Uncategorized Archive

ADP, Light vehicle sales, Wolf quote

This is ADP’s forecast of tomorrow’s employment number. We’ll see tomorrow how well accurate they were: A bit higher than expected but down for 2017 vs 2016 (negative growth): Highlights Unit vehicle sales proved solid in December, at a 17.9 million annualized rate vs 17.5 million in November. Outside of October and ...Read More

Redbook same store sales, Consumer confidence, Pending home sales

Same store sales doing a lot better than last year: Confidence remains high: Housing, however, still seems to be going nowhere: Highlights The pending home sales index has been flat and has not been in line with the strength of final sales of existing homes. This may limit the impact of today’s ...Read More

ADP, Mtg purchase apps, Capital spending report, Oil prices

Winding down from post hurricane levels, however keep in mind this is a forecast of Friday’s number, not report of actual private payrolls: Highlights A pre-hurricane total of 190,000 is ADP’s call for November private payroll growth which would follow a hurricane-related upswing of 252,000 in October and 15,000 downswing in September. ...Read More

Factory orders, Cash bonuses, Oil prices

As the chart shows, year over year growth has gone to near 0 since the election, and the hurricane replacement effect has since dissipated: Highlights A big upward revision to core capital goods highlights today’s factory orders report which closes the book on what was a mixed October for manufacturing. The month’s ...Read More

Construction spending, Rig count, Fed US leading index, Flynn news

Up a bit this month but as per the chart it’s bumping along at recession type levels: Highlights It’s not housing that drove construction spending up a very sharp 1.4 percent in October but non-residential activity which had been lagging in this report. Spending on private non-residential construction jumped 0.9 percent in ...Read More

GDP, Profits, Pending home sales, Mtg purchase apps

First revision has the consumer a bit weaker than expected, which means the savings rate isn’t quite as weak as initially reported. The savings rate, however, is still unsustainable weak, meaning either consumer spending falls further or personal income growth reverses its deceleration. The other revisions include an increase in already too ...Read More

New home sales, Bank lending, Philly Fed state coincident index

A better than expected, but somewhat peculiar details, and note the approximate average over the last 4 months. And maybe some tax related buying? Last month, new single-family homes sales soared 30.2 percent in the Northeast to their highest level since October 2007. Sales in the South increased 1.3 percent also to ...Read More

Mtg purchase apps, Durable goods orders

I don’t see any convincing evidence of a housing market revival, particularly with the growth of real estate lending remaining well below that of last year: Highlights Purchase applications for home mortgages rose a seasonally adjusted 5 percent in the November 17 week, though overall mortgage activity was only barely higher (by ...Read More

Existing home sales, Chicago Fed, Commercial real estate prices, Bank lending

Up a touch more than expected, but still down year over year: Up a bit for the month but the chart shows the weakness vs prior cycles: No improvement yet: ...Read More

Industrial production, Household debt, Business sales and inventories, Container counts, Animal trophies

A dip and a recovery due to the hurricane (as per vehicle sales data), chugging along at modest rates of growth, and still down from high a couple of years back, not adjusted for inflation: The NY Fed reports household debt growth decelerated in q1, in line with the deceleration in bank ...Read More