PMC Donation Information
Uncategorized
Aug 14, 2014
I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here.
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Retain sales, homebuilder sentiment, housing starts
Uncategorized
May 18, 2022
Not growing when adjusted for inflation: Down but still high vs historical data: Trend still intact: Trend still intact:
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Consumer sentiment, NY manufacturing, oil prices
Uncategorized
May 16, 2022
2008 type of collapse: Lowest ever: Saudi OSPs are still at premiums to fair market value, and the price trend is still up. If it keeps going all heck breaks loose: The President threw the strategic petroleum reserve at it, and lots of other nations did the same, to no avail. And
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Small business optimism index, record budget surplus, commodities
Uncategorized
May 12, 2022
Not good: This is the automatic fiscal stabilizers doing their thing to slow things down during a recovery, and they keep increasing the pressure until growth goes negative. Additionally, with some $30 trillion of public debt, an 8% increase in prices means the value of the public debt- the net money supply
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CPI
Uncategorized
May 11, 2022
My take is we’ve had a one time upward adjustment in prices due to increased costs from Covid-related supply issues, along with supply side disruptions from the Trump/Biden tariffs. Prices seem to have begun to level off and go sideways, which would mean CPI increases returning to the lower, pre-Covid monthly increases:
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Employment, China
China, Employment, Inflation
May 06, 2022
Employment generates income and spending. The gap vs the pre-covid path is closing at an ever slowing rate. And the cost of living is rising faster than wages, which exacts a toll as well. These are inflation-adjusted: This came out last week:
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Personal income and spending
Uncategorized
May 03, 2022
This series keeps drifting lower as personal income isn’t keeping up with price increases: And the economy itself isn’t growing real personal income the way it did pre-covid: Likewise, personal consumption is sluggish: People are saving less and less every month:
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GDP, jobless claims
Uncategorized
May 03, 2022
Typical post war recession type of outcome, as previously discussed: One reason for the low unemployment in the US is that for a lot of people you need a job to get health insurance: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims Reported inflation will fall rapidly unless energy prices increase from current levels, which is likely
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Consumer sentiment, real retail sales, industrial production, wages
Economic Releases, Inflation, Retail Sales
Apr 18, 2022
A bit of an uptick but still trending lower: Sales going sideways on an inflation adjusted basis: This sector seems to be doing ok: Not keeping up with inflation so probably not causing it: Lowest income earners (no college) have been catching up some, but also lagging inflation:
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New manufacturers orders, vehicle sales, unemployment claims, rents, oil prices
Economic Releases, Employment, Inflation, Oil, Retail Sales
Apr 07, 2022
This component is going nowhere: Still trying to catch up from the oil capex collapse of 2016 and covid collapse: Not good: This is an all time low as people scramble to get extra jobs to deal with higher prices, like paying rent, for example: Oil prices taking a breather with the
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Saudi price hike, private payrolls, new hires, corporate profits
Economic Releases, Inflation, Oil, Retail Sales, Russia
Mar 30, 2022
This could easily drive oil up past $200/barrel and trigger a serious recession. This survey/forecast is higher than precovid. The full employment report comes out Friday: Gross new hires have been trending lower: Corporate profits jumped after the covid dip and have recently flattened:
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