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I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here. ...Read More

From 1998, Q2 GDP revision, Corporate profits, Trade, Consumer sentiment

Something I wrote that got published in 1998: Revised down, note how the year over year growth has been continuously decelerating ever since the collapse of oil capex, and the strength in consumer spending looks like it could be about healthcare premiumus, which portends cutbacks elsewhere, hence the weaker q3 retail sales, ...Read More

PMI services, Durable goods orders, KC Fed

Weakness now includes the service sector: United States Services PMI The Markit Flash US Services PMI came in at 50.9 in August of 2016, down from 51.4 in the previous month and below market expectations of 52. It is the lowest reading since February with business activity, new orders and employment all ...Read More

Mtg purchase apps, House prices, Existing home sales

Bad news for housing today- mtg purchase apps at the lows of the year, prices moderate, and existing home sales weak, so, as previously discussed, not looking like housing will be contributing to growth this year: ...Read More

Euro consumer confidence, Military accounting, ECB thought…

The beatings will continue until morale improves… The Collapse of Rome: Washington’s $6.5 trillion Black Hole The Defense Finance and Accounting Service, the agency that provides finance and accounting services for the Pentagon’s civilian and military members, has just revealed that it cannot provide adequate documentation for $6.5 trillion worth of “adjustments” ...Read More

Redbook retail sales, PMI, Richmond Fed, New home sales

Still extremely depressed: Down and well below expectations: Highlights Weakness in orders and employment were unfortunate themes of last week’s Empire State and Philly Fed reports and likewise headline the manufacturing PMI report. The PMI, which is based on a nationwide sample of manufacturers, slowed by 8 tenths in the August flash ...Read More

MMT in the news, Chicago Fed, Dividends

Stephanie Kelton #1, Pavlina Tcherneva #4! Up a bit for the month, but the 3 month moving average remains negative: ...Read More

Bank loans, Japan savings, Comments on the economy

Accelerated with the shale boom, still decelerating with the shale bust: Problem is incentives to not spend income, as below, reduce sales, output, and employment. That is, they’ve got it backwards if the goal is increased GDP etc. Japan mulls longer-term tax break for savers Aug 18 (Nikkei) — The Japanese government ...Read More

Jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed business survey, Japan trade

Still looks to me like this is perhaps the most misunderstood statistic, as analysts believe it is signaling strength in the labor markets. Instead I’m suggesting claims are extraordinarily low because the unemployment benefits have become much harder to get: Even with a much higher population and labor force, and with a ...Read More

Mortgage purchase applications, Stock buybacks

The chart shows both how depressed the mortgage market is historically as well as how it’s been deteriorating over the last several months: And lots of headlines like this popping up: Wednesday, August 17, 2016 Sacramento Housing in July: Sales down 7%, Active Inventory down 10% YoY Las Vegas Real Estate in ...Read More

CPI, Housing starts, Redbook retail sales, Industrial production, Euro area trade balance

Lots of nuances but still tending to keep the Fed on hold: Highlights The headlines for the consumer price report look very soft but there are important offsetting pressures. The CPI came in unchanged in July, pulled back by a 1.6 percent monthly decline in energy prices and other weakness including flat ...Read More