Author Archive

Industrial production, Empire state manufacturing, Retail sales, PMI, Port traffic

Boring: Highlights A rise for mining offsets a dip for utilities making a modest 0.2 percent gain for manufacturing the story for November’s industrial economy. This report’s manufacturing component has been the only uneven indicator on the factory sector all year which limits the surprise of November’s results. Forecasters weren’t calling for ...Read More

Small business optimism survey, Private sector credit

Expectations all the more trumped up with the new tax bill, but the details show actual conditions aren’t doing so well: Highlights Optimism among small business owners is surging, according to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), whose Small Business Optimism Index rose 3.7 points in November to 107.5, the highest ...Read More

Credit check

Something happened about the time of the Presidential election that caused a sudden deceleration of bank lending, which had already been decelerating since the collapse of oil capex. And still no signs of a recovery here, as consumers seem to be instead dipping into savings to sustain consumption as personal income growth ...Read More

Employment, Consumer sentiment, Inventories

Higher than expected but last month revised lower, so seems best to wait a month (and sometimes more) for the revisions before passing judgement. And the wage data, if anything, is that of a very low demand economy with lots of excess capacity: Highlights Overheating may not be the description of the ...Read More

Disruptions

Disruptive headlines: Trump announces U.S. will recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital Trump: Government shutdown ‘could happen’ Saturday Mania in progress: ...Read More

ADP, Mtg purchase apps, Capital spending report, Oil prices

Winding down from post hurricane levels, however keep in mind this is a forecast of Friday’s number, not report of actual private payrolls: Highlights A pre-hurricane total of 190,000 is ADP’s call for November private payroll growth which would follow a hurricane-related upswing of 252,000 in October and 15,000 downswing in September. ...Read More

Trade, Redbook retail sales, PMI services, ISM services

As previously discussed, the US bill for oil imports went up: Highlights Fourth-quarter net exports get off to a weak start as October’s trade deficit, at $48.7 billion, comes in much deeper than expected and well beyond September’s revised $44.9 billion. Exports, at $195.9 billion in the month, failed to improve in ...Read More

Factory orders, Cash bonuses, Oil prices

As the chart shows, year over year growth has gone to near 0 since the election, and the hurricane replacement effect has since dissipated: Highlights A big upward revision to core capital goods highlights today’s factory orders report which closes the book on what was a mixed October for manufacturing. The month’s ...Read More

Construction spending, Rig count, Fed US leading index, Flynn news

Up a bit this month but as per the chart it’s bumping along at recession type levels: Highlights It’s not housing that drove construction spending up a very sharp 1.4 percent in October but non-residential activity which had been lagging in this report. Spending on private non-residential construction jumped 0.9 percent in ...Read More

Gross domestic income

GDI (gross domestic income) = GDP (gross domestic product) by identity. The funds spent to buy the output are the income of the sellers of the same output. But the government gets the data for each independently, which includes estimates of various categories, so the reported numbers don’t equate when initially released, ...Read More