2008-03-28 US Economic Releases

2008-03-28 Personal Income

Personal Income (Feb)

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.5%
Prior 0.3%
Revised n/a

This is what supports the economy longer term and cushions downturns.


2008-03-28 Personal Spending

Personal Spending (Feb)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.4%
Revised n/a

Down some, but with personal income remaining firm spending is sustained over the medium term.


2008-03-28 PCE Deflator YoY

PCE Deflator YoY (Feb)

Survey 3.5%
Actual 3.4%
Prior 3.7%
Revised 3.5%

Not good, and more price increases are in the pipeline.


2008-03-28 PCE Core YoY

PCE Core YoY (Feb)

Survey 2.1%
Actual 2.0%
Prior 2.2%
Revised 2.0%

Back to the high end of the Fed’s comfort zone, but with higher prices in the pipeline, it’s looking to move higher.


2008-03-28 U. of Michigan Confidence

U. of Michigan Confidence (Mar F)

Survey 70.0
Actual 69.5
Prior 70.5
Revised n/a

2008-03-28 U. of Michigan Confidence TABLE

U. of Michigan Confidence TABLE

2008-03-28 Inflation Expectations

Inflation Expectations

Current conditions up, expectations down. Sound familiar?

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2 Responses to 2008-03-28 US Economic Releases

  1. Warren you had dinner with Mr. Rogers before, is he now the dumb money?

    NO, HE’S A PRETTY GOOD TRADER AND GOOD CHART READER.

    Suppose Mr. Rogers over in Asia (where I hear he now lives) does some trading/brokering/warehousing/buying/selling with some guys over in latin america regarding corn, how does the CFTC affect that?

    WOULDN’T BE PART OF THAT TRADE IF THAT’S THE WAY IT HAPPENED. BUT HE’S PROBABLY JUST CALL HIS BROTHER AND BUY/SELL ON CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE, OR SOME ASIAN EXCHANGE.

    Just a few weeks ago the USA was considered the financial center of the universe, but that perception seems to have changed quickly.

    MAYBE. WHY SHOULD ANYONE CARE? IT’S JUST ABOUT A SERVER.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/70389-get-out-of-commodities-barron-s?source=feed

    The CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), due to the relatively limited capacity of commodity markets and the ease with which they can be moved, puts limits on the sizes of speculators positions.

    YES, ON REGULATED EXCHANGES.

    However, commodity ETFs, pools and mutual funds sidestep this limitation through complex deals that have them buying and selling off-market through a conduit called the International Swaps and Derivatives Association [ISDA].

    YES AND NO, BUT TRUE THAT MAYBE MOST TRADES AREN’T SUBJECT TO CFTC REGULATIONS FOR VARIOUS REASONS.

    The CFTC is aware of the situation, and is gathering on Apr. 22 “to hear firsthand from participants to ensure that the exchanges are functioning properly.” An idea of just how deep-rooted the problem is: ETFs, mutual funds and commodity pools seem to account for a full 60% of all bullish commodity positions.

    RIGHT. AND READ ‘ENTER THE DRAGON’ ON MY http://www.mosler.org WEBSITE.

    Commodity bull Jim Rogers notes that there are about 70,000 mutual funds in the world, and only about 50 that invest in commodities. He thinks the speculative bubble has a few years to go. But looking at the ‘smart money’ — farmers and others who actually trade in and use the physical commodities — tells a different story. Net commercial shorts are 30% higher than a previous record.

    OK

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/28/business/28norris.html?ex=1207454400&en=015d6a4a1263a020&ei=5070&emc=eta1

    That area is finance. Only months ago, American financial institutions were pre-eminent in the world economy. We were the country that invented all the new financial products and that made lots of money from them. It was our investment banks that were called upon to advise companies and governments in other countries, and then to arrange the financing they needed.

    OK

    Now that reputation lies in tatters. Our big banks have been forced to turn to places like China and Abu Dhabi for capital as losses have mounted. But no similar angel turned up for Bear Stearns, and the Federal Reserve Board had to step in to avert disaster

    RIGHT. AND LITTLE IF ANYTHING HAS YET TO TOUGH THE ‘REAL ECONOMY’ WHICH KEEPS CHUGGING ALONG SEEMS, APART FROM SCARING CONSUMERS INTO NOT BUYING AS MUCH FOR A FEW MONTHS.

    Reply

  2. hoover printing presses says:

    Warren you had dinner with Mr. Rogers before, is he now the dumb money? Suppose Mr. Rogers over in Asia (where I hear he now lives) does some trading/brokering/warehousing/buying/selling with some guys over in latin america regarding corn, how does the CFTC affect that? Just a few weeks ago the USA was considered the financial center of the universe, but that perception seems to have changed quickly.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/70389-get-out-of-commodities-barron-s?source=feed

    The CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), due to the relatively limited capacity of commodity markets and the ease with which they can be moved, puts limits on the sizes of speculators positions. However, commodity ETFs, pools and mutual funds sidestep this limitation through complex deals that have them buying and selling off-market through a conduit called the International Swaps and Derivatives Association [ISDA]. The CFTC is aware of the situation, and is gathering on Apr. 22 “to hear firsthand from participants to ensure that the exchanges are functioning properly.” An idea of just how deep-rooted the problem is: ETFs, mutual funds and commodity pools seem to account for a full 60% of all bullish commodity positions.

    Commodity bull Jim Rogers notes that there are about 70,000 mutual funds in the world, and only about 50 that invest in commodities. He thinks the speculative bubble has a few years to go. But looking at the ’smart money’ — farmers and others who actually trade in and use the physical commodities — tells a different story. Net commercial shorts are 30% higher than a previous record.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/28/business/28norris.html?ex=1207454400&en=015d6a4a1263a020&ei=5070&emc=eta1

    That area is finance. Only months ago, American financial institutions were pre-eminent in the world economy. We were the country that invented all the new financial products and that made lots of money from them. It was our investment banks that were called upon to advise companies and governments in other countries, and then to arrange the financing they needed.

    Now that reputation lies in tatters. Our big banks have been forced to turn to places like China and Abu Dhabi for capital as losses have mounted. But no similar angel turned up for Bear Stearns, and the Federal Reserve Board had to step in to avert disaster

    Reply

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