PMC Donation Information

I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here. ...Read More

Trade, KC manufacturing index, Atlanta Fed, Ford

Higher than expected, and last month revised higher as well. And oil imports are increasing as output falls and consumption remains firm: More bad news doesn’t stop the KC Fed from calling for a rate hike: Highlights The good news didn’t last long for the Kansas City manufacturing index which, after popping ...Read More

Mtg apps, Durable goods orders, Pending home sales, Apple and Cat comments

Highlights Purchase applications for home mortgages were down 3.0 percent in the July 22 week following the previous week’s 2.0 percent decline, while refinancing applications, which tend to be even more sensitive to interest rates, fell a sharp 15.0 percent. The decrease brought the Purchase Index down to the lowest level since ...Read More

PMC, Oil prices

PMC ride August 5th and 6th coming up fast! First, thanks to all of you who’ve donated this year! For the rest, hoping you’ll dig deep and donate this year, which also means you stay on my otherwise free email list! ;) 100% of donations got to cancer research at Dana Farber- ...Read More

Redbook retail sales, Home price index, PMI services, New home sales, Consumer confidence, Richmond manufacturing index

Still down and out: NYC condo price index: Good report here for June, and may revised higher as well. However, no home is built without a permit, so new home sales end up at the same place as permits, and total permits aren’t looking so good. And note the level is still ...Read More

PMI, Commercial and Industrial loan growth, Japan trade

A bit better than expected, and the narrative sounds hopeful, but the chart still looking like there’s a long way to go to get back to where we were before the collapse of oil capex. And no sign of emergence of deficit spending- private or public- to drive top line growth: Looks ...Read More

Apartment market tightness, Chicago diffusion index, Equity flows, UK PMI and public sector deficit, Union Pacific

Looks like a bit of oversupply from new construction, and it didn’t take much of that, either, as construction has been well below prior cycles: “Apartment markets remain strong, but the surge of new apartment construction is starting to shift the supply-demand balance, particularly in the market for upscale apartments,” said Mark ...Read More

Architecture Billings Index, Teen employment

Going nowhere: Key June ABI highlights: Regional averages: South (55.5), West (54.1), Northeast (51.8), Midwest (48.2) Sector index breakdown: multi-family residential (57.9), institutional (52.7), mixed practice (51.0), commercial / industrial (50.3) Project inquiries index: 58.6 Design contracts index: 49.7 From the AIA: Architecture Billings Index remains on solid footing Buoyed by increasing ...Read More

Philly Fed, Chicago Fed, Existing home sales, NY state revenue report, Hamptons real estate sales

The setbacks continue: As is the general case, this indicator rose with the oil capex boom then peaked with the collapse in oil capex, and remains in negative territory: Same here. Peaked when the oil capex boom ended and the 3 month average is still in negative territory: A bit better than ...Read More

Mtg purchase apps, Gallup index, Euro area current account

Down again, and you can see from the chart that it’s most recently gone flat after ramping up a bit: Just another index that headed south after the collapse in oil capex: The euro area current account surplus continues to trend higher: Euro Area Current Account The current account surplus in the ...Read More

Housing starts, Redbook retail sales, Comments on low rates

Last month’s downward revision and the drop in permits make this report particularly negative. Again, looks like housing will be a drag on growth this year vs last year: Still trending from bad to worse: With the govt a net payer of interest, rate cuts reduce total interest income for the economy ...Read More