PMC Donation Information
Uncategorized
Aug 14, 2014
I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here.
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Consumer sentiment, new home sales, architecture billing index, light vehicle sales
Uncategorized
Jun 24, 2022
Settling in at pre-Covid levels, and the fiscal collapse depresses growth: Down, but still above 50: Still trending lower from the post-Covid fiscal collapse:
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Housing starts, sales managers index, mortgage purchase index, sales managers index
Uncategorized
Jun 22, 2022
After a post-Covid recovery spike, we have settled back to pre-Covid levels, which was well before the rate hikes: Applications have softened. This is the first up-week since the rate hikes: In many ways, we have yet to recover from the oil capex collapse of about 7 years ago:
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Philly Fed, labor demand, bank loans
Uncategorized
Jun 17, 2022
Manufacturing settling down to ‘neutral’ after peaking well before the rate hikes as post-Covid shortages are alleviated: Labor demand also peaked well before the rate hikes: Still no sign rate hikes have slowed lending ;)
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Housing starts, industrial production, small business index
Uncategorized
Jun 17, 2022
Growth overall remains sluggish as the economy becomes dependent on private sector credit expansion (private sector deficit spending) to offset the too tight post-Covid fiscal policy. Fed rate hikes add interest income to the economy as gov pays more interest on the $30+ trillion of public debt, which, if anything, supports rather
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Consumer sentiment, Federal receipts, CPI
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Jun 10, 2022
The post-Covid fiscal deficit reduction continues to take its toll: Higher prices automatically result in a spike in tax receipts: Higher prices, now largely from energy prices pushing up costs, reduce the inflation adjusted value of the public debt, which acts like a tax on the economy: With the rate of
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Employment, ISM services, vehicle sales, oil price
Uncategorized
Jun 04, 2022
Leveling off at approximately pre-Covid levels. The growth rate slowed as deficit spending dropped: Still in expansion but it has come way down with the post-Covid war. Drop in deficit spending that has been driving the general deceleration: Not looking good. The parts shortage is largely over, so it is about a
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Personal consumption and expenditures
Uncategorized
May 27, 2022
Pretty much back on the pre-Covid trend line: But income is on the decline: So consumers are spending more than their incomes, mainly through borrowing:
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Richmond Fed, unemployment claims, vehicle sales, Philly state coincident indicator
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May 26, 2022
Employment is still growing. Wages aren’t keeping up with prices so people are taking jobs out of necessity and to get healthcare: No sign of recession yet:
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Philly Fed Manufacturing, home sales, miles traveled
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May 19, 2022
Post-war collapse theme intact: Falling back to the pre-Covid war trend line: We’re back burning fuel with abandon:
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Retail sales, homebuilder sentiment, housing starts
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May 18, 2022
Not growing when adjusted for inflation: Down but still high vs historical data: Trend still intact: Trend still intact:
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