PMC Donation Information

I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here. ...Read More

Apartment market survey, Terni presentation

mosler-presentation-terni-2016-10-21 ...Read More

Presidential poll, Euro area current account, Saudi output, Russian nukes

Clinton Vs. Trump: IBD/TIPP Presidential Election Tracking Poll (IBD/TIPP) The IBD/TIPP poll — a collaboration between Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) and TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence (TIPP) — has been the most accurate poll in recent presidential elections (About IBD/TIPP Poll). The latest results for the IBD/TIPP Presidential Election Tracking Poll will be released ...Read More

Housing starts, Mortgate purchase apps, Sales managers index, Garbage carloads, Cass freight index

Starts very weak, but permits up. It’s about permits, so we’ll see if they level off or continue to rise: Highlights Starts are mixed but permits are up in what is a deceptively solid housing starts & permits report. Starts plunged what looks like a shocking 9.0 percent in September, to a ...Read More

CPI, Redbook retail sales, Consumer spending comments, Voter turnout comments

Fed continues to fail to achieve it’s 2% target: No sign here of housing growth picking up from where it’s been: Highlights The new home sector picked up steam in the third quarter and looks to end the second half with strength. The housing market index held on to the bulk of ...Read More

NY state mfg survey, Tsy budget, Sea container counts

Well below expectations and further contraction: Highlights The first indication on October’s factory conditions is negative. The Empire State index is below zero for a third month in a row, at minus 6.80 vs similar readings in September and August. And the details are almost entirely negative with new orders at minus ...Read More

Retail sales, Atlanta Fed, Consumer sentiment, Business inventories, Unemployment claims, Freight transportation services

All numbers as expected. Notice the use of the word ‘solid’ for all the reports? And no one talking about year over year, which eliminates much of the seasonal factors and month to month volatility. Nor do they mention that these numbers are not adjusted for inflation, which pushes the year over ...Read More

JOLTS, Mall closings

So does the fed somehow see this as ‘improvement’ and ‘solid’? More likely to me that the Fed gets criticized for waiting too long to cut. Not that it would matter, of course… Highlights In downbeat indications on the labor market, job openings fell a sharp 7.3 percent in August to 5.443 ...Read More

Mtg purchase apps, Small business indicator, Payouts and cash flow

Another bad one: It’s that other problems have become more important for these small businesses as conditions continue to deteriorate: ...Read More

Fed labor market conditions index, NFIB chart, Oil comment

No one seems to know how much weight the Fed gives to this index: Highlights The labor market conditions index came in at minus 2.2 in September, extending its soft trend this cycle. Definition The Labor Market Conditions Index is an experimental indicator compiled by the Federal Reserve to track labor market ...Read More

NFIB small business index, Hotel occupancy, Redbook retail sales

Went down when consensus expectations were for an increase: Note that it peaked and then fell when oil capex collapsed: The NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism dipped 0.03 points in September for the second consecutive month. Increased inventories fell seven points while hard-to-fill job openings plunged six points landing at 24 ...Read More