PMC Donation Information
Uncategorized
Aug 14, 2014
I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here.
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Consumer credit, Supply Chain, China exports
Uncategorized
Aug 07, 2022
This is about borrowing to spend, indicating positive spending and GDP: Pressures easing here: And this may indicate global spending is holding up: So in short we had Covid deficit spending north of 15% of GDP supporting strong growth, followed by a collapse in deficit spending that resulted in a strong deceleration
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Exports, employment
Uncategorized
Aug 05, 2022
This is adding support to employment and output, even as consumption weakens. The relatively low cost of energy should keep it going for a while: No sign of recession here: Still falling short of price increases so obviously not the cause:
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Manufacturing PMI, construction spending, hires, loans
Uncategorized
Aug 03, 2022
Still in positive growth: A bit softer after a post-Covid acceleration: Took a zig down last month but still very high and still trending higher: Lending continues higher well after the rate hikes, which presumably work to cut demand by dampening lending:
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Personal consumption and income, personal interest income
Uncategorized
Jul 30, 2022
Flattening with the fiscal contraction, but no recession yet: Thank goodness for the rate hikes and their support of personal income ;)
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GDP, population, vehicle sales
Uncategorized
Jul 28, 2022
Weak headline, but so far not looking as bad as most mistakenly expected with Fed rate hikes: Slowing in real terms but growing: Growing fast in nominal terms: This is telling: They’ve generally been falling off for several years, though up a bit for the last three months since the rate hikes:
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Durable goods orders, oil prices, Saudi OSP’s
Uncategorized
Jul 27, 2022
Not adjusted for inflation but not showing signs of recession: If oil prices remain near current levels the inflation is over and we’re back to pre-Covid low inflation and slow growth, with a government deficit of maybe 5-6% of GDP (including the new interest expense from the rate hikes which support the
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DFO optimism, homebuyer competition, Architecture index, mortgage purchase apps, builder confidence
Uncategorized
Jul 20, 2022
This makes sense to me. We have had a post-Covid war slowdown in federal spending that is evidenced by the decelerating economy. But the federal deficit is still high enough to keep things muddling through at modest growth, helped some by the rate hikes which are universally believed to slow things down
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Shipping, CPI
Uncategorized
Jul 15, 2022
Worst of the shipping issues are behind us: Wholesale price growth is moderating as well: Core CPI growth also moderating: Headline CPI continues to grow, and it is mainly driven by energy prices: Recently, however, energy prices, which have been the primary driver of higher prices, have dropped substantially, so the next
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ISM services, employment
Uncategorized
Jul 08, 2022
The rate of growth has been decelerating due to the fiscal contraction, but remains over 50 which means positive growth: No recession here as employment growth continues and unemployment isn’t rising. Yes, growth is slowing from the post-Covid fiscal collapse, but not yet to the point of negative growth. And the increase
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Dallas Fed, consumer confidence, manufacturing PMI, durable goods orders
Uncategorized
Jul 01, 2022
Decelerating from post-Covid bounce expansion rates of growth: Decelerating but still at reasonably high levels: Decelerating from the post-Covid war fiscal consolidation but still positive: Still up:
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