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I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here. ...Read More

Small business optimism, China autos, Household asset ratio

Still elevated vs before the election, but working its way down from the highs: China Auto Sales Fall for 17th Straight Month Vehicles sales in China dropped 3.6 percent from a year ago to 2.46 million units in November 2019, marking the 17th consecutive month of decline, as local governments accelerated changes ...Read More

Germany, Japan, rails

Deeper into contraction: German Industrial Output Falls Unexpectedly Industrial production in Germany dropped by 1.7% mom in October 2019, missing market expectations of a 0.1% growth and following a 0.6% fall in September. This marked the steepest monthly decrease in industrial output since April, as production fell for capital goods (-4.4%), including ...Read More

Employment, Wholesale inventories and sales

Still in a down draft with additional tariffs scheduled to kick in Dec 15. Decelerating employment growth translates into decelerating personal income growth, etc. etc. etc. Similar pattern for wages- up some with tax cuts, down with tariffs: Meanwhile seems the crowd is making a big deal over the larger than expected ...Read More

Small business hiring, S&P earnings, Trump

A Growing Share of S&P 500 Companies’ Earnings Are Contracting 350 health professionals sign letter to Congress claiming Trump’s mental health is deteriorating dangerously amid impeachment proceedings ...Read More

Trade, Vehicle sales, Air cargo

The details show a weakening US consumer: The US trade deficit narrowed to USD 47.2 billion in October of 2019 from a downwardly revised USD 51.1 billion in the previous month, and below market expectations of a USD 48.7 billion. It is the lowest trade gap since May of 2018. Imports slumped ...Read More

ADP, ISM services, Bank lending, Euro area earnings forecasts, ISM NY

US Companies Add the Least Jobs in 6 Months: ADP Private businesses in the US hired 67K workers in November, well below market expectations of 140K and compared with a downwardly revised 121K in October. The service-providing sector added 85K jobs, driven mostly by education & health; professional & business; leisure & ...Read More

EEI Index, New tariffs, South Korea, US capex

Makes matters worse: US vows 100% tariffs on French Champagne, cheese, handbags over digital tax US capital expenditures collapsing: ...Read More

ISM Manufacturing, Construction, Mexico PMI, Germany

Contraction: Also heading south: Deceleration: China using fiscal adjustments to sustain domestic demand while redirecting trade which won’t help the US: ...Read More

Euro area business climate, US small business employment, Japan retail sales, Australia

Happy Thanksgiving to all! Who would’ve thought? ;) Australia Q3 Private Investment Falls More than Estimated Private capital expenditure in Australia dropped by 0.2 percent quarter-on-quarter in the three months to September 2019, following a revised 0.6 percent fall in the previous period and compared with market expectations of a 0.1 percent ...Read More

Durable goods orders, Personal consumption and spending, Richmond Fed, Chicago PMI, Chemicals

In contraction: Deceleration that was temporarily interrupted by the tax cuts has resumed with the tariffs: The Manufacturing Activity Index in the US fifth district including the District of Columbia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and most of West Virginia decreased to -1 in November 2019 from 8 in the previous ...Read More