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I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here. ...Read More

Saudi pricing and output

No clear signal for what might come next with regard to the price of oil: Saudis set prices (above) and then let their clients buy all they want at the posted prices. The chart shows clients have been buying a bit more lately, but not anywhere near the Saudis currently presumed daily ...Read More

JOLTS, Consumer Credit, Soft Bank

Looks a lot like the top looked back in 2007? Declining growth of consumer credit means credit driven spending isn’t adding as much to GDP this year as it did last year: Highlights Consumer credit keeps expanding including moderate and consistent gains for credit cards. Consumer credit outstanding rose $16.0 billion in ...Read More

Trade, Factory orders, Redbook retail sales, Saudi pricing, Comments on Trump tactics

Trade deficit moving back out. I expect a lot more to come this quarter and next. Oil is getting more expensive and the quantity imported is up as well. The ‘one time’ soybean export bulge is behind us, and global trade in general has slowed. Wouldn’t surprise me if Trump responds by ...Read More

Wire article, Trump news, Italy

What Does Modern Money Theory Tell us About Demonetisation? Dec 5 (The Wire) — Warren Mosler, a founder of MMT, explains the idea of “taxes drive money” using a simple example. He pulls out his visiting card in a classroom and … Continuous flow of this stuff: Donald Trump insults China with ...Read More

PMI services, ISM services, Bank loans, Fed labor market conditions index

Post election surveys may prove to be a bit ‘trumped up’, just saying… Highlights In another sign of strength for the economy, the ISM non-manufacturing index jumped 2.4 points in November to a 57.2 reading that tops Econoday’s high-end forecast. Employment for ISM’s sample, where growth was soft in October, shot more ...Read More

GDP, Rents, Saudis

This line shows total GDP growth over the prior 10 years. It makes the point as to just how sudden the latest drop off was and how severe it continues to be. It’s just screaming ‘lack of aggregate demand’ begging a fiscal relaxation of maybe 5% of GDP annually for a while. ...Read More

Payrolls, Vehicle sales, Carrier

Year over year growth continues to decelerate, and wage growth remains critically low. And participation rates further evidence a massive shortage of aggregate demand, and it’s all only getting worse: Highlights Payroll growth is solid and the unemployment rate is down sharply, but not all the indications from the November report employment ...Read More

Chain store sales, PMI and ISM surveys, Construction spending, Auto sales, Delinquencies

Highlights Chain stores are reporting mixed to lower year-on-year rates of November sales compared to October. Today’s results do not hint at another month of strength for the government’s ex-auto ex-gas retail sales reading which posted very strong monthly gains of 0.6 percent and 0.5 percent in October and September. Manufacturing muddling ...Read More

Mortgage applications, Pending home sales, ADP payrolls, Personal income and spending, Chicago PMI

So mortgage applications for purchases rose during the first half of the year, then reversed and are looking to be at best flat vs the year before come year end: Highlights Purchase applications for home mortgages fell just 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in the November 25 week following the ...Read More

GDP, Consumer confidence, Redbook retail sales, Headlines

Revised up a bit as expected, pretty much all from revising up consumer spending. And it’s still a soybean export and inventory building story: Highlights The third quarter has gotten a meaningful upgrade. The second estimate is 3 tenths higher than the first, at a plus 3.2 percent annualized rate and which ...Read More