China Archive

PMI’s, Housing sales data, Yellon on oil

A few more PMI’s showing weakness: Japan : PMI Manufacturing Index Flash Highlights Manufacturing weakened for a third consecutive month. The flash April manufacturing PMI reading was 49.7, down from 50.3 in March. A reading below 50 indicates contraction. The output index also slipped below 50 to a reading of 49.7, down ...Read More

labor market index, consumer credit, China trade, BIS on oil and debt

This is the Fed’s new indicator: Labor Market Conditions Index Definition The U.S. labor market is large and multifaceted. Often-cited indicators such as the unemployment rate or payroll employment, measure a particular dimension of labor market activity. It is not uncommon for different indicators to send conflicting signals about labor market conditions. ...Read More

Housing starts, Japan discussion, China, US pmi, store sales

Looks bad to me. Remember, for GDP to grow at last year’s rate, all the pieces on average have to contribute that much. And, as previously discussed, hard to see how starts and sales can grow with cash buyers and mtg purchase apps declining year over year. The charts look like we ...Read More

PBOC Yuan comments

Reads more and more like they are paving the way for it to go down to ‘rejoin’ the rest of the EM’s and Japan etc? The reason they give for it not going down is their fx reserves which could be used as a buffer. That implies it goes down otherwise? “There ...Read More

Yuan weakness

May be a fundamental shift in trade flows? They don’t want to spend fx to defend? Looking to let it go to get back to where it was vs yen at 80/$ as other EM’s seem to be doing? China Weakens Yuan by Largest Degree Since 2012 By Anjani Trivedi March 10 ...Read More

China hands death sentence to solar cell makers

With public banking, for better or for worse, lending is politicized: China hands ‘death sentence’ to 75% of solar cell makers By Toru Sugawara December 24 (Nikkei) — The Chinese government is pushing for a drastic shakeout of the country’s overcrowded solar cell industry, supporting only a quarter of players and practically ...Read More

China going western

Warren, The following article seems to confirm your views expressed here: Meet Liu He, Xi Jinping’s Choice to Fix a Faltering Chinese Economy China prepares to liberalise finance as hedge funds and estate agents salivate “bit by bit, China’s economy – if not its political structure – is being reshaped along the ...Read More

China Beige Book Shows Slowdown, Opposite Official Data

So it’s a mixed message? Western educated kids turning China into Japan as well? China Beige Book Shows Slowdown, Opposite Official Data September 25 (Bloomberg) — China’s economy slowed this quarter as growth in manufacturing and transportation weakened in contrast with official signs of an expansion pickup, a private survey showed. Increases ...Read More

China’s Treasury Holdings Fall 21 Bln Amid Fed Talk on Taper Timing

I’d guess most of that was runoff of short term bills so wouldn’t alter the longer term rates but it also might be the case that China told the fed they wouldn’t buy any more secs unless they ceased QE. The Fed doesn’t realize that we don’t need China or anyone else ...Read More

China’s broadest measure of new credit fell to a 21-month low

This is per deliberate policy and will continue to constrain output and employment China’s Credit Expansion Slows as Li Curbs Shadow Banking August 8 (Bloomberg) — China’s broadest measure of new credit fell to a 21-month low as Premier Li Keqiang extended a campaign to curb a record expansion of lending that’s ...Read More