risk off Friday

Looks like a big ‘risk off’ day coming up.

The authorities are embodying uncertainty at a time when it’s ‘their move’

Where things go is not about market forces, but about what politicians and their appointees do next.

The competence of the G20 is looking much like that of the FOMC, and it’s not a pretty sight.

We can do nothing but ‘wait and see.’

For example, will they or won’t the fund the euro members?
The mixed message is both no, and they will do what it takes to ensure solvency.
And taxpayers don’t want to pay for it, whatever that means.

And the same time the US authorities are being exposed as, to be kind, being on the sidelines.

President Obama has both nothing of substance to add to the debate, either in the euro zone or domestically.

The Fed itself said QE does nothing but modestly lower rates (Bernanke speech, Carpenter paper) which hopefully boosts asset prices which hopefully adds to aggregate demand. Hasn’t worked in Japan, (even with the net exports we also aspire to) but hopefully here. And skeptical markets that fear the Fed is engaged in ‘irresponsible money printing’ are coming around to the reality.

The sustainability commission has reported and recommended ways to reduce the deficit and ensure unemployment rises and our standard of living falls.

The theme continues- by fearing we are the next Greece, we are turning ourselves into the next Japan. Including burdening ourselves with an export driven economy.

So on an otherwise quiet post holiday Friday I look for a risk off rush to the sidelines, and a continuation of illiquidity in general.