PMC Donation Information

I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here. ...Read More

Credit check, Comments on the great moderation

Gradual deceleration looks to be continuing: Growth here had been increasing, helping to offset the decline in govt. deficit spending, but after the oil capex collapse this measure of credit growth leveled off: Real estate as well as consumer loan growth have also leveled off: This story is all about income here ...Read More

June car sales forecasts, Philly Fed recession indicator

Looks like another small decrease as the deceleration continues: Vehicle Sales Forecasts: Sales to be Over 17 Million SAAR again in June By Bill McBride June 24 (Calculated Risk Blog) — The automakers will report June vehicle sales on Friday, July 1st. Note: There were 26 selling days in June, up from ...Read More

Durable goods orders, Consumer sentiment, UK comments

Weaker than expected, and turns out it was up in April followed by down in May as previously discussed: Highlights May proved to be a generally weak month for the factory sector. Minus signs spread across the durable goods report with total new orders down a very sizable 2.2 percent and ex-transportation ...Read More

Chicago Fed, New home sales, Architecture Billings Index

Remember the enthusiasm around last month’s move up? As suspected, it’s reversed and the 3 month average remains negative: Highlights May was a weak month based on the minus 0.51 result for the national activity index, one that drives the 3-month average to a minus 0.36 level consistent with below average growth. ...Read More

Mtg purchase apps, Existing home sales

Highlights Despite another fall in rates, the purchase index is not pointing to acceleration for home sales, down 2.0 percent in the June 17 week with year-on-year growth slowing 4 percentage points to 12 percent. Low rates, however, are an immediate plus for refinancing where the index rose 7.0 percent. And rates ...Read More

Chemical activity barometer, Fed Atlanta job tracker, Recession article

Looks to me like it’s still decelerating? From the American Chemistry Council: Chemical Activity Barometer Continues Solid Growth in June; Signals Higher U.S. Business Activity Through End Of The Year Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/#fcgmQuzJH31oFHbc.99 Wage ‘pressures’ indicators, after all this time, are finally moving up towards what would have been considered historically ...Read More

Redbook retail sales, Help wanted index, Job openings, Port traffic

Still nothing happening here: More imports, fewer exports: ...Read More

Housing starts, Beijing bans iPhone 6

Not good. Note from the chart how growth has stalled, and housing is not likely to add as much to GDP this year as it did last year: Highlights Housing starts are solid but not permits. Starts did slip 0.3 percent to a 1.164 million annualized rate in May but the trend ...Read More

CPI, US current account, Philly Fed, Housing market index, Wage data

Continues well below the Fed’s target: Highlights Whatever pressure may be building in import & export prices or even producer prices, it has yet to give much of a boost to consumer prices which rose only 0.2 percent in May. Core prices, that is prices excluding food and energy, also came in ...Read More

Mtg apps, Empire State survey, Industrial Production, Euro area trade surplus

Purchase applications backed off but have been moving higher for several months, though still very depressed: A nice move up but as per the chart it’s hovering around 0: Worse than expected, and continues at recession levels, and note the decline in autos: Highlights A steep drop in vehicle production pulled industrial ...Read More