Sector Analysis Update

Looks like the deficits got high enough in the US and Euro zone to reverse things, and I’d guess UK and Japan as well even though the charts don’t yet show the reversal because past deficits of this magnitude would have been more than sufficient and there recent data is showing signs of a turn.

This is all usually indicative of a multi year upturn, who magnitude depends on the extent private credit expansion kicks in.
In the past the ‘borrow to spend’ private credit expansions have been helped by a variety of ‘peculiar’ events, including the credit expansion due to sub prime and other housing frauds most recently, the dot com era’s borrowing to fund impossible business plans, the credit expansion driven by the S and L frauds in the 80’s, emerging market credit expansion before that, etc. etc.

This time might be different/less robust if credit expansion channels are kept honest and fiscal policy tightened.