Author Archive

Housing permits and starts, GDP forecast

Permits back on trend after a post-Covid bounce? Starts down a bit but perhaps leveling off around pre covid levels. Certainly not a major collapse yet: Multi-family doing better than single-family: Another tick up in the Fed Atlanta’s GDP calculations: ...Read More

Industrial production, EU trade, miles driven

No sign here that the rate hikes have slowed growth: This is what has been hurting their currency: This series is showing signs of slowing, perhaps due to working from home: ...Read More

Retail sales, consumer sentiment

Leveled off well above pre-Covid levels, and were held down by falling gasoline prices- no recession here: Adjusted for CPI/inflation: This was falling from the post-Covid fiscal collapse but has since recovered with the rate hikes: ...Read More

Commercial real estate leading index, producer prices, consumer prices, jobless claims

Looking up, as have been most indicators since the rate hikes, which continue to add serious amounts of interest income paid by government (deficit spending) to the economy: Calculated Risk: Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate “Rises” in September (calculatedriskblog.com) Still high enough for the Fed to keep raising rates, etc: Higher ...Read More

Employment, GDP Nowcast, oil prices, equity comment

Employment growth remains strong as rate hikes continue to contribute to a now rising federal deficit that is supporting growth, contrary to Fed expectations. This leads to more hikes intended to soften growth and inflation that in fact support growth and inflation: The Saudis are on the warpath after a falling out ...Read More

ISM services, ADP, oil, trade, Fed Atlanta GDP Now

Remains in positive growth mode: No recession indication here- this is a forecast for Friday’s employment report: My take is at the July meeting with President Biden the Saudis agreed to bring prices down in return for various favors. The only way for this to happen was for them to confidentially discount ...Read More

CB gold purchases, heavy trucks, total vehicle sales, mortgage purchase applications, new homes under construction

Central Banks Are Stocking Up On Gold Which Countries Own the Most Gold | SchiffGold “Central banks purchase a net 270 tons of gold through the first half of the year. This fell in line with the five-year H1 average of 266 tons.” This is the driving force behind gold. When central ...Read More

Job openings, hires, Manufacturers orders, real estate lending

Continues to look to me to like the increased government deficit from the rate hikes, at the macro level, continues to support output and employment and is not triggering a recession as feared? Still a very high number- well above pre-Covid levels: Back to pre-Covid trend line: A slight decline for the ...Read More

Construction spending, GDP forecast, Canada PMI, earnings forecasts

So far so good for Q3 that ended Sep 30- about in line with pre-Covid growth rates: Much like the US, much of the rest of the world is hiking rates with high debt/GDP and supporting their economies that had slowed from fiscal contraction with massive government interest payments- universal basic income ...Read More

Commodity prices, PMI index

Lots of commodities to or near pre-Covid levels: Still looking lower but still positive and not yet indicating recession: ...Read More