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Aug 14, 2014
I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here.
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PMI services and manufacturing, Existing home sales, Kudlow comment, Trump comment
Economic Releases
Feb 21, 2020
This one is for the lion’s share of the US economy and it’s fallen back: Same with manufacturing: Also fell back some and in general remains depressed and going nowhere: Kudlow says market is wrong… ;) Looks like the President’s mental capabilities are rapidly deteriorating:
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Capital expenditures, Philly Fed, Tariffs
Economic Releases
Feb 20, 2020
The Philadelphia Fed’s survey just gapped up, much like some of the others. Could be that manufacturing has stabilized at current levels, but too soon to say: White House Admits That Trump Trade Stance Did Depress Economy
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Housing starts, Stock buybacks
Economic Releases
Feb 19, 2020
Reversed some but still higher than expected, and still historically depressed: However, the weather was very nice again in January (just like in December), and the weather probably had a significant impact on the seasonally adjusted housing starts number. The winter months of December and January have the largest seasonal factors, so
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NY PMI, Walmart, Japan, Oil
Economic Releases
Feb 18, 2020
Another move up that may or may not reverse: Walmart earnings and outlook fall short as holiday season disappoints This price drop will negatively effect capital expenditures as well as the value of oil being produced, both negatives for GDP:
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Bank loans, Containers, Bloomberg
Economic Releases
Feb 18, 2020
Largely unchanged for over a year now: Historically depressed, and adjusted for inflation and population growth real estate lending growth isn’t much above 0: This much credit tightening has historically been followed by recession: Still no candidates showing an understanding of monetary operations, so it’s not a distinction :( Bloomberg unveils plans
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Euro area GDP, Germany, Industrial Production, Retail sales, Consumer sentiment
Economic Releases
Feb 14, 2020
Contraction: The index is up but the mix of details is odd:
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India, euro area
Economic Releases
Feb 13, 2020
JOLTS, Small business index, Household debt, Wholesale inventories and sales, Germany
Economic Releases
Feb 11, 2020
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/job-offers The number of job openings in the US fell by 364,000 to 6.423 million in December 2019 from a revised 6.787 million in November and well below market expectations of 7.0 million. It was the lowest level since December 2017, as openings slumped by 332 thousand in the private sector and
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Employment, Mtg purchase apps, Rails, Germany
Economic Releases
Feb 07, 2020
Year over year growth declined, at least for now reversing a small move up in the context of a larger move lower. Decelerating employment growth generally coincides with decelerating GDP, as has been the case: Another indicator that’s been perking up. May be weather related: Intermodal traffic’s prolonged contraction shifted to expansion
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Employment
Economic Releases
Feb 06, 2020
Jan 2019 printed 312,000 net hires, so anything less in tomorrow’s report means the year over year growth was lower. The average for the rest of the year was about 200,000, well below prior years: This is how it stands before tomorrow’s release:
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