PMC Donation Information
Uncategorized
Aug 14, 2014
I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here.
...Read More
Credit check, Euro area current account
Uncategorized
May 20, 2017
Going from bad to worse, so the way things are going seems the contribution to year over year GDP growth in q2 from credit expansion will be less than it was in q1: Never yet seen a current account surplus like this and a weak currency? (Euro area surplus = rest of
...Read More
Mortgage apps, Headlines
Uncategorized
May 17, 2017
New applications seem to be modestly increasing even as bank lending for real estate has been flat and decelerating: Hard to say which is worse for markets- if Trump remains as President or if he is removed:
...Read More
Housing starts, Industrial production, Fed wage tracker
Uncategorized
May 16, 2017
No surprise here, after seeing what mortgage lending has been doing: Highlights A topping out from lower-than-indicated expansion highs is the news from the April housing starts report where levels, though still healthy, are disappointing. Starts fell 2.6 percent to a 1.172 million annualized rate that is well below Econoday’s low estimate
...Read More
NY state mfg survey, Housing index, Lending, White House headline
Uncategorized
May 15, 2017
Trumped up expectations reversing? Highlights Activity in the New York manufacturing region is flattening out this month following a run of unusually strong growth. May’s Empire State index came in at a lower-than-expected minus 1.0 with new orders also moving into the negative column to minus 4.4. Unfilled orders, which were very
...Read More
Retail sales, Business inventories and sales, Inflation
Uncategorized
May 12, 2017
A bit weaker than expected, prior month revisions about a wash. Highlights Retail sales did recover in April but not as much as expected, up 0.4 percent overall and up 0.3 percent excluding autos which both miss Econoday’s consensus estimates by 2 tenths. Core readings are likewise soft, up 0.3 percent ex-auto
...Read More
Energy capex, LA port activity, Fed portfolio
Uncategorized
May 11, 2017
Energy capex collapsed first, followed by non energy capex about a year later. Question now is whether the Q1 non energy capex recovery continues into Q2. I suspect not. In any case the contribution to growth from energy capex is no longer negative but not all that much as a % of
...Read More
Reserve allocation, Pump priming, GDP forecasts
Uncategorized
May 11, 2017
You can see how central bank reserve shifting worked to lower the euro vs the dollar. Yes, we need a larger deficit, both short and long term, given current institutional structure that gives powerful incentives to not spend income. Not that the current proposals to do that are my first choice as
...Read More
NFIB index, Redbook retail sales, Jolts, Wholesale trade, MMT Article, NY Fed Consumer expectations
Uncategorized
May 09, 2017
Trumped up expectations fading only slowly, as confirmed by stocks, etc: A glimmer of hope seems to have faded: Highlights There’s plenty of help-wanted signs but still too few qualified applicants. Job openings in March totaled 5.743 million, up from a revised 5.682 million in February and well ahead of hirings which
...Read More
Credit check
Uncategorized
May 06, 2017
Not a pretty sight:
...Read More
Employment, NY Fed q2 GDP forecast, Consumer credit
Uncategorized
May 05, 2017
Highlights The labor train is back on the tracks as nonfarm payrolls reversed the prior month’s weakness and came in on the high side of expectations, up 211,000 in April vs a revised 79,000 in March for the third 200,000 plus reading so far this year. Payroll gains are centered in business
...Read More