Author Archive

Econointersect indicator, South Korea, Fed Chicago, Dallas Fed, Trump comment

Been contracting all year: Contraction: ...Read More

UK, China, Philli Fed index, Flipper lending

Still contracting: This indicator is flashing recession again. Last time this happened a few years ago the numbers were subsequently revised higher: Not a good sign: Lending to house flippers hits a 13-year high as prices and competition heat up ...Read More

GDP, Corporate profits, Expectations vs conditions, Singapore

Tariffs taking a bite- deceleration in progress: Corporate profits had been flat, got a one time boost from the tax cuts, and then flattened again: The non financial’s have done even worse: Contraction: ...Read More

New home sales, Chemical activity barometer

Up a bit last month, but note they are less than half of where they were the last cycle, and hovering around early 1980’s levels, when there were a lot fewer people: Down to no annual growth: ...Read More

Home prices, Richmond Fed, Consumer confidence

More deceleration: US Home Price Growth Slows to New 7-Year Low The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city home price index in the US rose 2% year-on-year in July, missing market expectations of 2.2%. It was the smallest annual gain in house prices since August 2012. Phoenix recorded the biggest increase in home prices, ...Read More

ECB trade comments, US rates, UK, Germany, France, Japan

Someone else agrees with me about the tariffs and the global trade collapse: CNBC: The trade war is weighing ‘like a big, dark cloud’ on the global economy, says Christine Lagarde. And this would function like a tax increase: Bloomberg: President Trump Doubles Down on Call for Negative Interest Rates. Today’s tariff ...Read More

Chicago Fed, US PMI, Euro area

Highlights A snapback for manufacturing production led a jump into the positive column for the national activity index which at 0.10 marks the second positive score in three months. Yet the 3-month average, at minus 0.06, remains in the negative column for the seventh straight month. Manufacturing has been the center of ...Read More

Rails, Bank loans, Oil rig count, Trump comments

Still contracting: Commercial loan growth has flattened this year: Oil capex seems to be headed south again. Might take higher prices to bring it back. And the way the decline curves work output should be peaking soon and then declining: Highlights The Baker Hughes North American rig count is down 33 rigs ...Read More

Trump initiatives

Today happens to be the eco strike: Trump grants tariff exemptions to plastic straws, dog leashes and more from China Must be some defense agreement no one else knows about: Trump sanctions Iran’s central bank in wake of strikes on Saudi oil facilities No end to tariffs in sight, and no interest ...Read More

New home sales, Manufacturing surveys, Trump on Fed, Pence, Turkey

Up some for the month, but remain weak and depressed historically, especially on a per capita basis: Manufacturing surveys continue to forecast weakness: I think what he wants rate cuts because he (and most everyone else) believes that will make the dollar go down which he further believes will reduce the trade ...Read More