Author Archive
Retail sales, Housing starts, Philly Fed
Economic Releases
Aug 16, 2018
June was revised lower, so best to hold back judgement on July until August is released. Note vehicles were revised quite a bit lower for June, with the initially reported .9 jump suspect in any case: Highlights Demand for autos has cooled but not overall retail sales which rose 0.5 percent in
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Consumer credit, Miles driven, Income revision
Economic Releases
Aug 08, 2018
More Q2 weakness: Highlights Consumers credit came in below expectations, up $10.2 B in June as consumers held back from adding to their credit-card debt and even paid off some of it following a spending spree in the previous month. Revolving credit, which includes credit cards and which posted the biggest increase
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Trade, Employment, ISM, Japan swf
Economic Releases
Aug 03, 2018
Larger than expected which also means q2 GDP will be revised down some: Highlights The nation’s trade deficit proved a little deeper than expected in June,, at $46.3 billion vs Econoday’s consensus for $45.6 billion. After a run of strength going back to February, exports posted a 0.7 percent decline to $213.8
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Motor vehicle sales, Factory orders
Economic Releases
Aug 02, 2018
Highlights Unit vehicle sales proved surprisingly weak in July, at a 16.8 million annualized rate vs 17.2 million in June. This is the lowest rate since August last year but it will be the comparison with June that will pull down forecasts for July’s retail sales report. Vehicles were a valuable contributor
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Vehicle sales, Mtg purchase applications, Construction spending, Payrolls, Tesla
Economic Releases
Aug 01, 2018
A lot worse than expected as sales are clearly going south: U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decrease to 16.7 million annual rate in July Read more at https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/#ZO2HJY5rKwX1XQfU.99 Highlights Purchase applications for home mortgages fell a seasonally adjusted 3 percent in the July 27 week, posting the third weekly decline in a row,
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Personal income and spending, Pending home sales
Economic Releases
Jul 31, 2018
The benchmark revisions were substantial and the data now paints a very different picture: Highlights Easing inflation pressure along with healthy consumer vital signs is the message from the personal income & outlays report for June. Both price indexes, the overall and the closely watched core rate which excludes food and energy,
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GDP, World trade
Economic Releases
Jul 30, 2018
So the savings rate puzzle, where consumption was exceeding income, has now been reconciled with large upward revisions in personal income. And looks like the credit expansion that supplied the income and drove the spending was from non-residents. The next monthly consumption and income releases will bring it all up to date:
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Durable goods, Trade, Inventories, Apartment survey
Economic Releases
Jul 26, 2018
The tax cuts helped the economy though they were relatively small and largely low multiple, but tariffs are tax increases and work to reduce real consumption if income doesn’t also adjust. Also, there could have been some front running ahead of the dates the tariffs go into effect. This adds volatility to
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Mtg apps, Home sales, Soy beans, Puerto Rico employment, Iran comments
Economic Releases
Jul 25, 2018
Housing continues to roll over and is no negative year over year: Highlights Purchase applications for home mortgages fell a seasonally adjusted 1 percent in the July 20 week, while applications for refinancing increased by 1 percent from the previous week. Unadjusted, purchase applications were 2 percent higher than in the same
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Retail sales, Home buying index, Auto index, Summit statements
Economic Releases
Jul 16, 2018
Mixed bag again, as auto sales contributions are volatile in a generally softening auto market. And the Fed estimates the tax cuts and spending increases will add about .4-.5% to GDP this year. Also, the spending numbers are not inflation adjusted, and year over year cpi has been moving higher: Highlights Strong
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