China Archive

IMF re France, truck tonnage, China PMI, Japan PMI

More of same pro cyclical pressure: France slammed by IMF for record-high spending By Holly Ellyatt May 20 (CNBC) — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned France that it must reduce government spending and debt levels, as well as tackling its sticky unemployment rate. The IMF said in its latest economic ...Read More

China, Bunds, and Fed’s labor market index

As if rate cuts will help: China cuts interest rates for third time since Nov as economy sputters May 10 (Reuters) — China’s central bank cut its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to 5.1 percent on Sunday, its third reduction since November, as economic growth cools to levels not seen ...Read More

china pmi, ADP, productivity

Still slipping in Q2 China : PMI Composite Highlights HSBC China Composite PMI, which covers both manufacturing and services, indicated an expansion of Chinese business activity in April but at a weaker pace. Activity growth slowed to a three month low with a reading of 51.3, down from 51.8 in March. The ...Read More

Atlanta Fed, Japan and China, rail car traffic, Saudi output

Currently a .9 forecast for Q2, well below other estimates again: More global deceleration: Japan : Household Spending Highlights Household spending declined for a twelfth straight month in March. On the year, spending was down 10.6 percent after sliding 2.9 percent in January. Consumption has been weak since last April when Japan ...Read More

PMI’s, Housing sales data, Yellon on oil

A few more PMI’s showing weakness: Japan : PMI Manufacturing Index Flash Highlights Manufacturing weakened for a third consecutive month. The flash April manufacturing PMI reading was 49.7, down from 50.3 in March. A reading below 50 indicates contraction. The output index also slipped below 50 to a reading of 49.7, down ...Read More

labor market index, consumer credit, China trade, BIS on oil and debt

This is the Fed’s new indicator: Labor Market Conditions Index Definition The U.S. labor market is large and multifaceted. Often-cited indicators such as the unemployment rate or payroll employment, measure a particular dimension of labor market activity. It is not uncommon for different indicators to send conflicting signals about labor market conditions. ...Read More

Housing starts, Japan discussion, China, US pmi, store sales

Looks bad to me. Remember, for GDP to grow at last year’s rate, all the pieces on average have to contribute that much. And, as previously discussed, hard to see how starts and sales can grow with cash buyers and mtg purchase apps declining year over year. The charts look like we ...Read More

PBOC Yuan comments

Reads more and more like they are paving the way for it to go down to ‘rejoin’ the rest of the EM’s and Japan etc? The reason they give for it not going down is their fx reserves which could be used as a buffer. That implies it goes down otherwise? “There ...Read More

Yuan weakness

May be a fundamental shift in trade flows? They don’t want to spend fx to defend? Looking to let it go to get back to where it was vs yen at 80/$ as other EM’s seem to be doing? China Weakens Yuan by Largest Degree Since 2012 By Anjani Trivedi March 10 ...Read More

China hands death sentence to solar cell makers

With public banking, for better or for worse, lending is politicized: China hands ‘death sentence’ to 75% of solar cell makers By Toru Sugawara December 24 (Nikkei) — The Chinese government is pushing for a drastic shakeout of the country’s overcrowded solar cell industry, supporting only a quarter of players and practically ...Read More