PMC Donation Information

I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here. ...Read More

New home sales, Trucking, Trump comments

Up, though less then expected. Nothing here to suggest any kind of economic acceleration: Highlights New home sales have lost some traction and it’s not because of tightening supply. At 555,000, January’s annualized pace came in more than 20,000 below the Econoday consensus and includes a big downward revision, not to December ...Read More

Mtg purchase apps, Existing home sales, Architecture billings

Down again, and these are seasonally adjusted: Highlights Purchase applications for home mortgages fell a seasonally adjusted 3 percent in the February 17 week, while refinancing applications decreased by 1 percent to the lowest level since January. Unadjusted, the purchase index rose 2 percent from the prior week and was up 10 ...Read More

PMI, Earnings, euro zone holdings, oil related comments

Trumped up expectations cooling a bit? PMI Manufacturing Index Flash Services: Initial earnings estimates have tended to fall: This is extraordinary, as their liabilities are most likely predominately euro denominated, which is what I’d call a ‘fundamental short’ position. That is, this has been part of the ‘portfolio shifting’ that has been ...Read More

Bank lending, NYC new construction, GDP chart

Manhattan condo market cracking, developers roll out big incentives Manhattan saw rampant new construction since the recession, and thousands of new luxury units flooded the market, with stark consequences. The median sale price for new construction ended 2016 down 44 percent, compared with the end of 2015, according to a quarterly report ...Read More

Euro area current account, E commerce retail sales, Tax refunds

This is very euro friendly stuff. Euro Area Current Account Eurozone’s current account surplus widened sharply to EUR 47.0 billion from EUR 41.4 billion in the same month of the previous year. The primary income surplus increased firmly to EUR 18.2 billion from EUR 13.0 billion a year ago and the goods ...Read More

Housing starts, Philidelphia Fed survey, NY Fed on household debt

Still depressed by historical standards, and still seem to me to be going sideways, as per the charts: Highlights Housing starts did fall 2.6 percent in January but the 1.246 million annualized rate is well above Econoday’s consensus for 1.232 million. Details show a 1.9 percent rise for single-family starts to a ...Read More

Retail sales, Empire manufacturing, Mortgage purchase applications, Industrial production, Builder confidence, Business inventories

First the good news: Up more than expected and last month revised higher: Highlights Consumer spending data have been surprisingly moderate given the unusual strength in consumer confidence, but today’s retail sales report, which includes an important revision, now moves spending more in line with confidence. Retail sales rose 0.4 percent in ...Read More

NFIB index, Fed Richmond GDP chart, Yellen comment, Trump comments

Trumped up expectations continue: I understand that by the numbers we aren’t currently considered in ‘recession’… So tell me he’s not a 7 or 8 year old juvenile in a 70 year old body? Play date… ...Read More

Consumer sentiment, China policy, Iran

Trumped up expectations fading: No telling why our new President changed his mind on this one. Might have something to do with a kosher house being a two china policy… ;) White House confirms Trump’s agreement to honor ‘One China’ policy By Everett Rosenfeld Feb 10 (CNBC) — A White House statement ...Read More

Wholesale inventories and sales, Trump comments

Highlights Inventories have been on the climb raising the risk of unwanted overhang. But overhang isn’t the story of the December wholesale trade report where a large 1.0 percent build is far outmatched by a 2.6 percent surge in sales. The results pull the stock-to-sales ratio down sharply to 1.29 from 1.31. ...Read More