Author Archive

Credit check, Vehicle sales forecast

Hard to say the credit collapse is over. And as the causation is “bank loans create bank deposits” that component of the ‘money supply’ is decelerating as well: The seasonally adjusted rate of sales continues to work it’s way lower: From WardsAuto: Forecast: U.S. March Sales to Reach 17-Year High A WardsAuto ...Read More

Services and manufacturing PMI, Durable goods orders, Atlanta Fed

Trumped up expectations fading, as weakness in the service sector continues, And if Trump loses today’s health care vote, I expect those expectations to fade that much faster: Highlights All in the mid-to-low 50s and at 6-month lows, a significant moderation in growth is the signal from Markit Economics’ U.S. diffusion indexes. ...Read More

New home sales

More than expected but as per the chart it looks like they’ve peaked and are working their way lower. And as no house is built without a permit, and permits are also soft, I don’t see anything good happening. Also, bank lending for real estate has been decelerating and mortgage applications are ...Read More

FHA house price index, Existing home sales, Industrial production

This was a surprise: Highlights In an unusually weak showing, the FHFA house price index came in unchanged in January with year-on-year appreciation falling a steep 5 tenths to 5.7 percent. This is the weakest month-to-month showing in more than 4 years and the weakest year-on-year rate in 2-1/2 years. Also weak: ...Read More

Credit check

Note how it’s all been decelerating since the collapse in oil capex, and most recently the deceleration has intensified: This is the absolute level of loans outstanding, which seems to only go negative like this in recessions This is the annual growth rate which appears to be in a state of collapse: ...Read More

Housing starts, Atlanta Fed Q1 GDP forecast

No houses built without a permit: Highlights Strength in single-family permits leads a mostly favorable housing starts report for February where however the headlines are mixed, at a 1.288 million annualized rate for starts and a 1.213 million rate for total permits. The results compare with Econoday expectations of 1.270 million for ...Read More

Mtg purchase apps, Retail sales, Business inventories, Housing index

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent higher than the same week one year ago. Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/#rYAGsCBZRKvRLYa4.99 Depressed and moving sideways for over a year: Prior month revised up, ...Read More

NFIB index, Redbook retail sales, Oil

Trumped up expectations falling off some, and the details don’t look so good: Highlights The small business optimism index fell 0.6 points in February to 105.3, retreating slightly from the lofty levels reached in the previous months after the post-election surge in November and the largest increase in the history of the ...Read More

Credit check

Keeps getting worse and looks to me like it’s well below stall speed: ...Read More

Payrolls, Gasoline demand

Better than expected, but not nearly enough to even begin to conclude that the multi year deceleration has reversed: This chart does not tell me this multi year downtrend has been broken: And growth of the household survey is down to 1% year over year: Participation seems to be settling in at ...Read More