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MOSLER'S LAW: There is no financial crisis so deep that a sufficiently large tax cut or spending increase cannot deal with it.

Spanish Voters Set to Throw Out Socialists in Election

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on November 20th, 2011

As previously discussed, there is virtually no political support to leave the euro,
as it’s not intuitively obvious the euro is the problem.

It is intuitively obvious, however, that the problem was irresponsible govt
and so the move towards responsible govt- aka austerity- continues.

The euro economy can be easily ‘fixed’ and in short order.
The ECB can, one way or another, facilitate all funding needs and end the solvency issue.
And the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) can be modified to allow deficits sufficient to sustain aggregate demand.

Currently Germany continues to be obstructing the elimination of the solvency issue,
even as market forces are now begining to weaken German bonds.
And there are no member nations yet supporting readjusting the SGP to allow higher deficits.

So my best guess is Germany will soon recognize what most of the financial community has recently been voicing- ECB bond buying combined with austerity is not inflationary- opening the door to the ECB bond buying being an EU sanctioned policy of the institutional structure to ensure solvency.

That will trigger a massive ‘relief rally’ that will fade as the reality of the depressing nature of the
austerity takes over.

It could also sideline the discussion of Greek haircuts and default discussion in general.

Spanish Voters Set to Throw Out Socialists in Election

November 20 (Reuters) — Spaniards are expected to throw out the Socialists they blame for a disastrous economic situation in an election on Sunday and to vote in a center-right party likely to dole out more bitter medicine in the form of public spending cuts.

Opinion polls show the People’s Party (PP), led by Mariano Rajoy, has an unassailable lead over the ruling Socialists, who have led the country from boom to bust in seven years in power.

Voters are angry with the Socialists for failing to act swiftly to prevent the economic slide and then for bringing in austerity measures that have cut wages, benefits and jobs.

Yet people are now resigned to further slashes in spending on health and education in the midst of a European debt crisis that has toppled the governments of Ireland, Portugal, Greece and Italy and pushed Spain’s borrowing costs ever higher.

5 Responses to “Spanish Voters Set to Throw Out Socialists in Election”

  1. Hugo Heden Says:

    > “And the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) can be modified to allow deficits sufficient to sustain aggregate demand.”

    Hm.. One way to sustain aggregate demand would be to let ECB finance a universal Job Guarantee program for the Eurozone (as you’ve proposed before).

    Is that what you have in mind here? (Would that require a change in SGP?)

    Reply

    WARREN MOSLER Reply:

    yes, even better!

    would require some kind of change, not sure just what.

    Reply

  2. Adam (ak) Says:

    So in the country where the official unemployment rate is 22.6% the party promising further fiscal austerity has an unassailable lead? Awesome. The turkeys have voted for Thanksgiving.

    Reply

    WARREN MOSLER Reply:

    good line! Using it now with attribution!

    Reply

  3. Tom Hickey Says:

    I think you may be overly sanguine about Germany, Warren. I think it is more likely that the EZ now faces a dilemma:

    If the ECB steps up, then Germany is out due to fear of hyperinflation, and if the ECB doesn’t step up, the euro experiment is over, as fear of haircuts leads to capital flight.

    Germany seems to have made it clear that the only way forward is toward a unified Europe with Germany in charge and calling the shots. I don’t see that flying very well with a whole lot of Europeans, many who have vivid memories.

    Reply

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