China Archive

Cartoon, US International Trade, India, Redbook Retail Sales, China Comments, Consumer Confidence

As previously discussed, trade deficit increasing: United States : International trade in goods Definition The Census Bureau is now publishing an advance report on U.S. international trade in goods. The BEA will incorporate these data into its estimates of exports and imports for the advance GDP estimates. This is expected to reduce ...Read More

Redbook Retail Sales, Richmond Fed, Architectural Index, Mtg Purchase Index, Chemical Activity Barometer, China, Unemployment Duration Chart

No sign of improvement: Bad: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Highlights Early indications on the September factory sector are negative and now include a minus 5 headline from the Richmond Fed. New orders, unfortunately, are even more deeply in the negative column at minus 12 which points to even weaker activity in the ...Read More

China, Saudi Output, Credit Check

This monetarist stuff doesn’t work: China removes regulation on loan-to-deposit ratio Aug 28 (Xinhua) — China’s top legislature on Saturday adopted an amendment to the Law on Commercial Banks, removing a 75-percent loan-to-deposit ratio stipulation. China has kept the 75-percent ratio since the law was enacted and put into effect in 1995. ...Read More

Personal Income and Outlays, Consumer Sentiment, Japan Household Spending, China Profits

Everything pretty much as expected and the same, helped by vehicle sales which are both volatile and leveling off: United States : Personal Income and Outlays Highlights There’s no hurry for a rate hike based on the July personal income and outlays report where inflation readings are very quiet. Core PCE prices ...Read More

Redbook retail sales, Inflation adjustment, China, House prices, Consumer confidence

Still depressed Lower than the Fed thought: U.S. inflation probably lower than reported, Fed study says Aug 24 (Reuters) — U.S. inflation in the first half of the year was probably “markedly lower” than reported according to the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank. Researchers at the regional Fed bank had earlier found ...Read More

quick macro update

It all started when the FICA tax cuts and a few of the Bush tax reductions were allowed to expire at the end of 2012, followed by the sequesters a few months later 2013. That resulted in 2013 GDP growth of a bit less than 2% or so that might have been ...Read More

credit check, rail traffic, ecri index, china pmi

Still no sign of acceleration, as some deceleration continues: Rail Week Ending 15 August 2015: Continued Deterioration Of Year-over-Year Rolling Averages (Econintersect) — Week 32 of 2015 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) contracted according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Intermodal traffic ...Read More

MTG Purchase Apps, EU Industrial Production, China Industrial Production, JOLTS

Yes, purchase apps are up 20% vs last year, but you can see from the chart the number of applications has leveled off and declined a bit more recently this year, and remains at depressed levels: The slump in industrial production is global: European Union : Industrial Production Highlights Industrial production declined ...Read More

China, Germany, Productivity, NFIB Index, Redbook, Wholesale Trade

A few thoughts: China’s US Tsy holding had been falling perhaps because they were selling $ to buy Yuan to keep it within in the prior band. Pretty much all exporting nation’s currencies have already weakened vs the $, including the Yen and Euro, so this is a bit of a ‘catch ...Read More

Fed Labor Indicator, NY Fed Consumer Expectations, Lumber Prices, China Trade

This Fed indicator, whatever it means, just went down some: Labor Market Conditions Index Highlights If the Fed relied exclusively on its labor market conditions index, no one would be in much hurry for the rate hike. The index for July came in slightly below expectations at 1.1 vs a revised 1.4 ...Read More