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Karim writes:
- Initial claims -13k to 631k; continuing claims up another 133k (up every week this year) to 6271k
- Suggests another 650-700k drop in payrolls and rise in ue rate from 8.5% to 9% for April employment report
- Those numbers will in turn cause the data we received today on incomes and wages for March, to worsen from already historically weak levels.
- Personal income -0.3% m/m and +0.3% y/y
- Wage and salary component of income -0.5% m/m and -1.2% y/y (prior all-time low was -0.3% y/y)
- Personal spending -0.2%. Q1 profile for real personal spending= +0.9% in Jan, +0.1% in Feb, and -0.2% in Mar. This will create a challenge for the PCE component of GDP for Q2.
- ECI up 0.3% q/q and 2.1% y/y in Q1, both all-time lows
- Chicago PMI for April up from 31.4 to 40.1
- Looks like national ISM should bounce to about 39-40 tomorrow after 36.3
- Fed comments yesterday seem to echo what I heard from ECB/BOE: Recent bounce in PMIs seem unrelated to prospects for recovery in late 2009/early 2010.



Personal Income MoM (Mar)
Survey |
-0.2% |
Actual |
-0.3% |
Prior |
-0.2% |
Revised |
n/a |
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Personal Income YoY (Mar)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
0.3% |
Prior |
1.0% |
Revised |
n/a |
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Personal Income ALLX (Mar)
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Personal Spending (Mar)
Survey |
-0.1% |
Actual |
-0.2% |
Prior |
0.2% |
Revised |
0.4% |
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PCE Deflator YoY (Mar)
Survey |
0.7% |
Actual |
0.6% |
Prior |
1.0% |
Revised |
0.9% |
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PCE Core MoM (Mar)
Survey |
0.1% |
Actual |
0.2% |
Prior |
0.2% |
Revised |
n/a |
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PCE Core YoY (Mar)
Survey |
1.8% |
Actual |
1.8% |
Prior |
1.8% |
Revised |
n/a |
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Employment Cost Index (1Q)
Survey |
0.5% |
Actual |
0.3% |
Prior |
0.5% |
Revised |
0.6% |
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Employment Cost Index ALLX (1Q)
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Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 25)
Survey |
640K |
Actual |
631K |
Prior |
640K |
Revised |
645K |
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Continuing Claims (Apr 18)
Survey |
6200K |
Actual |
6271K |
Prior |
6137K |
Revised |
6138K |
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Jobless Claims ALLX (Apr 25)
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Chicago Purchasing Manager (Apr)
Survey |
35.0 |
Actual |
40.1 |
Prior |
31.4 |
Revised |
n/a |
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NAPM Milwaukee (Apr)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
39.0 |
Prior |
30.0 |
Revised |
n/a |
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