Author Archive
Dallas Fed survey, California home sales, Tariff exemptions
Economic Releases
Dec 31, 2018
Not good: California Home Sales Slowest For An October In Seven Years (Econintersect) California home sales fell year over year for the third consecutive month, hitting a seven-year low for an October, as affordability constraints and a more cautious stance by many would-be buyers continued to weigh on the market. Interesting. Wonder
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Pending home sales, Richmond Fed, Holiday retail sales
Economic Releases
Dec 28, 2018
Bad: Highlights Existing home sales have been leveling but the signal from pending home sales points to a new downturn. The pending home sales index for November fell 0.7 percent to 101.4 which is under Econoday’s consensus range and compared to expectations for a 1.5 percent gain. Year-on-year this index is down
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Rail traffic, apartment vacancy rate, durable goods orders, personal income and consumption, KC manufacturing
Economic Releases
Dec 21, 2018
Rail Week Ending 15 December 2018: Economically Intuitive Sectors Continue In Contraction Written by Steven Hansen Week 50 of 2018 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) improved according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. The economically intuitive sectors were in contraction this week.
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Leveraged loans, Current account and repatriation, Cass freight index
Emerging Markets
Dec 20, 2018
So for every agent that spent less than its income, another must have spent more than its income, or the output would not have been sold. It’s an ex poste identity for any currency. That means that as bank lending decelerated, assuming ‘savings desires’ are generally constant, either some other means of
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Housing starts, Existing home sales, Fedex
Economic Releases
Dec 19, 2018
Up some but the chart not looking so good: Highlights Mostly goods news finally greets the housing sector as both starts and permits are showing an uplift in November results that top Econoday’s consensus range. Starts jumped to a 1.256 million annualized rate for a 4-month high with permits at a 1.328
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Containers, Housing index and sales
Economic Releases
Dec 17, 2018
Analyst Opinion of Container Movements Simply looking at this month versus last month – this was a terrible month. The three month rolling averages significantly declined. This is the first dataset I have seen which could be a self-inflicted wound from the trade wars. The three month rolling average for exports is
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US factory growth, China car sales, Euro Area, Germany, Fisher comment, State revenues, Las Vegas housing
Economic Releases
Dec 14, 2018
The tariff thing keeps taking its toll: China Nov car sales fall 14%, biggest drop since 2012 (Reuters) China’s automobile sales fell 13.9 percent in November from a year earlier. The drop in sales to 2.55 million vehicles, a fifth straight decline in monthly numbers. The last time sales fell by more
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China, Corporate debt and profits, Bank credit, Japan, Leveraged loans
Economic Releases
Dec 10, 2018
China exports falling with tariffs: China’s November export, import growth shrinks, showing weak demand US exports turning south as well? The deceleration that started with the collapse of oil capex in Dec 2014 took a brief zig up late in 2017, and subsequently continued lower: Likewise the ability to generate gross profits
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Fed comments, Trump watching stocks
Economic Releases
Dec 07, 2018
A falling stock market will get the Fed’s attention and trigger real economic weakness and aggressive rate cuts. But those rate cuts remove interest income from the macro economy, which doesn’t recover until after net deficit spending (public or private) gets high enough to support aggregate demand growth. And the last recession
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Employment, NYSE margin debt
Economic Releases
Dec 07, 2018
Employment growth had been decelerating with the collapse in oil capex in Dec. 2014, but had started to accelerate with the initial impact of the year-end tax cuts, which now look to be fading: Highlights Sustainable non-inflationary strength is the indication from the November employment report as payroll growth proved favorable and
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