Category Archives: Uncategorized

My Tuesday New School presentation has been postponed until May

Posted in Uncategorized |

Jobs, Philly Fed

This tick up might mean nothing, but could also be the start of a move up due to the fall off in oil capital expenditures: Jobless Claims Highlights Jobless claims jumped sharply in the January 10 week, up 19,000 to … Continue reading

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Brazil inflation

Maybe somehow the higher interest rates set by the CB support the higher rates of inflation? ;) Brazil’s Inflation Rises Even Amid Low Growth (WSJ) Brazil’s official IPCA consumer-price index rose 6.41% in 2014. The IPCA rose 5.91% in 2013. Annual inflation … Continue reading

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PMI Manufacturing Index, ISM manufacturing, Construction spending

PMI Manufacturing Index Highlights Slowing growth is the signal from Markit’s US manufacturing sample where the final composite score came in at 53.9, down from November’s 54.8. The flash reading for December was 53.7. New business gains and output both … Continue reading

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demand for saudi oil remains high

As previously discussed, the Saudis set price, currently via spreads, etc. and let the refiners buy all they want at those posted prices. And as the chart shows, demand for Saudi oil has remained relatively high and relatively stable. That … Continue reading

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ecri still negative

As previously discussed, this is dismissed because of a prior false recession alarm. At that time the deficit was, in my opinion, high enough to support positive growth. Today’s a different story. The economy always requires deficit spending from some … Continue reading

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state revenues

They give some indication of the macro economy

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Bloomberg News: As 2015 Starts, the American Consumer Is Back

As 2015 Starts, the American Consumer Is Back Hardly!

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existing home sales, Chicago Fed

Bad. And prices down again. As previously discussed, with mtg purchase apps down and cash buyers down it’s hard to see how sales can rise… Existing Home Sales Highlights Existing home sales had been showing some life but not in … Continue reading

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ECRI continues to decline forecasting recession

This index signaled a recession in 2012 which didn’t happen so it’s been discredited. This time the deficit is a lot lower telling me it’s a lot more likely to happen.

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