Author Archive

CPI, Restaurants and airlines, optimism index

Gone flat since oil prices broke, and means that the strong nominal personal income growth becomes strong real income growth: Still negative but making a comeback even with the rate hikes: ...Read More

Unemployment claims, PMI services, mtg applications and lending

No sign of recession, and lots of indications the rate hikes that are adding to deficit spending as supporting the economy and prices, and not depressing them, and more rate hikes will only do more of same. And it doesn’t end until the Fed understands it has had it all backwards: This ...Read More

Employment, durable goods orders

No recession here either: Asymptotically approaching pre-Covid levels: Wage growth continues to lag (not cause) the growth rate of the CPI: Government had more employees under President Trump vs Presidents Obama and Biden? ;) This doesn’t look like a recession either: ...Read More

JOLTS, ISM manufacturing, fed funds rate

No recession yet, at least partially due to the increased federal deficit spending on interest payments as the Fed hikes rates: With debt/GDP the rate hikes have had the effect of about $500 billion/year of additional (highly regressive) federal deficit spending: ...Read More

Car sales, Dallas Fed, Gasoline supplied

Maybe stabilizing? Post-Covid bounce followed by a dip from the post-Covid cuts in fiscal spending, but no recession yet: A bit of a slowdown but no recession here yet: ...Read More

GDP, Jobless claims, personal income and consumption

No recession yet: Income and consumption not yet indicating recession: ...Read More

Chicago Fed, new home sales, manufacturing

Back to slow growth: At least so far, the post-Covid spike has been nearly reversed. We’ll see where it goes from here: Post-Covid bounce reversed, still above 50 which signals modest growth: ...Read More

Retail sales, existing home sales, Philly Fed, Jobless claims

Sluggish growth but not recession, and no one giving credit to the Fed for hiking rates to increase the deficit and help keep it to a soft landing ;) At least so far it looks to me like a large Covid dip followed by a larger post-Covid bounce followed by a correction ...Read More

Housing starts, industrial production, NY Times quote

Permits and starts have fallen off but are still above pre-Covid levels. This particular sector is presumed to be the target of Fed rate hikes. I suspect it is a temporary setback with buyers taking a wait and see attitude, as employment continues to grow: The post-Covid bounce continues with no sign ...Read More

Mortgage purchase apps, consumer sentiment, bank loans, Fed Atlanta GDP nowcast

Down from the post-Covid bounce but not in any kind of collapse: More evidence we had a soft landing, cushioned by the rate hikes that supported personal income. And no sign the rate hikes have slowed lending. If anything looks like they support it: Back to pre-Covid levels of GDP growth: ...Read More