2008-06-27 Daily US Economic Releases

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Personal Income (May)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 1.9%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.3%

Higher than expected as fiscal rebates kick in, and last month revised up some as well.

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Personal Spending (May)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 0.8%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.4%

Also higher than expected with consumers spending a higher % of fiscal rebates than expected.

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PCE Deflator YoY (May)

Survey 3.2%
Actual 3.1%
Prior 3.2%
Revised n/a

A bit lower than expected.

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PCE Core MoM (May)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

Also lower than expected.

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PCE Core YoY (May)

Survey 2.2%
Actual 2.1%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

This is lower than expected as well.

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Karim writes:

  • Core PCE deflator up 0.1% in May, unch at 2.1% y/y.
  • Headline deflator up 0.4% and rises from 3.1% to 3.2%.
  • Personal income up 1.8% due to 25.6% rise in ‘other’ government transfer payments (tax rebates); wage and salary income up 0.3% after -0.1% read prior month
  • Personal spending up 0.4%

Yesterday Kohn mentioned there were only a few signs of higher headline inflation ’embedding’ themselves into core; this report another sign of that.

U of Michigan Confidence (Jun F)

Survey 56.7
Actual 56.4
Prior 56.7
Revised n/a

Karim Writes:

  • Drop from May to June (59.8 to 56.4); 3rd lowest reading in 46yr history of survey.
  • Record low (21%) reported income gains, reflecting job losses and housing and equity wealth declines.
  • Rising food and energy prices also contributed to worst buying climate survey for durables since 1980.
  • Current conditions fell 5.7pts.
  • Expectations component fell 2pts; this now 38% off of Jan 2007 high; survey report stated that 25-35% drop in expectations was typical in advance of Post-WW 2 recessions.
  • 1yr fwd inflation expectations drop from 5.2% to 5.1% in June; 5yr fwd unch at 3.4%.



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