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Aug 14, 2014
I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here.
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Jobs, Vehicle sales, Housing starts, Industrial production
Economic Releases
Jan 21, 2020
Rolled over and heading lower: Rolling over and heading south: Had been rolling over but then this year end/good weather spike in December housing starts and lower rates probably worked to move activity forward from 2020. Permits had a small spike a bit earlier, and have since leveled off, and no house
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NY manufacturing, Market cap concentration, Private equity
Economic Releases
Jan 16, 2020
Looks somewhat like the 2000 buildup: Private equity most often includes substantial new debt:
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Earnings, Small business index
Economic Releases
Jan 14, 2020
Earnings went up with the tax cuts but have decelerated sharply with the tariffs: Working its way lower as trumped up expectations recede only gradually:
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Rails, Bank loans
Economic Releases
Jan 13, 2020
Deep in contraction: AAR: December Rail Carloads down 9.2% YoY, Intermodal Down 9.6% YoY Still decelerating:
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Employment, Wholesale sales, Auto and credit card delinquencies, Euro area trade
Economic Releases
Jan 10, 2020
Decelerating since tariffs went into effect: Tend to rise as economy slows: ??? My strong euro fundamental seems to have been based on misleading reporting:
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ADP employment, Mtg purchase apps, Euro area sentiment and business climate
Economic Releases
Jan 08, 2020
Headlines look good, chart not so good: Still depressed: Headlines look good, chart not so good:
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Trade, Durable goods, India GDP, Gasoline prices, ISM services
Economic Releases
Jan 08, 2020
Both imports and exports falling as per the global trade collapse. Falling imports are also an indication of consumer weakness: New orders heading south with tariffs: Familiar pattern: Fire related maybe: Australia Construction PMI Contracts Further The Ai Group Australian Performance of Construction Index declined to 38.9 in December 2019 from 40
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Rails, Margin debt, Iraq exit
Economic Releases
Jan 06, 2020
Got to give Trump credit, the assassination got us out of Iraq! Iraqi parliament calls for US troops to be expelled —coalition suspends operations against ISIS
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ISM manufacturing, Construction, ISM NY, NY apts, Euro area loans
Economic Releases
Jan 03, 2020
Deeper into contraction: The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The December PMI® registered 47.2 percent, a decrease of 0.9 percentage point from the November reading of 48.1 percent. This is the PMI®’s lowest reading since
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