Uncategorized Archive

My Tuesday New School presentation has been postponed until May

...Read More

Jobs, Philly Fed

This tick up might mean nothing, but could also be the start of a move up due to the fall off in oil capital expenditures: Jobless Claims Highlights Jobless claims jumped sharply in the January 10 week, up 19,000 to a 316,000 level that’s the highest since September. The 4-week average is ...Read More

Brazil inflation

Maybe somehow the higher interest rates set by the CB support the higher rates of inflation? ;) Brazil’s Inflation Rises Even Amid Low Growth (WSJ) Brazil’s official IPCA consumer-price index rose 6.41% in 2014. The IPCA rose 5.91% in 2013. Annual inflation was driven up by an 8% increase in food prices and a ...Read More

PMI Manufacturing Index, ISM manufacturing, Construction spending

PMI Manufacturing Index Highlights Slowing growth is the signal from Markit’s US manufacturing sample where the final composite score came in at 53.9, down from November’s 54.8. The flash reading for December was 53.7. New business gains and output both slowed in the month which respondents tied to uncertainty over the global ...Read More

demand for saudi oil remains high

As previously discussed, the Saudis set price, currently via spreads, etc. and let the refiners buy all they want at those posted prices. And as the chart shows, demand for Saudi oil has remained relatively high and relatively stable. That is, there has been no material drop in demand. ...Read More

ecri still negative

As previously discussed, this is dismissed because of a prior false recession alarm. At that time the deficit was, in my opinion, high enough to support positive growth. Today’s a different story. The economy always requires deficit spending from some agent to offset the tendency to not spend income (demand leakages). Looks ...Read More

state revenues

They give some indication of the macro economy ...Read More

Bloomberg News: As 2015 Starts, the American Consumer Is Back

As 2015 Starts, the American Consumer Is Back Hardly! ...Read More

existing home sales, Chicago Fed

Bad. And prices down again. As previously discussed, with mtg purchase apps down and cash buyers down it’s hard to see how sales can rise… Existing Home Sales Highlights Existing home sales had been showing some life but not in November, sinking a very steep 6.1 percent to a 4.93 million annual ...Read More

ECRI continues to decline forecasting recession

This index signaled a recession in 2012 which didn’t happen so it’s been discredited. This time the deficit is a lot lower telling me it’s a lot more likely to happen. ...Read More