Economic Releases Archive

GDP, Profits, Pending home sales, Mtg purchase apps

First revision has the consumer a bit weaker than expected, which means the savings rate isn’t quite as weak as initially reported. The savings rate, however, is still unsustainable weak, meaning either consumer spending falls further or personal income growth reverses its deceleration. The other revisions include an increase in already too ...Read More

Trade, New home sales chart, Redbook retail sales, Consumer confidence

As previously discussed, the food export spike was a one time event: Highlights With housing and manufacturing showing strength the outlook for fourth-quarter GDP was building, until that is this morning’s advance trade and inventory data. October’s goods deficit was much higher-than-expected, at $68.3 billion for a very sizable $4.2 billion increase ...Read More

Personal income and spending, ISM manufacturing, construction spending

Spending still not good, and GDP *is* spending. Personal income growth remains low, but is higher than spending. I suspect this gets reconciled with downward revisions to income over time, perhaps due to downward revisions to employment. With GDP growth near flat employment growth implies more employees are being hired to produce ...Read More

Dallas Fed, Chicago PMI, Japan Industrial Production, Italy Retail Sales, Comments on GDI and GDP

Shockingly negative: Dallas Fed Mfg Survey Not so good: Chicago PMI Highlights The headline for August looks solid, at 54.4 for the Chicago PMI, but the details look weak. New orders and production both slowed and order backlogs fell into deeper contraction. Employment contracted for a fourth straight month while prices paid ...Read More

Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, Import Export Prices, Business Inventories, Japan Machine Orders, Freight Transportation, Gas Prices

This is being touted as a strong report, but, again, looks to me like it’s dropped since year end and at best is moving sideways from there, and not to forget that a large share of auto sales are imports. But I do agree the Fed is heck bent on raising rates ...Read More

MTG Purchase Apps, EU Industrial Production, China Industrial Production, JOLTS

Yes, purchase apps are up 20% vs last year, but you can see from the chart the number of applications has leveled off and declined a bit more recently this year, and remains at depressed levels: The slump in industrial production is global: European Union : Industrial Production Highlights Industrial production declined ...Read More

China, Germany, Productivity, NFIB Index, Redbook, Wholesale Trade

A few thoughts: China’s US Tsy holding had been falling perhaps because they were selling $ to buy Yuan to keep it within in the prior band. Pretty much all exporting nation’s currencies have already weakened vs the $, including the Yen and Euro, so this is a bit of a ‘catch ...Read More

Fed Labor Indicator, NY Fed Consumer Expectations, Lumber Prices, China Trade

This Fed indicator, whatever it means, just went down some: Labor Market Conditions Index Highlights If the Fed relied exclusively on its labor market conditions index, no one would be in much hurry for the rate hike. The index for July came in slightly below expectations at 1.1 vs a revised 1.4 ...Read More

Jobs, Atlanta Fed, Rail Traffic

The Fed is looking for ‘some improvement’ in the jobs market. But looks like deterioration to me? The number of jobs fell for the second straight month, the year over year growth rate continued to fall, the unemployment rate and the participation rate were unchanged, earnings growth remains very low. All that ...Read More

Mortgage Purchase Apps, EU Retail Sales, Payroll Tax, ADP, Trade, Equity Comment

While still historically very low, purchase apps are now way up over last year’s particularly depressed levels. Some are replacing all cash buyers, but the increase is also in line with increased existing home sales. While new home sales were soft, turnover of existing homes has been increasing, and while not directly ...Read More