PMC Donation Information
Uncategorized
Aug 14, 2014
I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here.
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Durable goods orders, Trucking tonnage index
Uncategorized
Sep 28, 2016
Continues in contraction year over year, and revisions likely to cause further downward GDP revisions: Highlights The headline, at a monthly zero percent, is flat and so are the indications from the bulk of the August durable goods report. Excluding transportation, orders slipped 0.4 percent. This reading excludes a 22 percent downswing
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State tax receipts, Redbook retail sales, Case-Shiller house prices, PMI services, Richmond Fed manufacturing, consumer confidence
Uncategorized
Sep 27, 2016
This too has followed the shale boom/bust cycle and is headed lower: No recovery here: This looks back over the last three months and seems to be decelerating from already modest levels: Up a bit but still low: The flash Markit US Services PMI came in at 51.9 in September of 2016
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New home sales, Dallas Fed
Uncategorized
Sep 26, 2016
Settling back down. Without permit growth this isn’t going anywhere; Highlights New home sales may have fallen back by a monthly 7.6 percent in August, but the 609,000 annualized rate is still above Econoday’s consensus for 598,000. And a major plus in the report is a surprise 5,000 upward revision to July
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Rail traffic, Philly Fed state index, NY Fed nowcast
Uncategorized
Sep 25, 2016
Rail Week Ending 17 September 2016: Data Looks Better This Week Week 37 of 2016 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) contracted according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. However, the data was an improvement over last week. Not looking so good: This
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Eurozone Composite PMI, US Manufacturing PMI
Uncategorized
Sep 23, 2016
Also down and a bit lower than expected: United States Manufacturing PMI The flash Markit manufacturing PMI for the United States declined to 51.4 in September of 2016 from 52 in August and below market expectations of 51.9. New business growth eased further, output slowed and export orders fell for the first
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KC Fed, Recent presentation
Uncategorized
Sep 23, 2016
Better, apart from employment and prices, which happen to be the Fed’s mandate. So interesting that the KC Fed President wants to hike rates: Highlights Just about every month the Kansas City manufacturing index is in the negative column, but not in September which comes in at plus 6 for the second
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Fed comments, Chicago Fed, Existing home sales
Uncategorized
Sep 22, 2016
So growth and employment prospects are lower than those of their prior meeting, when they didn’t raise rates. And their forecasts continue to decelerate: Fed Trims Interest-Rate, Growth Forecasts By Michael S. Derby Sept 21 (WSJ) — Federal Reserve officials cut their growth forecast for this year to 1.8%, from 2.0% in
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Mtg purchase applications, Architectural billings index
Uncategorized
Sep 21, 2016
So much for last week’s glimmer of hope: Back down to recession levels:
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Housing market index, Redbook retail sales, Housing starts
Uncategorized
Sep 20, 2016
Up a bit, but until permits increase not much chance of home building increasing: Been going from bad to worse: Highlights Redbook’s sample is not pointing to any September improvement for core retail sales. Year-on-year same-store sales rose only 0.2 percent in the September 17 week, about in line with August and
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Credit check
Uncategorized
Sep 18, 2016
A very small move up but the deceleration trend is intact: This has been moving lower as well for a while now: As always, and by identity, if anyone spent less than his income, another must have spent more than his income, or the output would not have been sold. So when
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