Author Archive

ISM and Fed surveys, China services, Profits

Last month’s reported increase reversed, as the downward slope continues: ...Read More

Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed manufacturing index

Still in contraction: ...Read More

2019 vs 2018

So how has 2019 been vs 2018? Tariffs continue to take their toll, and all the voters seem to notice is the stock market? Whatever! Fed study finds Trump tariffs backfired This is only a partial list: (service sector) ...Read More

Bank loans, Public debt

Going south fast since the tariffs: Tiny blip up from rate cuts seems to have reversed as real estate lending growth remains depressed: This is best thought of as the ‘net money supply’ or ‘the equity that supports the credit structure:’ ...Read More

Philly Fed index, Fear and greed stats, Oil capex

The edge of recession? Fear and Greed Index Still contracting: ...Read More

Richmond Fed, Chemicals barometer, Cass freight

Right back into contraction: Not looking so good: ...Read More

P/E ratios, Spending bill, Manufacturing, Claims chart

Looking like it will add some 10ths to GDP, depending on mulitples: Budget watchdogs howl over deficit-ballooning deals Measures tacked onto government spending bills this week will amount to $426 billion in lost revenue over the next decade Through q2: ...Read More

Philly Fed, Existing home sales, Leading indicators, Spain, Rails

More bad news: Rolling over: Consensus Outlook The consensus for November’s index of leading economic indicators is an increase of 0.1 percent in what would follow three straight declines. Reversals for manufacturing and slowing in the labor market have been negatives for this index. ...Read More

JOLTS, Fed lending survey, Tariff comment

Still rolling over: ...Read More

Japan trade, Mtg purchase apps, Architecture index, Trump comment

Global trade collapse continues: Looks like more of same- L shaped recovery since the financial crisis: Still looking weak: ...Read More