Author Archive

Euro area business climate, US small business employment, Japan retail sales, Australia

Happy Thanksgiving to all! Who would’ve thought? ;) Australia Q3 Private Investment Falls More than Estimated Private capital expenditure in Australia dropped by 0.2 percent quarter-on-quarter in the three months to September 2019, following a revised 0.6 percent fall in the previous period and compared with market expectations of a 0.1 percent ...Read More

Durable goods orders, Personal consumption and spending, Richmond Fed, Chicago PMI, Chemicals

In contraction: Deceleration that was temporarily interrupted by the tax cuts has resumed with the tariffs: The Manufacturing Activity Index in the US fifth district including the District of Columbia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and most of West Virginia decreased to -1 in November 2019 from 8 in the previous ...Read More

Trucks, Chemicals, Oil, Fed comments

America’s largest truck-engine manufacturer just announced 2,000 layoffs — and it’s another sign of the trucking ‘bloodbath’ that’s slamming the $800 billion industry Volvo announces mass layoffs due to lack of demand for trucks US Chemical Output Slows in October As Manufacturing Cools Oil Drillers Continue to Remove Rigs From Permian Basin ...Read More

Top news, Chicago Fed, Dallas Fed, Philly Fed, Fed coincident indicators

Top news!!! ;) Deceleration most everywhere: Chicago Fed National Activity Index Falls Unexpectedly The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.71 in October from -0.45 in September and below market forecasts of -0.43. That was the lowest reading since April, as all four categories made negative contributions to the index. Production-related ...Read More

US PMI’s, KC Fed, Euro area services, UK services, Germany services and GDP

Tariffs taking their toll and no end in sight as global deceleration continues for both goods and services. These surveys are up a bit this month but still very low and too soon to suggest a reversal: Note how this blipped up last month but then resumed the downtrend: Deceleration resumes after ...Read More

Home sales, Philly Fed, Claims, Fed staffers, US leading index, Australia

Historically depressed and rolling over: The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index for current general activity rose by 4.8 points from the previous month to 10.4 in November 2019, beating market expectations of 7.0. Meanwhile, the indexes for current shipments and new orders fell 17.8 points and 9.1 points respectively. In addition, the current ...Read More

Architecture Billings Index, Mortgate purchase apps, Trade deal

My take is that our President is focused on the $US he’s collecting from the tariffs which he construes as ‘winnng’: Markets more fearful about trade war, but still see chance for phase one deal and tariff rollback ...Read More

Housing, Eurozone construction, Singapore, Consumer comfort, Air freight

You can see from the charts how depressed this cycle has been, and how housing has stalled out overall for the last few years, and all with ultra low mortgage rates: Permits which are more volatile have ‘spiked’ back to 1965 levels when the population was about half: A relatively small economy ...Read More

Corp cash allocations, DB charts, Global light vehicle sales

Corporate cash flow turning? ...Read More

Rig count, Retail sales, Industrial production, NY Manufacturing, Atlanta Fed

More bad news for oil related capital expenditures: U.S. Rig Count Crashes Again: Loses Nearly 100 Rigs In 3 Months Highlights The Baker Hughes North American rig count is down 17 rigs in the November 15 week to 940. The U.S. rig count is down 11 rigs from last week to 806 ...Read More