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Mtg apps, Current account, Existing home sales, Wage growth, Equity valuations

Purchase applications remain negative this year vs last: Highlights The June 15 week was an active one for mortgage bankers as the purchase index rose a solid 4.0 percent and the refinance index 6.0 percent. Despite the jump in the purchase index, its year-on-year rate remains in the negative column for a ...Read More

Housing starts, Redbook retail sales, Euro current account

No houses get built without a permit: Highlights The good news in May’s housing starts report is centered in the present, less so in the outlook. Starts jumped 5.0 percent in the month to a 1.350 million annualized rate that hits the top end of Econoday’s consensus range and that should give ...Read More

Housing index, Saudi oil pricing charts

A lot less than expected as the housing slump continues: Highlights Acceleration is not the indication from the home builders’ housing market index which, though at a high level, edged back 2 points in June to 68 which is at the bottom end of Econoday’s consensus range. Current sales at 75, future ...Read More

Industrial production, China retail sales, Miles driven, Federal interest payments, Budget charts

A weaker than expected print due to auto sales which have been volatile, but charts show it’s still chugging along at a modest pace: Highlights A big drop in autos skewed industrial production lower in May, slipping 0.1 percent and missing what was an already soft consensus by 2 tenths. Manufacturing volumes ...Read More

Jobless claims, Retail sales, Bank lending, Fed comments

Just a reminder (from 2015) as to why claims are this low: This is not population adjusted: We haven’t yet to recover from the last recession, in my opinion due to an ongoing lack of demand: Highlights The FOMC said yesterday that household spending has picked up and indeed it has. Retail ...Read More

Trade, Consumer credit

The trade deficit narrowed but due to a drop in consumer spending on imported cell phones, which doesn’t bode well for retail sales, which are under pressure from the reduced growth of real disposable personal income. And the widening trade gap with the euro area is fundamentally euro friendly even as fears ...Read More

Debt securities and loans, Vehicle sales, Manufacturers orders

Another indication of low aggregate demand this cycle: Continuing to weaken: Recovering from the dip but still has a ways to go: This component had previously leveled off at about today’s level: Actual shipments recovering but still not looking so good: Inventories correcting but remain elevated: ...Read More

Employment, Construction spending

Above expectations and indicative of continuous modest growth. However, I have trouble making it all ‘add up’. More comments below: Highlights Employment growth is strong and it is not entirely without wage pressure. Nonfarm payrolls rose 223,000 in May to just top Econoday’s high estimate while the unemployment rate moves down a ...Read More

Personal income and outlays, Corporate profits, Trade, Bank lending, Corporate debt

Spending was up, but unfortunately due to higher gas prices, which were paid for by further dipping into savings that were already far too low. So looks to me like q2 is off to a very uncertain start after a weak q1: Highlights Income isn’t quite as soft and spending isn’t quite ...Read More

Existing home sales, Durable goods, China debt, State index

More weakness: Highlights Yesterday’s new home sales report showed less strength than expected while today’s existing home sales results are outright disappointing. Sales fell 2.5 percent in April to an annualized rate of 5.460 million which falls below Econoday’s low estimate. The decline in sales came despite a sizable increase in supply ...Read More