Author Archive

Unemployment claims, Personal income, Transfer payments, Savings, Consumption, Light vehicle sales, Consumer confidence

Still climbing. This is not good: This is bad too: Working it’s way lower as benefits expire and employment growth sags: Savings added by fiscal adjustments are running down: The economy has generated a lot less personal income than it would have generated without the covid crisis: Same with consumption, which is ...Read More

Euro zone services, gasoline demand, restaurants, hotels

Bad relapse after inadequate fiscal adjustments: ...Read More

Jobless claims, Existing home sales, Euro construction

Still extremely high and now going higher: The large dip in sales was followed by a recovery, so the total sales over that time are about on track: Back into contraction: ...Read More

Architecture billings, Housing starts, Real estate loans

Still in contraction: One unit starts are up but not enough to make up for the dip yet: And housing remains historically depressed, and more so when factoring in population growth: And lending growth has turned negative: ...Read More

Retail sales, Industrial production

The lost sales are water under the bridge as current sales growth has declined and leveled off as federal support for lost personal income fades: Same pattern here- big dip, but only a partial recovery before leveling off: ...Read More

Consumer sentiment, restaurants, Oil consumption, Covid

An already weak economy seems to be turning south: Deaths lag new cases by several weeks= they are going a lot higher: ...Read More

Unemployment claims, Mtg purchase apps

Still over 700,000 new claims this long after the collapse: Still hasn’t recovered from the 2008 collapse: ...Read More

Employment, ADP, vehicle sales

Still down over 10 million jobs vs pre covid: The Cares Act expenditures are winding down… Private payroll recovery leveling off: Same pattern. Collapse, partial recovery, then sideways to down: ...Read More

Personal income and consumption

Personal income, which includes gov transfer payments, is coming down in steps after spiking for the fiscal adjustments, and still remains a bit higher than it would have been as transfer payments wind down: Transfer payments are coming down, but remain elevated largely due to unemployment: Excluding transfer payments it’s still well ...Read More

GDP, jobless claims, pending home sales

Partial recovery but recent data shows growth stalling while a large gap (unemployment) persists as tariffs, covid, and no additional fiscal support continue: The gap initially closed relatively quickly, but progress has slowed: ...Read More