PMC Donation Information

I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here. ...Read More

Retail sales, US Industrial Production, China Industrial Production, Morgan Stanley business conditions index

Not adjusted for inflation: Adjusted for inflation: Still looking down: Remember when last month’s spike higher was presumed to be the start of a turn around? . A Morgan Stanley economic indicator just suffered a record collapse ...Read More

Fed recession models, Trade, Euro area industrial production

Imports and exports both decelerating: Still in contraction: ...Read More

Small business optimism, JOLTS, Rail chart, Commercial real estate, Tariffs

Trump says ‘devalued’ currencies put US at a disadvantage and the Fed doesn’t have a ‘clue’ President Donald Trump said Tuesday the U.S. dollar is at a disadvantage compared to other major currencies like the euro as other central banks keep interest rates low while the Federal Reserve’s rates are higher by ...Read More

Employment, German industrial production

Now even the lagging indicators are pointing south. And lower rates from the Fed will only make it a bit worse by cutting gov. interest payments to the economy: Highlights Move up the rate-cut plans is the theme of the May employment report which shows declining growth in the labor market and ...Read More

Manufacturing jobs, Trade, Jobless claims, Tariff news

As previously discussed, unemployment benefits have become much harder to get than in prior cycles, which means they will go up that much less as employment slows, and also that they won’t function as an automatic fiscal stabilizer to the extent they did in prior cycles, which will work to delay a ...Read More

ADP, Mtg purchase apps, Vehicle sales

Employment can be a lagging indicator, so this forecast of Friday’s employment number could be verifying the rest of the weakness that’s been reported: US Private Sector Jobs Rise the Least in 9 Years Private businesses in the US hired 27 thousand workers in May, less than an expected 180 thousand and ...Read More

Factory orders, Fed comments, Lumber prices

US Factory Orders Fall the Most in 6 Months New orders for US manufactured goods fell 0.8% in April, the most since October last year, due to lower demand for transportation equipment, computers and electronic orders, and primary metals. Meanwhile, shipments of manufactured goods declined 0.5% in April, the largest drop since ...Read More

Construction spending, ISM manufacturing, UK Manufacturing

Global contraction in progress… :( US construction spending ...Read More

Industrial Production, Forecast, US personal income, Oil, ATT Presidential boycott

Slow motion trainwreck by Agent Orange, aka Tariff Man, continues… Below 50 indicates contraction: Demand for Saudi oil has fallen back: Saudi pricing of discounts generally trending higher but most recently there’s been a small move back: And how about this? ...Read More

Bloomberg interview, Shipping, Lending, Profits, Trade, Pending home sales

Interest-Rate Policy Is Backward, Modern Monetary Theory Pioneer Mosler Says Under consumption identity: for ever agent that spent less than his income, another must have spent more, or the output would not have been sold. In other words, deficit spending, private or public, is the ‘offset’ to unspent income (savings). The chart ...Read More