Author Archive

Redbook same store sales, Consumer confidence, Pending home sales

Same store sales doing a lot better than last year: Confidence remains high: Housing, however, still seems to be going nowhere: Highlights The pending home sales index has been flat and has not been in line with the strength of final sales of existing homes. This may limit the impact of today’s ...Read More

Durable goods orders, Personal income and spending, Bank lending, New home sales, Consumer sentiment

As previously discussed, durable goods and manufacturing, after dipping in 2015 with collapse of oil capex, resumed modest growth from the lower levels which continues: Highlights A jump in aircraft skewed durable goods orders 1.3 percent higher in November which however is well below Econoday’s consensus for 2.0 percent and no better ...Read More

Current account, Housing starts

Another hurricane influenced number. Without the receipts from foreign insurance companies looks like it would have been about the same as last month: Highlights Hurricane receipts from foreign insurance companies for losses resulting from hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria shaved $24.9 billion from the nation’s current account deficit to a much lower-than-expected ...Read More

Industrial production, Empire state manufacturing, Retail sales, PMI, Port traffic

Boring: Highlights A rise for mining offsets a dip for utilities making a modest 0.2 percent gain for manufacturing the story for November’s industrial economy. This report’s manufacturing component has been the only uneven indicator on the factory sector all year which limits the surprise of November’s results. Forecasters weren’t calling for ...Read More

Small business optimism survey, Private sector credit

Expectations all the more trumped up with the new tax bill, but the details show actual conditions aren’t doing so well: Highlights Optimism among small business owners is surging, according to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), whose Small Business Optimism Index rose 3.7 points in November to 107.5, the highest ...Read More

Credit check

Something happened about the time of the Presidential election that caused a sudden deceleration of bank lending, which had already been decelerating since the collapse of oil capex. And still no signs of a recovery here, as consumers seem to be instead dipping into savings to sustain consumption as personal income growth ...Read More

Employment, Consumer sentiment, Inventories

Higher than expected but last month revised lower, so seems best to wait a month (and sometimes more) for the revisions before passing judgement. And the wage data, if anything, is that of a very low demand economy with lots of excess capacity: Highlights Overheating may not be the description of the ...Read More


Disruptive headlines: Trump announces U.S. will recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital Trump: Government shutdown ‘could happen’ Saturday Mania in progress: ...Read More

ADP, Mtg purchase apps, Capital spending report, Oil prices

Winding down from post hurricane levels, however keep in mind this is a forecast of Friday’s number, not report of actual private payrolls: Highlights A pre-hurricane total of 190,000 is ADP’s call for November private payroll growth which would follow a hurricane-related upswing of 252,000 in October and 15,000 downswing in September. ...Read More

Trade, Redbook retail sales, PMI services, ISM services

As previously discussed, the US bill for oil imports went up: Highlights Fourth-quarter net exports get off to a weak start as October’s trade deficit, at $48.7 billion, comes in much deeper than expected and well beyond September’s revised $44.9 billion. Exports, at $195.9 billion in the month, failed to improve in ...Read More