Author Archive

Bloomberg interview, Shipping, Lending, Profits, Trade, Pending home sales

Interest-Rate Policy Is Backward, Modern Monetary Theory Pioneer Mosler Says Under consumption identity: for ever agent that spent less than his income, another must have spent more, or the output would not have been sold. In other words, deficit spending, private or public, is the ‘offset’ to unspent income (savings). The chart ...Read More

Durable goods orders, earnings, container board, oil chart, German exports, infrastructure, GDP forecasts

More of same as trade war takes its toll globally: Headline Durable Goods New Orders Declined in April 2019. Inflation Adjusted New Orders Are In Contraction Trump to Democrats: No infrastructure without trade deal On the eve of a highly anticipated meeting with Democrats at which President Donald Trump was expected to ...Read More

Investment, Mtg origination, Bank loans

Real final sales slowing, and business equipment growth negative: From the NY Fed, reads like credit growth slowing: Total Household Debt Rises for 19th Straight Quarter, Now Nearly $1 Trillion Above Previous Peak The report includes a one-page summary of key takeaways and their supporting data points. Overarching trends from the Report’s ...Read More

Retail sales, Industrial production, Interest payments, Japan profits, Euro area fiscal balance

Weak and weaker than expected: Highlights The second quarter gets off to a stumbling start pulled down by a 0.2 percent headline decline in an April retail sales report where the core details show unexpected weakness. Excluding autos, in which sales were already expected to fall sharply, April sales managed only a ...Read More

PMI/GDP, House prices, Investigations update

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Employment, US PMI’s, Factory orders, Japan sales tax, HK, MMT comments

Headline number looks promising. The question is whether employment will lag the other indicators that are decelerating, or provide the support that turns them around. And note the .1 drop in the work week is equivalent to maybe to something over 100,000 jobs: Highlights That sound you hear is the economy revving ...Read More

Car sales, Euro area PMI’s

Continues to decelerate: Highlights Jerome Powell may have cited March auto sales as an economic plus in yesterday’s FOMC press conference, but April sales couldn’t keep up the pace. Unit vehicle sales managed only a 16.4 million annual rate in April which was far below March’s 17.5 million rate and well below ...Read More

Mtg purchase apps, Construction, SF home prices, ISM manufacturing, PMI chart, Trade agreement, Econ indicators

Dismal: Highlights The purchase index is down a sharp 4.0 percent for a second straight week, this time for the April 26 week. Year-on-year, the index is up only 1.0 percent which is not a favorable signal for the Spring housing push. Refinancing is also coming down, 11.0 percent lower for the ...Read More

GDP detail, Business optimism, Personal Income, Chicago PMI, US pending home sales, China news

Personal income not doing so well, as growth keeps ratcheting down: China April factory growth unexpectedly slows as economy struggles for traction (Reuters) The official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing fell to 50.1 in April from March’s reading of 50.5, which was the first expansion in four months, data from the ...Read More

GDP, Retail sales, Oil prices

Headline number looks strong, but details show weakness, particularly personal consumption expenditures which continue to decelerate: Highlights The consumer isn’t on fire but still contributed to a very solid 3.2 percent growth rate for first-quarter GDP. Net exports are the driving force of the headline rate, still deeply negative at minus $899.3 ...Read More