> (email exchange)
> On Wed, Apr 28, 2010 at 8:23 AM, wrote:
> Given this view warren, do you think Natl Bk of Greece goes to zero here?
> Or do you think Europe will do a “shock an awe” 100b package that makes
> greek banks a buying opportunity?
Wish I knew!
They might like to, but they still don’t have an answer to the moral hazard issue or popular support for a ‘bailout’
What’ they’d like to do is figure out a way to isolate Greece, hence the presumed proposals from yesterday, but those aren’t satisfying either.
And any major package weakens the others who have to fund it in the market place.
Nor do they have a way to enforce their austerity demands and keep them from being reversed once it’s known they’ve taken the position that it’s too risky to let any one nation fail.
They are still in a bind, and their austerity measures mean they don’t keep up with a world recovery
Also, a Greek restructure that reduces outstanding debt is a force that strengthens the euro as it reduces outstanding euro financial assets.
The negative is that it further reduces euro ‘savings desires’ and drives more portfolios to shift away from euro.
And domestic taxes are still payable in euro, so there is that fundamental support .
Again, could go either way from here.
Sometimes that’s how it is!