Author Archive

Architectural index, Corporate leverage, Saudi oil pricing

Muddling through at depressed levels: Saudis set price. If they decide to hike as below, it will happen: OPEC’s new price hawk Saudi Arabia seeks oil as high as $100 Apr 18 (Reuters) — Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia would be happy to see crude rise to $80 or even $100 a ...Read More

Housing starts, Industrial production

Must be some tax thing driving multifamily last month: Highlights The residential construction business had a very strong March: housing starts easily topped Econoday’s high estimate at a 1.319 million annualized rate while permits came in just shy of the top estimate at a very strong 1.354 million. Multi-family units are the ...Read More

Retail sales, Business inventories, Port traffic, Infrastructure

Propped up by autos, as the rest continues weak, and autos aren’t looking so good longer term either: Highlights In a slight reversal of expectations, retail sales proved stronger at the headline level, up 0.6 percent in March, than the core readings which did however still post respectable gains at 0.3 percent ...Read More

Budget comments, ISM forecast, Global bank lending, Fed rate expectations, ECB Euro comments

Eine neue wissenschaftliche Wahrheit pflegt sich nicht in der Weise durchzusetzen, daß ihre Gegner überzeugt werden und sich als belehrt erklären, sondern vielmehr dadurch, daß ihre Gegner allmählich aussterben und daß die heranwachsende Generation von vornherein mit der Wahrheit vertraut gemacht ist. “A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its ...Read More

Employment, Consumer credit, Bank loans

Highlights In mixed results, March payroll growth of 103,000 is well below expectations but wage indications from average hourly earnings do show a little pressure as was expected, up 0.3 percent on the month with the year-on-year rate up 1 tenth to 2.7 percent. The unemployment rate did not move down which ...Read More

Small business jobs index, Balance of trade, Domestic vehicle sales

Small business jobs index down some and not looking good: Weak $ stuff: ...Read More

Construction spending, Private credit growth, Turkey

Worse than expected, weak, and decelerating: Highlights Construction spending has been soft, inching only 0.1 percent higher in February after posting no change in January but there are definitely signs of strength in the details. The most important gains are being posted for new single-family homes, up 0.9 percent for a second ...Read More

Personal income and spending, Gross Domestic Income, Bank lending

Everything pretty much as expected, more comments via the charts: Highlights Inflation data are inching higher while softness in spending is offset by strength in wages. The core PCE price index managed only an as-expected 0.2 percent gain in February though the year-on-year rate moved a notch higher to 1.6 percent, which ...Read More

Pending home sales, Trade, Profits

The second article reveals the year over year situation, which takes out seasonal factors: Highlights Existing home sales have been struggling to move higher but today’s pending home sales index will raise expectations for improvement. Pending home sales rose a sharp 3.1 percent in data for February though they follow an even ...Read More

Oil prices, Euro lending, Euro comment

Saudis could be targeting a euro price rather than a $US price? It’s their call! With capped national deficits the economy needs growing private sector deficit spending or a growing current account surplus to satisfy growing savings desires: Low inflation = weak currency??? :( ...Read More