Author Archive

News headlines- weakness continues, Mtg apps, Pending home sales, Confidence, ADP employment, MMT articles

Apple says China sales fell 27% last quarter (Nikkei) Apple’s net sales in greater China, including the mainland, Hong Kong and Taiwan, fell 27% on the year to $13.17 billion for the three months ended Dec. 29 in results announced Tuesday. This marked the first downturn there in six quarters. Combined sales ...Read More

Trade, China

Imports up, exports down: China’s December industrial profits fall for 2nd straight month (Reuters) Profits notched up by China’s industrial firms declined 1.9 percent from a year earlier to 680.8 billion yuan ($100.9 billion) in December. For the full-year of 2018, industrial profits increased 10.3 percent on an annual basis to 6.64 ...Read More

Global growth indicators

Agent Orange, AKA Tariff Man, taking down the global economy: Intel Projects Slower Revenue Growth This Year (WSJ) Intel Corp. reported a 9% gain in revenue. Customers’ robust appetite for server chips boosted data-center businesses by 45% through the first nine months of 2018, but now those buyers need to digest those ...Read More

Sentiment indicators, Shutdown slowdowns

Euro area business growth close to stalling at 5½ year low in January (Markit) Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index at 50.7 (51.1 in December). Services PMI Activity Index at 50.8 (51.2 in December). Manufacturing PMI Output Index at 50.4 (51.0 in December). Manufacturing PMI at 50.5 (51.4 in December). The factory ...Read More

Existing home sales, Trade, BOJ

Bad: Highlights Mortgage rates began to move down in December but it wasn’t soon enough to help the month’s resales. Existing home sales fell a sharper-than-expected 6.4 percent to a 4.990 million annualized rate that is the lowest in more than three years and barely makes Econoday’s consensus range. Weakness across the ...Read More

Surveys, Housing 55+ and investment, FT mention

Trade issues taking their toll: This too has gone flat: Nice mentions for Stephanie and a also bit for me here, as MMT is now on a roll: ...Read More

Budget, Asian airfreight, US profit forecast, Growth index, Capex, Share buybacks

December 2018 CBO Monthly Budget Review: Total Receipts Up by 1% And Spending Up 9% in the First Quarter of Fiscal Year 2019 The federal budget deficit was $317 billion for the first quarter of fiscal year 2019, CBO estimates, $92 billion more than the deficit recorded during the same period last ...Read More

Employment, Euro pmi, Chile retail sales, Goldman index. Leveraged loans, Bank credit

Agent Orange, the self proclaimed tariff man, taking the EU: US decelerating: I would have expected Chile to be affected most by global warming… It’s becoming more clear to me that lending shifted from banks to other investment entities via the leveraged loan process, and the growth in that credit channel is ...Read More

Profits, Bank lending, Factory activity, Mtg apps, Auto sales

Corporate Profit Crunch Looms as Stocks Slide (WSJ) In December, analysts cut their earnings forecasts for 2019 on more than half the companies in the S&P 500, according to FactSet, the first time that had happened in two years. They expect earnings for S&P 500 companies to grow 7.8% in 2019, down ...Read More

Dallas Fed survey, California home sales, Tariff exemptions

Not good: California Home Sales Slowest For An October In Seven Years (Econintersect) California home sales fell year over year for the third consecutive month, hitting a seven-year low for an October, as affordability constraints and a more cautious stance by many would-be buyers continued to weigh on the market. Interesting. Wonder ...Read More