Uncategorized Archive

Proverb, Expected Household Spending, my RT interview

Paradox of thrift goes way back! It’s always an unspent income story… ;) There is that scattereth, and yet increaseth; and there is that withholdeth more than is meet, but it tendeth to poverty. The liberal soul shall be made fat: and he that watereth shall be watered also himself. —Proverbs 11:24–25 ...Read More

NFIB index, Redbook, German ZEW

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Highlights In a confirmation of strong levels of job openings in the JOLTS report, small businesses are reporting the most difficulty in finding qualified workers since 2007, pointing to the risk ahead of wage pressures. Boosted by employment, the small business optimism index inched 2 tenths higher ...Read More

Wholesale Trade, UK Construction, Benefit Checks

Sales to inventory ratios still looking way high to me, as happens entering a recession: Wholesale Trade Highlights Wholesale inventories look to be pulling down on third-quarter GDP, up only 0.1 percent in August following a downwardly revised 0.3 percent decline in July. But relative to sales, which fell 1.0 percent in ...Read More

Saudi Oil Production, US Trade, Gallup Index, Redbook Retail Sales, German Manufacturers’ Orders

Their price cuts reported yesterday indicate they’d like to pump more: Gap widening as previously suspected, even with lower oil prices: International Trade Highlights A surge in imports of new iPhones helped feed what was an unusually wide trade gap in August of $48.3 billion, well up from July’s revised $41.8 billion. ...Read More

NY ISM index

Even the city is turning south: ...Read More

Papal visit indicator

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Empire State, Industrial Production, Business Inventories, Retail Sales

Ugly: Empire State Mfg Survey Highlights The shocking weakness in August was no fluke as the Empire State index came in far below expectations for September, at minus 14.67. Next only to August’s minus 14.92, September’s reading is the weakest of the recovery, since April 2009. And, unfortunately, judging by new orders, ...Read More

Truck Tonnage, New Car Sales Preview

ATA Trucking Index decreased 0.5% in June by Bill McBride on 7/27/2015 01:55:00 PM Here is an indicator that I follow on trucking, from the ATA: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Fell 0.5% in June American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index decreased 0.5% in June, following a revised gain ...Read More

Claims, Phili Fed, Housing index

Down a touch but the 4 week moving average still moving higher: Highlights Auto retooling is clouding initial jobless claims data which fell 15,000 in the July 11 week to 281,000. But the 4-week average, inflated by a 14,000 spike in the prior week, rose 3,250 to a 282,500 level that’s more ...Read More

EU losing interest in Greece

To that point: ...Read More