PMC Donation Information

I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here. ...Read More

Employment, Bank loans, Output gap chart, Foreign $ bonds

Looks like it’s turned up a bit with the tax cuts? Looks like this source of private sector deficit spending has gone flat again: Looks to me a lot more like a deficiency of demand than a demographic shift: This is a source of $US deficit spending that ‘offsets’ unspent incomes: China ...Read More

Car sales, Redbook retail sales, Mtg apps, ISM and Markit services index

A bit stronger than expected, but still trending lower, particularly adjusted for population: Highlights Unit sales of motor vehicle proved very strong in September, rising sharply to a 17.4 million annualized rate from 16.6 million in August. This points to a sharp rise in dollar sales of motor vehicles for the September ...Read More

Lots of evidence of slowing; Highlights A marginal headline gain of 0.1 percent in construction spending masks significant declines in residential spending during August. Residential spending fell 0.7 percent in the month to more than offset a 0.2 percent rise in July. Looking at sub-components, single-family spending was also down 0.7 percent ...Read More

Trade, Pending home sales, New home sales, Durable goods, Bank lending, Earnings

Need more tariffs… Highlights Amid the unfolding of tariff effects, exports are moving in the wrong direction and look to be a big negative for third-quarter GDP. The nation’s trade deficit in goods was a whopping $75.8 billion in August with exports down 1.6 percent for a second straight month. Imports are ...Read More

PMI, Existing home sales, Permits, Homebuying index, Fed book, China car sales, Federal budget

Highlights Amid a backdrop of rising inflation pressures, sharp slowing in the services PMI sample pulled down September’s composite flash and masks a strong showing for manufacturing. The PMI composite fell to 53.4 which is well below Econoday’s consensus for 55.1 and also below the low estimate for 53.8. Services fell to ...Read More

Employment, Rental markets

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised down from +248,000 to +208,000, and the change for July was revised down from +157,000 to +147,000. With these revisions, employment gains in June and July combined were 50,000 less than previously reported. Read more at https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/#eVuYdeqRRy7O1pt6.99 Looks like the private ...Read More

Construction spending, Trade

Highlights A solid rise in residential spending offset a mixed showing for non-housing components and made for a 0.1 percent July rise in overall construction spending to barely come within Econoday’s consensus range. Residential spending rose 0.6 percent but July’s gain was entirely centered in home improvements which jumped 2.1 percent to ...Read More

Personal income, Pending home sales, Real house prices

Flattened out at modest levels of growth with no sign that the tax cuts have led to an acceleration: Pending home sales fall for seventh straight month in July Signed contracts to buy existing homes fell 0.7 percent in July compared with June, according to the National Association of Realtors’ pending home ...Read More

Trade, Redbook, Consumer Confidence, Durable goods orders, China, Architecture index, Bank loans

Larger than expected: Highlights In some of the early data coming out in this period of trade disputes, the goods deficit of the July trade report totaled a much deeper-than-expected $72.2 billion. Exports of goods fell 1.7 percent in the month to $140.0 billion showing a very steep 6.7 percent month-to-month decline ...Read More

New home sales, Existing home sales, Sea containers, Wage tracker chart

Heading lower from already depressed levels: Highlights The headline shows a decline but the message from the July new home sales report is nevertheless mostly positive. New home sales slipped 1.7 percent in the month to a 627,000 annualized rate that misses Econoday’s consensus by 22,000 and the Econoday’s low estimate by ...Read More