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I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here. ...Read More

Mtg purchase apps, CPI, Retail sales

Still depressed and going nowhere: Highlights Amid rising interest rates, purchase applications for home mortgages fell by a seasonally adjusted 6.0 percent in the February 9 week. Unadjusted, the year-on-year gain in the volume of purchase applications fell 4.0 percentage points to 4.0 percent. Applications for refinancing fell just 2.0 percent in ...Read More

Unemployment benefits, Debt/GDP, Same store sales

Unemployment benefits are harder to get, as previously discussed: The Next Recession Is Gonna Really Suck As a result, the rate at which unemployed Americans receive layoff compensation overall has fallen from about 36 percent in 2007 to about 28 percent in 2017, according to data from The Department of Labor. Wayne ...Read More

Spending bill, Rail traffic, Rig count, Saudi pricing

This alone could add maybe 2% to nominal GDP. How much real output it adds is another question, of course: Trump signs massive spending deal into law and ends year’s second government shutdown Self-professed fiscal hawks in the House also opposed the bill. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated Thursday that it ...Read More

Spending bill, Rail traffic, Bank loans

This alone could add maybe 2% to nominal GDP. How much real output it adds is another question, of course: Trump signs massive spending deal into law and ends year’s second government shutdown Self-professed fiscal hawks in the House also opposed the bill. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated Thursday that it ...Read More

Consumer credit, Mania comment, Fed on rates and inflation

It’s been decelerating all year with a year end move up that’s likely to be reversed as personal income growth continues to be very low: Highlights Consumer borrowing increased in December, up $18.4 billion vs an upwardly revised $31.0 billion in November which is the largest monthly increase since a break in ...Read More

Mtg apps, Jolts, Trade

Still going nowhere: Highlights The volume of purchase applications for home mortgages remained unchanged on a seasonally adjusted basis in the February 2 week, while refinancing applications rose 1.0 percent from the previous week despite the headwind of rising interest rates. Unadjusted, purchase applications increased 7 percent from the previous week, though ...Read More

US service sector surveys

Seems the two US service sector surveys are a bit at odds with each other: ...Read More

Employment, Factory orders, Bank loans

Note how the year over year growth rate continues it’s 3 year decline, and is in ‘stall speed’ with no sign of reversal. And last I heard a .1 change in the work week hours is equal to about 100,000 jobs, so the .2 drop last month offsets the 200,000 new jobs: ...Read More

Vehicle sales, Construction spending, GDP comments, Comments on tax cuts, Comments on fed policy

Even lower than expected as weakness continues: U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decline to 17.1 million annual rate in January By Bill McBride Feb 1, (calculated Risk) — Based on a preliminary estimate from AutoData, light vehicle sales were at a 17.1 million SAAR in January. That is down 1.2% from January 2017, ...Read More

ADP employment forecast, Pending home sales, Income and spending

This is now a forecast for Friday’s payroll number, and note from the chart that it’s been diverging all year. Seems there’s some kind of error in their forecasting methodology? Highlights ADP sees a very strong employment report coming out on Friday, estimating a 234,000 rise in private payrolls. ADP has been ...Read More