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I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here. ...Read More

Apartment market tightness, Chicago diffusion index, Equity flows, UK PMI and public sector deficit, Union Pacific

Looks like a bit of oversupply from new construction, and it didn’t take much of that, either, as construction has been well below prior cycles: “Apartment markets remain strong, but the surge of new apartment construction is starting to shift the supply-demand balance, particularly in the market for upscale apartments,” said Mark ...Read More

Architecture Billings Index, Teen employment

Going nowhere: Key June ABI highlights: Regional averages: South (55.5), West (54.1), Northeast (51.8), Midwest (48.2) Sector index breakdown: multi-family residential (57.9), institutional (52.7), mixed practice (51.0), commercial / industrial (50.3) Project inquiries index: 58.6 Design contracts index: 49.7 From the AIA: Architecture Billings Index remains on solid footing Buoyed by increasing ...Read More

Philly Fed, Chicago Fed, Existing home sales, NY state revenue report, Hamptons real estate sales

The setbacks continue: As is the general case, this indicator rose with the oil capex boom then peaked with the collapse in oil capex, and remains in negative territory: Same here. Peaked when the oil capex boom ended and the 3 month average is still in negative territory: A bit better than ...Read More

Mtg purchase apps, Gallup index, Euro area current account

Down again, and you can see from the chart that it’s most recently gone flat after ramping up a bit: Just another index that headed south after the collapse in oil capex: The euro area current account surplus continues to trend higher: Euro Area Current Account The current account surplus in the ...Read More

Housing starts, Redbook retail sales, Comments on low rates

Last month’s downward revision and the drop in permits make this report particularly negative. Again, looks like housing will be a drag on growth this year vs last year: Still trending from bad to worse: With the govt a net payer of interest, rate cuts reduce total interest income for the economy ...Read More

SNB, Homebuilder optimism, Corporate profits, Morgan Stanley cartoon

It looks like the SNB (Swiss National Bank- the central bank) has been building $ reserves faster than euro reserves, which has worked to support the $ vs the euro. That is, when they were buying euro to keep their currency down they were selling quite a few of those euro for ...Read More

CPI, retail sales, Empire State Mfg, Industrial production, Business inventories, Consumer sentiment, JPM earnings, UK comment, China comment

A bit less than expected- nothing to cause the Fed to be alarmed. You’d think that by now they’d realize that all that rate cutting and so called ‘money printing’ has nothing to do with the price level or ‘accommodation’…: Highlights Price pressures evident the last two months down the supply chain ...Read More

Treasury budget, Air freight index, Atlanta Fed

It was previously noted that Treasury revenue was down, which now is confirmed in this report. This is the beginning of the automatic fiscal stabilizers at work, where weakness translates into a larger federal deficit, and persists until deficit spending is sufficient to more than offset unspent income, as is necessary for ...Read More

Oil prices, Regional feds, Long term deficit forecasts, China trade

A few weeks ago I posted the announcement of Saudi price cuts, suggesting this could be meant to bring down prices, which now seems to be happening: Again, with no loan demand, they are calling for higher rates, presumably to slow down lending: Six Fed banks called for discount rate hike: minutes ...Read More

Mtg purchase apps, EU deficit limits, Wholesale sales, New home sales per capita

Unchanged from last week as modest growth from very low levels continues: The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index was unchanged from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 20 percent compared with the previous week and was 5 percent lower than the same week one year ago. Last year, the Fourth of ...Read More