PMC donation information

I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here. ...Read More

Housing starts, Italy Merchandise Trade, UK opinion chart, ECB euro policy musings

Moving up some but still relatively low, but as previously discussed, this is about people losing jobs, not new hires: Jobless Claims And yet another lower than expected release: Housing Starts Just anecdotal evidence of what happens as the euro is pushed down by CB portfolio selling to ‘equate supply and demand’ ...Read More

mtg purchase apps, NY manuf survey, industrial production, home builders index

Turned south again, unfortunately. Remains seriously depressed. MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights After three straight weeks of impressive gains, the purchase index slipped back 3.0 percent in the April 10 week. Year-on-year, the index is still up a solid 7.0 percent in a reading that points to strength for the spring housing market. ...Read More

Atlanta Fed, Retail Sales, Redbook retail sales, small business optimism index, business inventories

Another string of lower than expected releases And 2nd quarter nowcasts are showing about the same as Q1 no bounce yet. Auto sales have a high import component. Note that reports of domestic wholesale auto output and sales have been lower than expected. And note year over year growth decline, though some ...Read More

Udine presentation

These are the slides of one of my presentations here in Italy. One of the main points is that the deficit limit functions to limit the euro denominated net ‘savings’ of the economy, with the unemployment the evidence that 3% currently falls short of the ‘demand for savings’. (Note that when I ...Read More

Euro update and anecdotal econ news

This gives you a pretty good idea of the magnitude of euro selling by central banks. The question is when are they finished, and perhaps, when foreign exporters again pressure their cb’s to increase holdings to target the euro zone for exports, which is the reason the cb’s originally bought the euro. ...Read More

from Prof. Terzi

Presentation from Professor Andrea Terzi: The Eurozone crisis: A debt shortage as the final cause ...Read More

wholesale trade

Not that it matters but another bad release: Wholesale Trade Highlights Inventories relative to sales in the wholesale sector remained bloated for a 2nd straight month in February, up 0.3 percent vs a decline of 0.2 decline in wholesale sales. The mismatch keeps the stock-to-sales ratio unchanged at 1.29, which is the ...Read More

mtg purchase apps

Purchase apps up nicely again. Seems to be replacing “all cash” buyers. MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights The purchase index had been dead flat all year but is now moving higher and quickly in what is the latest positive sign out of the housing sector. Mortgage applications for home purchases surged for a ...Read More

labor mkt index, ISM services, tax collections, truck sales, lumber

Presumably this means something to the Fed: Labor Market Conditions Index Highlights The Fed’s Board of Governors Research Department’s unofficial report on labor market conditions came in weak for March, dropping to minus 0.3 from plus 2.0 in February. There was no text or detail on the unofficial report but highly likely ...Read More

Balanced budget amendment getting closer, consumer credit, Redbook retail sales, JOLTS

the BIG stupid… Conservative lawmakers weigh bid to call for constitutional convention Consumer Credit Highlights Consumer credit rose a solid looking $15.5 billion in February but a closer look shows an unwanted $3.7 billion decline in revolving credit. This is the 4th decline in 5 months for the revolving component which reflects ...Read More