Author Archive

Consumer credit, jobless claims, commercial real estate index

Softening: Down more than expected. This is for the week ending Sep 4, as federal benefits expired. Lots of federal spending expiring: Commercial real estate index dipping: ...Read More

New Hires, Economic Optimism index, German sentiment

New hires dropped even as job openings rose: Fading fast: ...Read More

Rails, bank loans, unemployment rate

Looking weak: Nothing good happening here: Tiny glimmer of hope here? Lots more unemployment than the headline number: ...Read More

Unemployment claims, trade, vehicle sales

Still way above the 200,000 pre covid levels. Makes me wonder why so many people are still losing jobs: Weaker imports is likely a sign of a weaker US consumer: And oil isn’t much of a factor anymore: This is seriously low as supply issues continue: Dried-Up Inventory Sinks U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales ...Read More

China service sector, Chicago pmi, consumer sentiment

Big slump here: Weakness here as well: Collapse in front of expiring federal unemployment benefits: ...Read More

Unemployment claims, personal income, savings and consumption

This has now fallen back to pre covid levels and is likely to go lower after federal unemployment benefits expire: Expiring benefits after next week could leave a serious shortfall: Federal spending and transfer payments have managed to restore consumption to close to pre covid levels: ...Read More

Pending home sales, Dallas Fed manufacturing index

Last week of federal unemployment benefits: Dallas surprises on the downside, but inline with other indicators: ...Read More

New home sales, Richmond Fed, vehicle sales

Fading back to trend: Falling back: ...Read More

Manufacturing, services, existing home sales

And federal unemployment benefits expire in 2 weeks: Back to about where it was heading pre covid, way below last cycle and not where it was expected to be with record low mortgage rates: ...Read More

Bank loans, rig count, iron ore

Still weak: Coming back slowly, but now oil prices are lower: Lots of spiky commodities like iron ore: ...Read More