Author Archive

Retail sales, Home buying index, Auto index, Summit statements

Mixed bag again, as auto sales contributions are volatile in a generally softening auto market. And the Fed estimates the tax cuts and spending increases will add about .4-.5% to GDP this year. Also, the spending numbers are not inflation adjusted, and year over year cpi has been moving higher: Highlights Strong ...Read More

CPI, EM export growth, Corporate debt growth, QE

Still looks to me like the rate increases have offered some support for the economy and also pushed cpi higher? Interest income channels? Forward pricing channels? ;) Corporate debt growth decelerating; ...Read More

Small business survey, Job openings and hires, Employment growth, Cycle comps

Highlights The Small Business Optimism Index retreated by 0.6 points in June to 107.2, the sixth highest reading in the NFIB survey’s 45 years history. Beating the consensus forecast calling for a more substantial decline after May’s upward surge to the second highest level in the history of the survey, the optimism ...Read More

Employment, Auto sales, Japan

Low wage growth tells me spending remains under pressure: Highlights A very healthy employment report that shows brisk growth and also a movement into the workforce is headlined by a stronger-than-expected 213,000 rise in nonfarm payrolls for June which just tops Econoday’s consensus range. A sharp rise in the number of unemployed ...Read More

Construction spending, NYC real estate, Saudi pricing, Trump on Harley

Last month revised a lot lower, and this month weak as well, as inflation-adjusted spending growth remains negative: Note from US Census: Notice: With this release, unadjusted data have been revised back to January 2016 and seasonally adjusted data back to January 2011. All revised estimates are available on our website. With ...Read More

Gross domestic income, Personal income and spending

The above are quarterly from GDP data. Today’s release is monthly, and, as suggested by the far too low personal savings rate, consumption was revised down a bit and has come in lower this month. However, income was also revised lower, with wage income growth weak even with the reported employment growth, ...Read More

Mtg purchase apps, Durable goods orders, Pending home sales, Rental vacancy, International trade, Trump threat

Highlights Disruption tied to a fire at an auto supplier not only pulled down the previously released manufacturing component of the industrial production report but it also helped pull down durable goods orders in May which fell an as-expected 0.6 percent. Vehicle orders fell 4.2 percent in the month with vehicle shipments ...Read More

New home sales, OPEC, Tariffs, bank lending

Up more than expected, but last month revised quite a bit lower as well, as housing overall remains depressed: This is not population adjusted: OPEC ministers strike deal on oil production levels A source confirmed to CNBC that a deal has been struck and a statement critical of the U.S. that Iran ...Read More

Mtg apps, Current account, Existing home sales, Wage growth, Equity valuations

Purchase applications remain negative this year vs last: Highlights The June 15 week was an active one for mortgage bankers as the purchase index rose a solid 4.0 percent and the refinance index 6.0 percent. Despite the jump in the purchase index, its year-on-year rate remains in the negative column for a ...Read More

Housing starts, Redbook retail sales, Euro current account

No houses get built without a permit: Highlights The good news in May’s housing starts report is centered in the present, less so in the outlook. Starts jumped 5.0 percent in the month to a 1.350 million annualized rate that hits the top end of Econoday’s consensus range and that should give ...Read More