PMC Donation Information
Uncategorized
Aug 14, 2014
I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here.
...Read More
Durable goods, housing permits, new home sales, consumer confidence
Uncategorized
Sep 27, 2022
No recession here: Permits for new home construction are down from the post-Covid bounce but remain above pre-Covid levels: New home sales recovering from rate hike fears and returning to pre-Covid highs, as in fact rate hikes increase gov deficit spending on interest expense paid to the economy, adding to incomes and
...Read More
US manufacturing, bank loans
Uncategorized
Sep 24, 2022
Stabilizing at modest expansion levels, helped by exports due to relatively low cost US energy: No sign yet the Fed rate hikes have worked to slow lending and demand as presumed they would:
...Read More
Exports, multi-family housing starts, unemployment claims
Uncategorized
Sep 22, 2022
US exports continue to grow rapidly as the US has the least expensive energy costs. It’s an indirect way to export energy and it works to keep the $US relatively strong: New highs and growing rapidly: No sign of stress here:
...Read More
Existing home sales, architecture billing index, Biden response
Uncategorized
Sep 21, 2022
Sales had leveled off pre-Covid, then took a Covid dip followed by a recovery bounce, and now seem to be maybe a touch below the pre-Covid range: Moderate growth in this leading indicator: I have no idea what this response means as we gravitate towards nuclear war:
...Read More
Housing starts, consumer sentiment
Uncategorized
Sep 20, 2022
Housing may be bouncing back as the fear of rate hikes is overtaken by the increase in incomes: Nice move up away from recession, though too soon to say things have reversed:
...Read More
Industrial production, retail sales, unemployment claims, comments
Uncategorized
Sep 15, 2022
This index is settling in to about a 3.5% annual rate of growth. No recession indication here: No recession here either: No sign of recession here: Markets are being driven by the understanding that the Fed will continue to raise rates until there is a recession, not realizing that rate increases, with
...Read More
CPI, Restaurants and airlines, optimism index
Uncategorized
Sep 13, 2022
Gone flat since oil prices broke, and means that the strong nominal personal income growth becomes strong real income growth: Still negative but making a comeback even with the rate hikes:
...Read More
Unemployment claims, PMI services, mtg applications and lending
Uncategorized
Sep 08, 2022
No sign of recession, and lots of indications the rate hikes that are adding to deficit spending as supporting the economy and prices, and not depressing them, and more rate hikes will only do more of same. And it doesn’t end until the Fed understands it has had it all backwards: This
...Read More
Employment, durable goods orders
Uncategorized
Sep 02, 2022
No recession here either: Asymptotically approaching pre-Covid levels: Wage growth continues to lag (not cause) the growth rate of the CPI: Government had more employees under President Trump vs Presidents Obama and Biden? ;) This doesn’t look like a recession either:
...Read More
JOLTS, ISM manufacturing, fed funds rate
Uncategorized
Sep 01, 2022
No recession yet, at least partially due to the increased federal deficit spending on interest payments as the Fed hikes rates: With debt/GDP the rate hikes have had the effect of about $500 billion/year of additional (highly regressive) federal deficit spending:
...Read More