Author Archive
Consumer sentiment, oil prices, federal debt/GPD
Economic Releases
Oct 15, 2021
Not looking good: Russians and Saudis now cooperating to set crude oil prices. Not good: Post covid fiscal contraction is underway and debt/gdp is forecast to fall a lot further. Most of the Federal assistance was the likes of unemployment benefits which have now expired and new spending programs from Congress seem
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Unemployment claims, employment, shipping costs, oil prices
Economic Releases
Oct 08, 2021
Down a bit since Federal benefits expired. This materially cuts gov. spending: A lot worse than expected. They thought the end of Federal benefits would send people back to work. However, a cut in Federal spending cools down aggregate demand: Transitory comes to mind: Saudis and Russians are working together to set
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Unemployment claims, personal income and consumption, total vehicle sales
Economic Releases
Oct 01, 2021
Who would have thought? This is through August which included Federal unemployment benefits that have subsequently expired. Income is now weaker than it was at the time of this report: Without transfer receipts income continues to lag pre covid levels: This is likely to go down in September with expiring Federal benefits:
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Consumer confidence, Richmond Fed, dollar index, CS house prices
Economic Releases
Sep 28, 2021
Familiar pattern: Similar pattern- covid dip, bounce, fade: Remember all the talk about how all the money printing stuff after the crash and for covid, etc. was going to trash the $US, etc.? It’s not that easy to forecast: This is only through July. Seems to turn down in front of recessions,
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Services pmi, German survey, UK retail sales, oil, new home sales
Economic Releases
Sep 24, 2021
Pretty much the whole world had a covid dip, bounce, and most recently a retreat as the economy appears to be rapidly decelerating as unemployment benefits expired and what’s left of the new fiscal spending is relatively small and keeps getting pushed out: Crude oil is another story. There was a covid
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Housing starts, buying conditions for houses, fiscal policy forecast
Economic Releases
Sep 22, 2021
Up a bit but at best moving sideways: Not looking good for gdp unless private sector deficit spending comes to the rescue: (hat tip Patrick Rien)
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Consumer credit, jobless claims, commercial real estate index
Economic Releases
Sep 09, 2021
Softening: Down more than expected. This is for the week ending Sep 4, as federal benefits expired. Lots of federal spending expiring: Commercial real estate index dipping:
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New Hires, Economic Optimism index, German sentiment
Economic Releases
Sep 08, 2021
New hires dropped even as job openings rose: Fading fast:
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Rails, bank loans, unemployment rate
Economic Releases
Sep 06, 2021
Looking weak: Nothing good happening here: Tiny glimmer of hope here? Lots more unemployment than the headline number:
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Unemployment claims, trade, vehicle sales
Economic Releases
Sep 02, 2021
Still way above the 200,000 pre covid levels. Makes me wonder why so many people are still losing jobs: Weaker imports is likely a sign of a weaker US consumer: And oil isn’t much of a factor anymore: This is seriously low as supply issues continue: Dried-Up Inventory Sinks U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales
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