Author Archive
ADP, Chicago PMI, Buy backs, Domestic product sales
Economic Releases
Jul 31, 2019
Rolling over: Highlights ADP estimates that private payroll growth in Friday’s employment report for July will rise 156,000. Econoday’s consensus for this estimate was 155,000 and forecasters see actual private payrolls coming in at 160,000 in Friday’s report vs 191,000 in June. Highlights In the lowest reading in 4-1/2 years, the Chicago
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Personal income and consumption, Home prices, Pending home sales, Oil capex, Euro area
Economic Releases
Jul 30, 2019
Income and consumption is growing at lower but moderate pace, but has been decelerating since the tariffs started to bite and global trade began its collapse: Highlights The month-to-month breakdown of consumer spending shows slowing in what will offer support for those on the FOMC who want to cut interest rates this
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GDI, Productivity, China pmi, Dallas Fed
Economic Releases
Jul 29, 2019
Gross domestic income was just revised higher. The blue bars are the previously reported levels and the red bars are the revised levels. This further meant that the savings rate unspent income) was higher as previously discussed. And an increasing savings rate generally reflects a deceleration in borrowing: Lack of aggregate demand-
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Durable goods, KC Fed, Mtg purchase apps, New home sales, US and euro area PMI’s, Trump quote
Economic Releases
Jul 26, 2019
Year over year in contraction. And the chart is not adjusted for inflation: Negative: Lower rates don’t seem to be helping: Highlights The purchase index continues to pull back in what is an unfavorable indication for underlying home sales. After falling 4.0 percent in the prior week, the index fell 2.0 percent
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Mtg purchase apps, New home sales, US and euro area PMI’s, Trump quote
Economic Releases
Jul 25, 2019
Lower rates don’t seem to be helping: Highlights The purchase index continues to pull back in what is an unfavorable indication for underlying home sales. After falling 4.0 percent in the prior week, the index fell 2.0 percent in the July 19 week to pull down year-on-year growth to 6.0 percent. Refinancing
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Existing home sales, Richmond Fed, UK factory orders, Chemical Activity Barometer
Economic Releases
Jul 23, 2019
Worse than expected and in contraction year over year: Highlights The housing market firmed in the early Spring but has since flattened out. Existing home sales came in softer-than-expected at a 5.270 million annual rate in June which, however, is right in line with the 3-month average of 5.280 million. This average
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Housing starts, Architecture index, Foreign home buyers
Economic Releases
Jul 18, 2019
Rolled over and on the decline and from highs that were at historically depressed levels: Now in contraction: From the AIA: Design services demand stalled in June, Project inquiry gains hit a 10-year low Demand for design services at architecture firms decreased in June in comparison to the previous month, according to
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Trucking index, Tariffs, Singapore exports, Turkey retail sales
Economic Releases
Jul 17, 2019
FTR Trucking Conditions Index weakens in May The President is in no hurry because he narrowly views the some $5 billion/mo in tariff revenues as a profit for the US at China’s expense, totally insensitive to the global economic downturn this ‘tax hike’ has created: Trade war to drag on as Trump
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Retail sales, Industrial production, Housing index, Business inventories
Economic Releases
Jul 16, 2019
Better than expected: Highlights Taking out a policy-insurance rate cut when the main driver of the economy is booming sounds a little counter-intuitive, in retail sales results that came in much stronger than expected in June. Total sales rose 0.4 percent in the month with ex-auto sales also up 0.4 percent —
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NY manufacturing, China retail sales, US car sales
Economic Releases
Jul 15, 2019
Up this month but trending lower: China has been trying to recover with fiscal adjustments: Doesn’t include pickups and other light trucks:
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