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I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here. ...Read More

PMI services and manufacturing, Existing home sales, Kudlow comment, Trump comment

This one is for the lion’s share of the US economy and it’s fallen back: Same with manufacturing: Also fell back some and in general remains depressed and going nowhere: Kudlow says market is wrong… ;) Looks like the President’s mental capabilities are rapidly deteriorating: ...Read More

Capital expenditures, Philly Fed, Tariffs

The Philadelphia Fed’s survey just gapped up, much like some of the others. Could be that manufacturing has stabilized at current levels, but too soon to say: White House Admits That Trump Trade Stance Did Depress Economy ...Read More

Housing starts, Stock buybacks

Reversed some but still higher than expected, and still historically depressed: However, the weather was very nice again in January (just like in December), and the weather probably had a significant impact on the seasonally adjusted housing starts number. The winter months of December and January have the largest seasonal factors, so ...Read More

NY PMI, Walmart, Japan, Oil

Another move up that may or may not reverse: Walmart earnings and outlook fall short as holiday season disappoints This price drop will negatively effect capital expenditures as well as the value of oil being produced, both negatives for GDP: ...Read More

Bank loans, Containers, Bloomberg

Largely unchanged for over a year now: Historically depressed, and adjusted for inflation and population growth real estate lending growth isn’t much above 0: This much credit tightening has historically been followed by recession: Still no candidates showing an understanding of monetary operations, so it’s not a distinction :( Bloomberg unveils plans ...Read More

Euro area GDP, Germany, Industrial Production, Retail sales, Consumer sentiment

Contraction: The index is up but the mix of details is odd: ...Read More

India, euro area

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JOLTS, Small business index, Household debt, Wholesale inventories and sales, Germany The number of job openings in the US fell by 364,000 to 6.423 million in December 2019 from a revised 6.787 million in November and well below market expectations of 7.0 million. It was the lowest level since December 2017, as openings slumped by 332 thousand in the private sector and ...Read More

Employment, Mtg purchase apps, Rails, Germany

Year over year growth declined, at least for now reversing a small move up in the context of a larger move lower. Decelerating employment growth generally coincides with decelerating GDP, as has been the case: Another indicator that’s been perking up. May be weather related: Intermodal traffic’s prolonged contraction shifted to expansion ...Read More


Jan 2019 printed 312,000 net hires, so anything less in tomorrow’s report means the year over year growth was lower. The average for the rest of the year was about 200,000, well below prior years: This is how it stands before tomorrow’s release: ...Read More