Author Archive

Jobless claims, ADP payrolls, ISM services, Vehicle sales

Employment growth has stalled: Not looking good: Also fading: ...Read More

Durable goods, pending home sales, personal income and spending, consumer credit

Back to 2018 levels with lots lost during the dip: Still drifting lower: Another round of Federal checks hit last month: The economy is generating less personal income than pre covid and fading: Some of the increased income was saved: Some was spent, but consumption has still not fully recovered: Consumer borrowing ...Read More

New home sales, mortgage purchase applications, bank real estate lending, crude oil prices

Settling in at perhaps somewhat higher levels: Promising! Not showing up here yet: No telling what the Saudis are up to: ...Read More

Consumer sentiment, unemployment claims, housing starts, lumber, retail sales, industrial production

Alarmingly high this long after the crisis and no longer moving lower: Seems ‘on average’ it’s hard to say much has changed: Though this looks promising: Tariffs and Covid related supply issues are commonplace: Nice move up after the move down, but still looking net lower than otherwise for the last 12 ...Read More

Small business index, JOLTS, corn

Back to where it was pre Trump: New hires down, openings up some but that includes openings to replace higher cost workers: Exporting our food supply (in addition to turning it into motor fuel and burning it up) so we can pay more fighting over what’s left: ...Read More


Looking bad: Looks like the long term growth of government employment was reversed by Obama, then it increased under Trump until the covid crisis: ...Read More

Claims, durable goods orders, vehicle sales

Still massively elevated: Orders are about back to where they were but remain at sub 2018 levels: Still soft and sales lost during the dip not recovered: Sales continue to shift from passenger cars: ...Read More

Personal income and spending

Personal income went up with the crisis due to Federal transfers of the Cares Act, which subsequently faded: Personal income excluding government support continues to lag behind prior levels: Even with the higher levels of total personal income consumption has lagged and most recently decreased as government benefits expired: A part of ...Read More

Trade, architecture billings, Covid chart, bank lending

Promising: No recovery yet: ...Read More

Unemployment claims, consumer sentiment, household debt

No problem here seems: ...Read More