Uncategorized Archive

Chicago PMI, Jobless claims

Way below consensus and way bad: Chicago PMI The Chicago Business Barometer contracted at the fastest pace since July 2009, falling 5.8 points to 42.9 in December from 48.7 in November There was also ongoing weakness in New Orders, which contracted at a faster pace, to the lowest level since May 2009. ...Read More

Pending home sales, Consumer confidence

Another bad one: Pending Home Sales Index Highlights Pending home sales in November declined for the third time in four months as buyers continue to battle both rising home prices and limited homes available for sale. The pending home sales index was down 0.9 percent but up 2.7 percent from a year ...Read More

Dallas Fed, Japan restarting nukes

From bad to worse: Dallas Fed Mfg Survey Highlights Texas factory activity increased for a third month in a row in December. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose from 5.2 to 13.4, indicating stronger growth in output. Some other indexes of current manufacturing activity also reflected growth ...Read More

Unemployment claims, NYC apts, Japan spending, interview in Truth-Out

Claims readings could be distorted because a smaller share of those potentially eligible for benefits are applying. The share of recently unemployed workers seeking benefits has fallen this year to just above 50%, according to the National Employment Law Project, a group that advocates for the unemployed. The rate is down from ...Read More

Fed Atlanta GDP forecast

Down to +1.3% must be the rate hike at work… ;) ...Read More

Private sector credit growth, Philly Fed State index

It all ended when oil capex collapsed about a year ago, as previously discussed: Merry Christmas! ...Read More

Personal spending

Consumer spending revised down for last month. Seems best to wait for at least the first revision before commenting. ;) And still waiting for the consumer to spend his gas savings? ;) United States : Personal Income and Outlays Highlights Because of a glitch at the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the personal ...Read More

Rail traffic, China Beige Book, Bank loans

Rail Week Ending 12 December 2015: Bad Data Continues And Marginally Worse Than Last Week Week 49 of 2015 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) declined according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Intermodal traffic returned to contraction year-over-year, which accounts for approximately ...Read More

Architecture Billings Index, Fed comments

Another setback for economic forecasters as this index falls below 50, indicating contraction: Seems to me the Fed has gotten lost in its own confused rhetoric, but that’s another story. Point here is fed funds are a quarter point higher which will will make no discernible difference to macroeconomic outcomes, including the ...Read More

Draghi quote, Euro purchasing power parity, Small business index

“Often wrong but never in doubt”? ;) Quote from Mario Draghi: But there is no doubt that if we had to intensify the use of our instruments to ensure that we achieve our price stability mandate, we would. There cannot be any limit to how far we are willing to deploy our ...Read More