Author Archive

Mtg apps, Redbook retail sales, Industrial production, Housing market index, CPI, Euro zone and US sectoral balances

Back down again, in spite of Trumped up expectations, and going nowhere: Highlights Purchase applications for home mortgages fell a seasonally adjusted 5.0 percent in the January 13 week, while applications for refinancing rose 7 percent. Unadjusted, the purchase index increased 25 percent compared to the previous week, however, taking the year-on-year ...Read More

Euro zone trade, Tax receipts, Trump comments

Strong euro stuff! Eurozone Trade Surplus Widens Ahead Of Expectations The Eurozone trade surplus rose to €25.9 billion in November 2016 from €22.9 billion in the same month of the previous year, above market consensus of €22 billion. Exports increased 6 percent while imports went up at a slower 5 percent. Considering ...Read More

Credit check

Still not looking so good: ...Read More

Retail sales, Business inventories, Consumer sentiment, China exports, German GDP

Less than expected and held up by vehicle sales which were about flat for the year and are unlikely to be any better than that in 2017, and therefore not contributing anything to growth: Highlights Outside of cars, consumers weren’t in much of a spending mood this holiday season. Retail sales did ...Read More

US budget gap, Jobless claims, Retail employment, Rail cars

Seems revenues continue to fall indicating the two years of deceleration of growth may have already gone below 0, and with unemployment claims a lot harder to get that source of transfer payments seems to have been reduced, reducing what otherwise would have been that much counter cyclical deficit spending: US Budget ...Read More

Discount rate, Fed payment to Treasury, German trade balance, Trump communications

Note that there was little or no demand from member banks to borrow from the regional reserve banks, yet they decided the rate needed to be higher… ;) All but one bank requested to raise an interest rate the U.S. central bank places on its loans to commercial banks for the month ...Read More

Small business index, Redbook retail sales, Jolts, Consumer credit, Retail sales forecast

Still Trumped up expectations: Highlights The small business optimism index soared 7.4 points in December to 105.8, the highest reading since December 2004. The outsized increase far exceeds expectations and follows a robust 3.5-point rise in November. NFIB said business owners who expect better economic conditions accounted for about half of the ...Read More

Labor market conditions index

From the Fed’s research: Highlights The economy may be at full employment but it’s not helping the labor market conditions index which remains flat. For the first negative score since May, December’s index comes in at minus 0.3. Based on this report, there may be more slack than suspected and less risk ...Read More

Credit check

This is getting serious… This came out about a month ago, and it’s only through the first half of last year, but it gives you an idea of the growth rate of private sector credit that’s been associated with economic expansions in the past, and how the lack of private sector credit ...Read More

Payrolls, Factory orders, Foreign trade, Retailers, Boston rents

The year over year chart continues its 2 year deceleration unabated. No telling where it ends but the end will coincide with increased deficit spending, private or public: Highlights Job growth may be the new economic policy but wage inflation may be the risk. Nonfarm payrolls rose a lower-than-expected 156,000 in December ...Read More