PMC Donation Information

I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here. ...Read More

Credit check, Euro area current account

Going from bad to worse, so the way things are going seems the contribution to year over year GDP growth in q2 from credit expansion will be less than it was in q1: Never yet seen a current account surplus like this and a weak currency? (Euro area surplus = rest of ...Read More

Mortgage apps, Headlines

New applications seem to be modestly increasing even as bank lending for real estate has been flat and decelerating: Hard to say which is worse for markets- if Trump remains as President or if he is removed: ...Read More

Housing starts, Industrial production, Fed wage tracker

No surprise here, after seeing what mortgage lending has been doing: Highlights A topping out from lower-than-indicated expansion highs is the news from the April housing starts report where levels, though still healthy, are disappointing. Starts fell 2.6 percent to a 1.172 million annualized rate that is well below Econoday’s low estimate ...Read More

NY state mfg survey, Housing index, Lending, White House headline

Trumped up expectations reversing? Highlights Activity in the New York manufacturing region is flattening out this month following a run of unusually strong growth. May’s Empire State index came in at a lower-than-expected minus 1.0 with new orders also moving into the negative column to minus 4.4. Unfilled orders, which were very ...Read More

Retail sales, Business inventories and sales, Inflation

A bit weaker than expected, prior month revisions about a wash. Highlights Retail sales did recover in April but not as much as expected, up 0.4 percent overall and up 0.3 percent excluding autos which both miss Econoday’s consensus estimates by 2 tenths. Core readings are likewise soft, up 0.3 percent ex-auto ...Read More

Energy capex, LA port activity, Fed portfolio

Energy capex collapsed first, followed by non energy capex about a year later. Question now is whether the Q1 non energy capex recovery continues into Q2. I suspect not. In any case the contribution to growth from energy capex is no longer negative but not all that much as a % of ...Read More

Reserve allocation, Pump priming, GDP forecasts

You can see how central bank reserve shifting worked to lower the euro vs the dollar. Yes, we need a larger deficit, both short and long term, given current institutional structure that gives powerful incentives to not spend income. Not that the current proposals to do that are my first choice as ...Read More

NFIB index, Redbook retail sales, Jolts, Wholesale trade, MMT Article, NY Fed Consumer expectations

Trumped up expectations fading only slowly, as confirmed by stocks, etc: A glimmer of hope seems to have faded: Highlights There’s plenty of help-wanted signs but still too few qualified applicants. Job openings in March totaled 5.743 million, up from a revised 5.682 million in February and well ahead of hirings which ...Read More

Credit check

Not a pretty sight: ...Read More

Employment, NY Fed q2 GDP forecast, Consumer credit

Highlights The labor train is back on the tracks as nonfarm payrolls reversed the prior month’s weakness and came in on the high side of expectations, up 211,000 in April vs a revised 79,000 in March for the third 200,000 plus reading so far this year. Payroll gains are centered in business ...Read More