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I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here. ...Read More

Containers, Housing index and sales

Analyst Opinion of Container Movements Simply looking at this month versus last month – this was a terrible month. The three month rolling averages significantly declined. This is the first dataset I have seen which could be a self-inflicted wound from the trade wars. The three month rolling average for exports is ...Read More

US factory growth, China car sales, Euro Area, Germany, Fisher comment, State revenues, Las Vegas housing

The tariff thing keeps taking its toll: China Nov car sales fall 14%, biggest drop since 2012 (Reuters) China’s automobile sales fell 13.9 percent in November from a year earlier. The drop in sales to 2.55 million vehicles, a fifth straight decline in monthly numbers. The last time sales fell by more ...Read More

China, Corporate debt and profits, Bank credit, Japan, Leveraged loans

China exports falling with tariffs: China’s November export, import growth shrinks, showing weak demand US exports turning south as well? The deceleration that started with the collapse of oil capex in Dec 2014 took a brief zig up late in 2017, and subsequently continued lower: Likewise the ability to generate gross profits ...Read More

Fed comments, Trump watching stocks

A falling stock market will get the Fed’s attention and trigger real economic weakness and aggressive rate cuts. But those rate cuts remove interest income from the macro economy, which doesn’t recover until after net deficit spending (public or private) gets high enough to support aggregate demand growth. And the last recession ...Read More

Employment, NYSE margin debt

Employment growth had been decelerating with the collapse in oil capex in Dec. 2014, but had started to accelerate with the initial impact of the year-end tax cuts, which now look to be fading: Highlights Sustainable non-inflationary strength is the indication from the November employment report as payroll growth proved favorable and ...Read More

Trade, Factory orders, Vehicle sales, UK service sector, German PMI

Deficit growing despite tariffs. Could be J curve effect: Highlights A slight 0.1 percent decline in exports and a slight 0.2 percent gain in imports made for a sizable 1.7 percent deepening in the nation’s trade deficit in October to $55.5 billion which is just outside Econoday’s consensus range. The deficit with ...Read More

Tariffs, Congress

Imports are real benefits, exports real costs. Seems everyone of consequence has it backwards? A collapse in global trade can make 2008 look tame: ...Read More

Construction spending, Smart phones

Looking very weak: Highlights Construction has been a soft spot of the economy evident once again in October where spending fell 0.1 percent for the third straight decline and the fourth decline in five months. Spending on new single-family homes in October fell 0.5 percent with home-improvement spending down 0.9 percent, both ...Read More

Personal income and spending, Pending home sales

No drama here: More housing weakness news: Highlights This has not been a good run for housing data. Pending home sales fell a very steep 2.6 percent in October which is far below Econoday’s consensus range. Existing home sales did end a long downturn in last week’s report but today’s results point ...Read More

Trade, New home sales, Federal interest payments

Trade deficit still increasing: Highlights The goods portion of October’s trade deficit is deeper than expected, at $77.2 billion vs expectations for $76.9 billion and compared with a monthly average in the third-quarter of $74.6 billion. October’s data opens fourth-quarter net exports on a negative note following the third quarter when trade ...Read More