PMC Donation Information

I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here. ...Read More

Durable goods, housing permits, new home sales, consumer confidence

No recession here: Permits for new home construction are down from the post-Covid bounce but remain above pre-Covid levels: New home sales recovering from rate hike fears and returning to pre-Covid highs, as in fact rate hikes increase gov deficit spending on interest expense paid to the economy, adding to incomes and ...Read More

US manufacturing, bank loans

Stabilizing at modest expansion levels, helped by exports due to relatively low cost US energy: No sign yet the Fed rate hikes have worked to slow lending and demand as presumed they would: ...Read More

Exports, multi-family housing starts, unemployment claims

US exports continue to grow rapidly as the US has the least expensive energy costs. It’s an indirect way to export energy and it works to keep the $US relatively strong: New highs and growing rapidly: No sign of stress here: ...Read More

Existing home sales, architecture billing index, Biden response

Sales had leveled off pre-Covid, then took a Covid dip followed by a recovery bounce, and now seem to be maybe a touch below the pre-Covid range: Moderate growth in this leading indicator: I have no idea what this response means as we gravitate towards nuclear war: ...Read More

Housing starts, consumer sentiment

Housing may be bouncing back as the fear of rate hikes is overtaken by the increase in incomes: Nice move up away from recession, though too soon to say things have reversed: ...Read More

Industrial production, retail sales, unemployment claims, comments

This index is settling in to about a 3.5% annual rate of growth. No recession indication here: No recession here either: No sign of recession here: Markets are being driven by the understanding that the Fed will continue to raise rates until there is a recession, not realizing that rate increases, with ...Read More

CPI, Restaurants and airlines, optimism index

Gone flat since oil prices broke, and means that the strong nominal personal income growth becomes strong real income growth: Still negative but making a comeback even with the rate hikes: ...Read More

Unemployment claims, PMI services, mtg applications and lending

No sign of recession, and lots of indications the rate hikes that are adding to deficit spending as supporting the economy and prices, and not depressing them, and more rate hikes will only do more of same. And it doesn’t end until the Fed understands it has had it all backwards: This ...Read More

Employment, durable goods orders

No recession here either: Asymptotically approaching pre-Covid levels: Wage growth continues to lag (not cause) the growth rate of the CPI: Government had more employees under President Trump vs Presidents Obama and Biden? ;) This doesn’t look like a recession either: ...Read More

JOLTS, ISM manufacturing, fed funds rate

No recession yet, at least partially due to the increased federal deficit spending on interest payments as the Fed hikes rates: With debt/GDP the rate hikes have had the effect of about $500 billion/year of additional (highly regressive) federal deficit spending: ...Read More