Author Archive
Mtg apps, Current account, Existing home sales, Wage growth, Equity valuations
Economic Releases
Jun 20, 2018
Purchase applications remain negative this year vs last: Highlights The June 15 week was an active one for mortgage bankers as the purchase index rose a solid 4.0 percent and the refinance index 6.0 percent. Despite the jump in the purchase index, its year-on-year rate remains in the negative column for a
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Housing starts, Redbook retail sales, Euro current account
Economic Releases
Jun 19, 2018
No houses get built without a permit: Highlights The good news in May’s housing starts report is centered in the present, less so in the outlook. Starts jumped 5.0 percent in the month to a 1.350 million annualized rate that hits the top end of Econoday’s consensus range and that should give
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Housing index, Saudi oil pricing charts
Economic Releases
Jun 18, 2018
A lot less than expected as the housing slump continues: Highlights Acceleration is not the indication from the home builders’ housing market index which, though at a high level, edged back 2 points in June to 68 which is at the bottom end of Econoday’s consensus range. Current sales at 75, future
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Industrial production, China retail sales, Miles driven, Federal interest payments, Budget charts
Economic Releases
Jun 15, 2018
A weaker than expected print due to auto sales which have been volatile, but charts show it’s still chugging along at a modest pace: Highlights A big drop in autos skewed industrial production lower in May, slipping 0.1 percent and missing what was an already soft consensus by 2 tenths. Manufacturing volumes
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Jobless claims, Retail sales, Bank lending, Fed comments
Economic Releases
Jun 14, 2018
Just a reminder (from 2015) as to why claims are this low: This is not population adjusted: We haven’t yet to recover from the last recession, in my opinion due to an ongoing lack of demand: Highlights The FOMC said yesterday that household spending has picked up and indeed it has. Retail
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Trade, Consumer credit
Economic Releases
Jun 08, 2018
The trade deficit narrowed but due to a drop in consumer spending on imported cell phones, which doesn’t bode well for retail sales, which are under pressure from the reduced growth of real disposable personal income. And the widening trade gap with the euro area is fundamentally euro friendly even as fears
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Debt securities and loans, Vehicle sales, Manufacturers orders
Economic Releases
Jun 05, 2018
Another indication of low aggregate demand this cycle: Continuing to weaken: Recovering from the dip but still has a ways to go: This component had previously leveled off at about today’s level: Actual shipments recovering but still not looking so good: Inventories correcting but remain elevated:
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Employment, Construction spending
Economic Releases
Jun 01, 2018
Above expectations and indicative of continuous modest growth. However, I have trouble making it all ‘add up’. More comments below: Highlights Employment growth is strong and it is not entirely without wage pressure. Nonfarm payrolls rose 223,000 in May to just top Econoday’s high estimate while the unemployment rate moves down a
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Personal income and outlays, Corporate profits, Trade, Bank lending, Corporate debt
Economic Releases
Jun 01, 2018
Spending was up, but unfortunately due to higher gas prices, which were paid for by further dipping into savings that were already far too low. So looks to me like q2 is off to a very uncertain start after a weak q1: Highlights Income isn’t quite as soft and spending isn’t quite
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Existing home sales, Durable goods, China debt, State index
Uncategorized
May 26, 2018
More weakness: Highlights Yesterday’s new home sales report showed less strength than expected while today’s existing home sales results are outright disappointing. Sales fell 2.5 percent in April to an annualized rate of 5.460 million which falls below Econoday’s low estimate. The decline in sales came despite a sizable increase in supply
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