Author Archive
Durable goods orders, Chicago Fed, Dallas Fed, commercial real estate
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Jun 26, 2017
Worse than expected and prior month revised lower, but otherwise muddling through at modest rates of annual growth: Highlights Aircraft had been the strength but is now the weakness for durable goods which, pulled down by a second straight downswing for commercial aircraft, fell 1.1 percent in May. When excluding transportation, a
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Credit Check
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Jun 25, 2017
The credit collapse continues:
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PMI’s, New Home Sales, State Coincident Index, Corporate Profits
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Jun 23, 2017
Trumped up expectations continue to revert: Highlights The economy is solid, at least the service sector, but on the whole is losing momentum, based on Markit’s flash data for June. The composite PMI slowed to 53.0 vs Econoday’s consensus for 53.8 with services also at 53.0 and manufacturing at 52.1, both short
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Existing home sales, oil, credit
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Jun 21, 2017
Going nowhere, and with mortgage lending decelerating not much hope this will add to growth vs last year: Highlights Housing has been sliding which adds importance to May’s very solid 1.1 percent rebound in existing home sales to a higher-than-expected 5.620 million annualized rate. Today’s report is mostly solid throughout and includes
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Credit check
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Jun 17, 2017
More problematic by the week. Note the absolute level of c and I loans has been flat to negative since October: Annual rate of growth remains sub 2%: This is consistent with the weakening housing releases: This is consistent with weakening consumer spending: This is consistent with weakening vehicle sales: Corporate bonds
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Housing starts, consumer sentiment, credit growth article
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Jun 16, 2017
Down and prior month revised down and permits way down as well. All in line with the previously discussed deceleration in bank real estate lending that began just after the elections in November: Highlights The bad economic news keeps building, this time in the housing sector. Housing starts fell an unexpected 5.5
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Fed surveys, Industrial production, Housing market index, Fed’s gdp forecasts
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Jun 15, 2017
These spiked up with the Presidential election and are only slowly coming back down: Muddling through at just over a 2% annual rate, but q2 looking weaker than q1: Highlights Forget about all the strength in the low sample-sized regional reports. Government data are not pointing to strength at all as manufacturing
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State Taxes and Spending
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Jun 14, 2017
States tend to be pro cyclical. As tax collections slow, so does spending:
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Retail sales, CPI, business inventories
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Jun 14, 2017
Highlights Consumer spending was unusually weak in the first quarter and doesn’t look to be improving this quarter. Retail sales fell 0.3 percent in May vs Econoday’s consensus for a 0.1 percent gain. Weakness riddles the report including a 1.0 percent drop for department stores, a 0.2 percent decline for autos, and
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NFIB small business index, household spending expectations, restaurant performance index, Trump news
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Jun 13, 2017
Trumped up expectations coming off only slowly. Actual business conditions have not yet responded: Not much optimism here: Trumped up expectations reversed more quickly here: Indicates active selling of US equities and buying of euro equities. This could be part of the process of portfolio managers selling $US to buy euro, reversing
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