Author Archive

Employment, births, mtg purchase apps

Before Covid, employment growth had already been decelerating due to the tariffs, which continue under President Biden: Births keep falling, and this is not population adjusted: Looks like real estate activity is settling in at pre crisis muddle through levels: ...Read More

Personal consumption, consumer sentiment

Goods are a much smaller component than services: Improving: ...Read More

Mtg apps, China, GDP, continuing unemployment claims, personal income

Doesn’t look like much of a housing boom here: China had been expanding: GDP is rising but still has a long way to go: ...Read More

Personal income and spending, Architecture billings, Congressional Resolution

With consumption as weak as it is, the latest fiscal adjustment probably won’t put much upward pressure on prices: ...Read More

Mtg apps, durable goods orders, vehicle miles

Muddling through: ...Read More

Consumer sentiment, retail sales, industrial production, homebuilder sentiment

Some improvement but remains weak: Looks ok to me: Not looking good: Not looking good: ...Read More

Housing starts and permits, mortgage purchase apps, LA port traffic

A setback to levels of the 1950’s when there were half as many people: Imports up, exports down: ...Read More

Employment, imports, consumer borrowing

Employment increased more than expected last month but still looking anemic overall: Returning to normal, good for the global economy: ...Read More

Jobless claims, ADP payrolls, ISM services, Vehicle sales

Employment growth has stalled: Not looking good: Also fading: ...Read More

Durable goods, pending home sales, personal income and spending, consumer credit

Back to 2018 levels with lots lost during the dip: Still drifting lower: Another round of Federal checks hit last month: The economy is generating less personal income than pre covid and fading: Some of the increased income was saved: Some was spent, but consumption has still not fully recovered: Consumer borrowing ...Read More