PMC Donation Information

I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here. ...Read More

Employment, births, mtg purchase apps

Before Covid, employment growth had already been decelerating due to the tariffs, which continue under President Biden: Births keep falling, and this is not population adjusted: Looks like real estate activity is settling in at pre crisis muddle through levels: ...Read More

Personal consumption, consumer sentiment

Goods are a much smaller component than services: Improving: ...Read More

Mtg apps, China, GDP, continuing unemployment claims, personal income

Doesn’t look like much of a housing boom here: China had been expanding: GDP is rising but still has a long way to go: ...Read More

Personal income and spending, Architecture billings, Congressional Resolution

With consumption as weak as it is, the latest fiscal adjustment probably won’t put much upward pressure on prices: ...Read More

Mtg apps, durable goods orders, vehicle miles

Muddling through: ...Read More

Consumer sentiment, retail sales, industrial production, homebuilder sentiment

Some improvement but remains weak: Looks ok to me: Not looking good: Not looking good: ...Read More

Housing starts and permits, mortgage purchase apps, LA port traffic

A setback to levels of the 1950’s when there were half as many people: Imports up, exports down: ...Read More

Employment, imports, consumer borrowing

Employment increased more than expected last month but still looking anemic overall: Returning to normal, good for the global economy: ...Read More

Jobless claims, ADP payrolls, ISM services, Vehicle sales

Employment growth has stalled: Not looking good: Also fading: ...Read More

Durable goods, pending home sales, personal income and spending, consumer credit

Back to 2018 levels with lots lost during the dip: Still drifting lower: Another round of Federal checks hit last month: The economy is generating less personal income than pre covid and fading: Some of the increased income was saved: Some was spent, but consumption has still not fully recovered: Consumer borrowing ...Read More