Author Archive

Personal consumption, personal spending, rig count

Settling down as fiscal transfers subside, but still elevated: Income falling faster than consumption is growing: Real Personal Income less Transfer Payments ...Read More

Jobless claims, corporate profits, Fed, COVID testing

Still over 1million new claims last week. This is seriously bad: They had already leveled off well before the collapse: As the carpenter said about his piece of wood: ‘No matter how much I cut off it’s still too short.’ They still have the interest rate thing backwards: Testing is down as ...Read More

Job postings, Bank loans

Falling off again: After a typical precautionary draw down of credit lines, business loan growth turned and remains negative: Total bank credit has gone flat: Consumer borrowing is down, partly because of fiscal policy, and partly due to reduced spending: Real estate lending has slowed, but not by a whole lot: ...Read More

Oil drilling, Oil demand, Jobless claims, Architecture billings

Demand for petrol products dropping with the end of unemployment comp: Back up over 1 million new claims last week. Relapse underway without immediate fiscal adjustments: This leading indicator remains seriously depressed: ...Read More

Housing starts, Japan, consumer spending, Europe, house prices

Looks like at best it’s going sideways: Bad!!! The Japanese economy shrank 7.8 percent on quarter in the three months to June 2020, compared with market forecasts of a 7.6 percent decline, and after a 0.6 percent fall in the previous period, a preliminary estimate showed. This was the third straight quarter ...Read More

Vehicle sales, retail sales, industrial production

Remains depressed and had been slowing for several years: Seems back on track due to unemployment comp, etc. which has recently expired: Familiar pattern: ...Read More

Employment

Some are going back to work, but employment is still dramatically low: Hiring of lower paid workers drives the average wage lower: Note the unprecedented drop in the labor force: ...Read More

Consumer spending, trade, layoffs, jobless claims, political comments

Still very weak- gone from increasing to decreasing: Slowdown plus fiscal adjustment supporting income increased imports vs exports, and oil production going from positive to negative is still in progress: Layoffs continue at a very high level as firms who kept employees with gov assistance are now letting them go: New jobless ...Read More

Durable goods orders, private payrolls

Familiar pattern, up a bit but still depressed What the President has been doing is expressing these moves up from the collapse in percentage terms, then stating the percentage gains are the largest ever, as indications that the economy is booming, etc. It’s either shameless spinning, or, worse, he actually believes it… ...Read More

Personal income and consumption

This shows the dependence on federal deficit spending to sustain incomes; Real personal consumption has collapsed-and particularly for services- far more than in 2008/09 even with the increase in personal income from the stimulus checks and enhanced unemployment compensation. A large part of the reason is that it isn’t safe to go ...Read More