PMC donation information

I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here. ...Read More

Stephanie Kelton, Rail cars, Econintersect forecast, Italy comment, corp profits

Professor Kelton hit the ground running in January and has been making serious inroads! This article has the usual misrepresentations, of course, but now Stephanie’s position gives her the opportunity to respond publicly and decisively. U.S. Senate economist explains why deficits aren’t always evil: Walkom By Thomas Walkom Stephanie Kelton is part ...Read More

Atlanta Fed, Redbook retail sales, mtg purchase apps

Still not showing much of a rebound from Q1, with their Q2 GDP forecast now at only .8% annualized: Continues to disappoint and still looking worse than it was in Q1: Redbook Retail Sales Up 1% after being down 4% last week: United States : MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights Mortgage rates are ...Read More

Comments on transport weakness, Draghi comments, Japan exports to US, new home sales,PMI and Fed indexes chart, Dallas Fed, Richmond Fed, Consumer confidence

Transport Is Saying Consumer Spending Should Slow Further By Steven Hansen When one analyzes the economy, there are always some sections which do better than others. When the economic growth is weak (like currently), several segments can be in contraction while others are expanding. Everything but the needed fiscal relaxation: ECB’s Draghi ...Read More


Today’s markets reacted entirely to the .3 increase in core CPI which was actually 0.26 which rounded to 0.3. This, for example, caused the dollar to gap up for the day vs the euro, as traders and portfolio managers acted on the beliefs that it made a Fed hike more likely to ...Read More

seasonal adjustments, export reports, Atlanta Fed, Chicago Fed, PMI manufacturing, Philadelphia Fed Survey, Existing home sales, KC Fed

Note that if/when the adjustments are changed it looks like they make Q4 and Q1 a bit higher and Q2 and Q3 a bit lower. The net adjustments are 0 for the year. Nicole Mayerhauser, chief of BEA’s national income and wealth division, which oversees the GDP report, said in the statement ...Read More

IMF re France, truck tonnage, China PMI, Japan PMI

More of same pro cyclical pressure: France slammed by IMF for record-high spending By Holly Ellyatt May 20 (CNBC) — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned France that it must reduce government spending and debt levels, as well as tackling its sticky unemployment rate. The IMF said in its latest economic ...Read More

Japan Q1 GDP, Sea Containers, home building charts

Looks like mainly inventory building: Japan : GDP Highlights The Japanese economy appears to be recovering with its second consecutive quarter of growth. First quarter gross domestic product was up 0.6 percent on the quarter – consensus was for a 0.4 percent quarterly gain. On an annualized basis, GDP was up 2.4 ...Read More

Atlanta Fed, LA port traffic, EU trade surplus, German ZEW, housing starts, redbook retail sales

No positive change here yet: This was supposed to rebound: LA area Port Traffic Decreased in April By Bill McBride May 18 (Calculated Risk) — Note: LA area ports were impacted by labor negotiations that were settled on February 21st. Port traffic surged in March as the waiting ships were unloaded (the ...Read More

home builder’s index

Doesn’t look like Q2 will be any better than Q1: Housing Market Index Highlights The housing market index has long been signaling strength in the new home market that has yet to appear, but the signal is less strong in May. The index fell 2 points from April to 54 which is ...Read More

Credit check

Softening if anything. Still no sign of any Q2 bounce: ...Read More