PMC Donation Information
Uncategorized
Aug 14, 2014
I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here.
...Read More
Housing starts, Euro trade, State budget shortfalls, Iowa farmland
Uncategorized
Dec 16, 2016
Housing remains depressed, and not the driver of US growth that had been forecast by most analysts: Highlights Housing starts are being hit by huge swings. November starts fell 18.7 percent in November to a much lower-than-expected 1.090 million annualized rate following an upward revised gain of 27.4 percent to 1.340 million
...Read More
CPI, Various surveys, Current account
Uncategorized
Dec 15, 2016
Fed still failing to hit its 2% target after years of trying, and after years of forecasting that it would hit its 2% target: Highlights Inflation at the consumer level remains low. The CPI rose 0.2 percent in November with the year-on-year rate up 1 tenth to plus 1.7 percent. The core
...Read More
Retail hiring, Yellen on fiscal, Rep Williams on Fed hike, Fx chart
Uncategorized
Dec 15, 2016
November 2016 Retail Hiring Falls To 6-Year Low Dec 13 (Econintersect) — Retailers added fewer workers through the first two-thirds of the typical holiday hiring period – and is down nearly 10% from a year ago. The latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that employment in retail grew
...Read More
Purchase apps, Retail sales, Industrial production, Inventoriese, Analyst comments
Uncategorized
Dec 14, 2016
Continues to decline. One less reason for the Fed to hike today… Highlights Rising interest rates continue to take their toll on mortgage activity, with purchase applications for home mortgages falling a seasonally adjusted 3.0 percent in the December 9 week, while refinancing applications fell 4.0 percent. The purchase index now stands
...Read More
Small business survey, McConnell, Redbook retail sales
Uncategorized
Dec 13, 2016
Nice Trumped up spike, led entirely by expectations the new President would make everything better, but even with that low by historical standards: Highlights The small business optimism index rose a sharp 3.5 points in November to 98.4, significantly exceeding expectations and posting the highest reading since May 2015. The NFIB said
...Read More
Oil comments, Trump talk
Uncategorized
Dec 12, 2016
At this point in time higher oil prices are an unambiguous negative for the US economy. The higher prices will drain low income consumer $, and while incomes for higher end consumers with oil related income will benefit, I don’t see them increasing spending as fast as the low end cuts back.
...Read More
Credit check
Uncategorized
Dec 11, 2016
The deceleration continues post election: Stress, this time and last time:
...Read More
Michigan survey, Inventories
Uncategorized
Dec 09, 2016
Post election euphoria? In any case, as per the chart, historically it doesn’t tend to stay this high for long: Highlights Post-election confidence continues to build, lifting consumer sentiment by more than 4 points to a 98.0 level that hits the very outside of the Econoday range and is 1 tenth away
...Read More
Saudi pricing and output
Uncategorized
Dec 08, 2016
No clear signal for what might come next with regard to the price of oil: Saudis set prices (above) and then let their clients buy all they want at the posted prices. The chart shows clients have been buying a bit more lately, but not anywhere near the Saudis currently presumed daily
...Read More
JOLTS, Consumer Credit, Soft Bank
Uncategorized
Dec 07, 2016
Looks a lot like the top looked back in 2007? Declining growth of consumer credit means credit driven spending isn’t adding as much to GDP this year as it did last year: Highlights Consumer credit keeps expanding including moderate and consistent gains for credit cards. Consumer credit outstanding rose $16.0 billion in
...Read More