China Archive

GDP, Trade, Personal income and outlays, Consumer sentiment, China deficit spending, 7DIF, US surveys, German business morale

Revised up but for the worst reasons possible- unsold inventories were higher. Also, consumption expenditures were a bit lower, and note the deceleration of GDP growth on the chart. And in all likelihood Q1 GDP is now being reduced by inventory liquidation substituting for production: GDP Highlights An upward revision to inventory ...Read More

NY Mfg survey, Home builder’s index, oil losses, Japan, China trade, euro trade

A lot worse than expected and still deep in contraction: Empire State Mfg Survey Highlights For the seventh straight month, the Empire State report is signaling significant contraction for the manufacturing sector. The general business conditions index for February came in below low-end expectations, at minus 16.64 vs even deeper contraction of ...Read More

China and Russia buying gold

Seems it’s always a central bank story. Goes up when they buy, down when they sell. Furthermore gold buying is supported by how it’s accounted for. That is, it doesn’t count as deficit spending or part of the pubic debt, even though the ‘taxpayer’ has to pay interest on the funds spent, ...Read More

Mtg purchase apps, China trade

Lots of up and down right now. The chart indicates purchase apps may be up a bit but still depressed historically. MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights The new year is seeing a surge in mortgage activity reflecting a strong jobs market and low rates, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly report. Purchase ...Read More

Jobs, Wholesale trade, China, Rail traffic

Anyone notice that the annual growth rate of employment continues the deterioration that began with the collapse in oil capex? Or that, once again, it looks like most all the new jobs were taken by people previously considered out of the labor force? And the anemic wage growth also contributes to the ...Read More

Bank of China, Port traffic, Redbook retail sales, Car sales early indication

This does nothing apart from supporting their policy rate: Port Traffic Grew at Slowest Rate Since Recession in 2015 Container traffic rose only 0.8% last year at the 30 busiest ports worldwide, the smallest increase since 2009, according to an estimate by Alphaliner By Robbie Whelan Jan 4 (WSJ) — Container traffic ...Read More

PMI Manufacturing, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, Canada PMI, China Manufacturing PMI

Bad: PMI Manufacturing Index Highlights The manufacturing PMI has been consistently running warmer than other manufacturing surveys which helps put into context the disappointment of December’s slowing to 51.2, down from 52.8 in November. The final reading for December is 1 tenth lower than the mid-month flash. Near stagnation in new orders ...Read More

Empire State Manufacturing, China Power Usage, Stock Buy Backs

The recession continues: Empire State Mfg Survey Highlights Negatives are beginning to run in Empire State with the index at minus 10.74 in November, right in line with the prior four readings and well below the Econoday consensus for minus 5.00. Several components are showing extended weakness including unfilled orders, at minus ...Read More

Mtg Purchase Apps, Saudi Pricing History, China

So much for housing leading the way up- looks to have gone from flat to down: MBA Mortgage Applications For the most part Saudis have been lowering premiums and increasing discounts which causes prices to fall to get their sales up to their pumping capacity: Not without a bit of pain, which ...Read More

Job Cuts, Yellen Comment, Saudi Pricing, German Factory Orders, Maersk Job Cuts, China Trade Show

Down a bit but still trending higher since the oil price collapse: Seems she still doesn’t realize negative rates are just another tax: FED’S YELLEN: IF ECONOMY SIGNIFICANTLY DETERIORATED, NEGATIVE RATES AND OTHER TOOLS WOULD BE ON THE TABLE This implies the rest of Saudi pricing remains the same from November, when ...Read More