Author Archive

Consumer sentiment, oil prices, federal debt/GPD

Not looking good: Russians and Saudis now cooperating to set crude oil prices. Not good: Post covid fiscal contraction is underway and debt/gdp is forecast to fall a lot further. Most of the Federal assistance was the likes of unemployment benefits which have now expired and new spending programs from Congress seem ...Read More

Unemployment claims, employment, shipping costs, oil prices

Down a bit since Federal benefits expired. This materially cuts gov. spending: A lot worse than expected. They thought the end of Federal benefits would send people back to work. However, a cut in Federal spending cools down aggregate demand: Transitory comes to mind: Saudis and Russians are working together to set ...Read More

Unemployment claims, personal income and consumption, total vehicle sales

Who would have thought? This is through August which included Federal unemployment benefits that have subsequently expired. Income is now weaker than it was at the time of this report: Without transfer receipts income continues to lag pre covid levels: This is likely to go down in September with expiring Federal benefits: ...Read More

Consumer confidence, Richmond Fed, dollar index, CS house prices

Familiar pattern: Similar pattern- covid dip, bounce, fade: Remember all the talk about how all the money printing stuff after the crash and for covid, etc. was going to trash the $US, etc.? It’s not that easy to forecast: This is only through July. Seems to turn down in front of recessions, ...Read More

Services pmi, German survey, UK retail sales, oil, new home sales

Pretty much the whole world had a covid dip, bounce, and most recently a retreat as the economy appears to be rapidly decelerating as unemployment benefits expired and what’s left of the new fiscal spending is relatively small and keeps getting pushed out: Crude oil is another story. There was a covid ...Read More

Housing starts, buying conditions for houses, fiscal policy forecast

Up a bit but at best moving sideways: Not looking good for gdp unless private sector deficit spending comes to the rescue: (hat tip Patrick Rien) ...Read More

Consumer credit, jobless claims, commercial real estate index

Softening: Down more than expected. This is for the week ending Sep 4, as federal benefits expired. Lots of federal spending expiring: Commercial real estate index dipping: ...Read More

New Hires, Economic Optimism index, German sentiment

New hires dropped even as job openings rose: Fading fast: ...Read More

Rails, bank loans, unemployment rate

Looking weak: Nothing good happening here: Tiny glimmer of hope here? Lots more unemployment than the headline number: ...Read More

Unemployment claims, trade, vehicle sales

Still way above the 200,000 pre covid levels. Makes me wonder why so many people are still losing jobs: Weaker imports is likely a sign of a weaker US consumer: And oil isn’t much of a factor anymore: This is seriously low as supply issues continue: Dried-Up Inventory Sinks U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales ...Read More