necessarily prevail for as long as they have excess capacity: ...Read More

New home sales, PMI’s, Vehicle sales, Lumber tariffs

New home sales better than expected, but remember it’s about permits, as no home is built without one: Note how weak this is vs past cycles: Annualized rate of total sales keeps working its way lower from last year’s peak of about an 18.5 million pace, which also coincides with the deceleration ...Read More

Credit check

See any reason not to panic? ;) ...Read More

Mortgage purchase index, Philly Fed, Apartment tightness

The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 1 percent lower than the same week one year ago. Trumped up expectations falling off: ...Read More

Industrial production, Housing starts, Forecasts, Loan growth

Very modest growth continues from the lows following the crash in oil capex, and note that the numbers are not inflation adjusted: The painfully slow recovery following the crash continues, and note the numbers are not population adjusted: Trumped up expectations fading: Forecasters Lower Growth Outlook as Hopes for Quick Stimulus Fade ...Read More