JOLTS, IBD survey, Trump comments

I read this as weakening demand and employers unwilling to pay up to hire, and maybe even posting openings to replace existing workers at lower wages:


Job openings held steady at a very abundant 6.082 million in August while hirings remained far behind, at 5.430 million. In an early indication of full employment, the gap between openings and hiring first opened up about 2-1/2 years ago signaling that employers are either not willing to offer high enough pay to fill empty positions and/or are having a hard time finding people with the right skills. At 652,000, the current spread between openings and hirings is one of the very widest on record.

For comparison, the number of job seekers who are out actively pounding the pavement is 6.911 million which is very near the total number of available openings. Today’s results offer further evidence that the economy is at full employment and will likely add urgency for further Federal Reserve rate hikes.

Hires have gone flat and on a per capita basis are far lower than the prior cycle:

More evidence Trumped up expectations are fading:

United States IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index

The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index in the United States fell 5.8 percent from the previous month to 50.3 in October 2017, below market expectations of 54.2. The gauge of the six-month economic outlook declined 4.7 percent to 48.7; and the personal financial outlook index dropped 4 percent to 59.5. Also, the measure of confidence in federal economic policies decreased 9.1 percent to 42.8.

President Donald Trump suggested he’s smarter than Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, saying in an interview published Tuesday that if Tillerson did call him a moron, as reported, the two should ‘‘compare IQ tests.’’

“And I can tell you who is going to win,” Trump said to Forbes magazine.

Trump reportedly wanted nearly 10 times more nuclear weapons

  • President Donald Trump discussed increasing the number of U.S. nuclear weapons by nearly 10 times at a July meeting with top national security officials, according to NBC News.
  • After the meeting, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was heard calling Trump a “moron,” NBC reported.