PMC Donation Information

I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here. ...Read More

Durable goods orders, private payrolls

Familiar pattern, up a bit but still depressed What the President has been doing is expressing these moves up from the collapse in percentage terms, then stating the percentage gains are the largest ever, as indications that the economy is booming, etc. It’s either shameless spinning, or, worse, he actually believes it… ...Read More

Personal income and consumption

This shows the dependence on federal deficit spending to sustain incomes; Real personal consumption has collapsed-and particularly for services- far more than in 2008/09 even with the increase in personal income from the stimulus checks and enhanced unemployment compensation. A large part of the reason is that it isn’t safe to go ...Read More

Income, Consumption, Savings, Consumer loans, Real estate loans

So jobs and paychecks and profits were lost, but gov deficit spending more than made up for the lost personal income, but spending went down anyway, as personal savings went up. Then personal income fell back some, consumption increased some, and savings went down some. The $1,200 distribution was a one time ...Read More

GDP, Claims

Bad news on both fronts: ...Read More

Continuing claims, Durable goods orders, Air travel, Dining, Hotels, Gasoline

Not getting any better: Still at depressed levels, and these numbers are not inflation adjusted: ...Read More

Employment, Gasoline demand, Apartment market

...Read More

Architecture billings, Sales manager indexes, Claims

same pattern Up a bit from already very high levels: ...Read More

Chicago national survey, Existing home sales and prices

A bounce after the big dip but still at a very depressed level: A bounce but still way down: And home prices dropping: ...Read More

Confidence, Housing starts and permits, LA port traffic, GDP forecasts

This is about consumer spending plans which remain weak: Housing starts were depressed historically and going sideways before covid, and have subsequently weakened: Collapse in global trade continues: Not good: ...Read More

Industrial production, Fed report

Still way down after a small uptick last month, and it had already started fading with the tariffs that continue: ...Read More