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I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here. ...Read More

Credit check

See any reason not to panic? ;) ...Read More

Mortgage purchase index, Philly Fed, Apartment tightness

The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 1 percent lower than the same week one year ago. Trumped up expectations falling off: ...Read More

Industrial production, Housing starts, Forecasts, Loan growth

Very modest growth continues from the lows following the crash in oil capex, and note that the numbers are not inflation adjusted: The painfully slow recovery following the crash continues, and note the numbers are not population adjusted: Trumped up expectations fading: Forecasters Lower Growth Outlook as Hopes for Quick Stimulus Fade ...Read More

Retail sales, Bank loans, Philly state index

Worse than expected and downward revisions as well. Seems related to what looks like a continuing credit collapse: Highlights First-quarter consumer spending is in trouble. Retail sales fell 0.2 percent in March which is under the Econoday consensus for no change. Importantly, February sales are revised sharply lower, to minus 0.3 percent ...Read More

Healthcare, Regulation comments, Policy statement

Looks like no repeal and replace pending: I think Paul Ryan is trying to pull a fast one on repealing Obamacare On the surface, it looked like a GOP news conference touting a possible compromise with conservatives to help get the health-care reform bill passed. But House Speaker Paul Ryan and his ...Read More

Credit check, Consumer credit, Wholesale sales, Rail traffic

From bad to much worse: Highlights Consumer credit rose a nearly as-expected $15.2 billion in February with January revised $2.1 billion higher to $10.9 billion. Revolving credit perked up with a $2.9 billion gain following January’s $2.6 billion decline. Nonrevolving credit, which includes vehicle financing and also student loans, rose $12.3 billion ...Read More

Employment report, Atlanta Fed GDP forecast

Looking at the chart today’s number looks entirely consistent with the near linear rate of deceleration since oil capex collapsed about 2 1/2 years ago or so. And so far there’s no reason to expect the trend to reverse: Highlights Throw ADP out, it was the weather in March! Or at least ...Read More

Saudi pricing, Euro fx rate, Tooth fairy index, NY Times Trump interview

Looks like Saudis are moving to lower prices? Saudi Aramco Said to Cut Pricing For May Arab Light Oil to Asia By Serene Cheong and Sharon Cho Apr 5 (Bloomberg) — Saudi Aramco sets Arab Light crude differential at 45c/bbl discount to Oman-Dubai benchmark for May sales to Asia, say people with ...Read More

ADP employment, PMI services, ISM services

Higher than expected but last month was revised down by 53,000 (and same could happen of course for this month). And this is just a forecast for the Friday jobs report, not a hard number. Also note that as per the chart the annual growth rate has been declining and it’s too ...Read More

Trade, Manufacturing new orders, Redbook retail sales, GDP forecasts

The trade deficit was a bit less than expected, all due to lower imports. The question is whether this means there were more domestic purchases, whether this is an indicator of lower aggregate demand: Highlights In favorable news for first-quarter GDP, the nation’s trade gap hit Econoday’s low estimate in February at ...Read More