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I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here. ...Read More

Employment revision, US pmi, KC Fed, Archetecture index, German PMI, Australia PMI, Trump comments

Employment growth has been revised substantially lower. Note that one of the inputs used for estimating monthly employment is data from the weekly jobless claims report, which I had suggested would be misleading due to claims being made substantially harder to get over the last several years. Employment: Preliminary annual benchmark revision ...Read More

Mtg apps, Existing home sales, Freight, Germany, Greenland

Highlights The surge in refinancing is easing as the related index, after spiking 37.0 and 12.0 percent in the two prior weeks, rose only 0.4 percent in the August 16 week. Yet rates did move lower in the week, down another 3 basis points to 3.90 percent for conventional 30-year loans and ...Read More

Japan exports, RV sales, Tariff delays

Japan Exports Fall for 8th Month Exports from Japan dropped 1.6 percent from a year earlier to JPY 6.64 trillion in July 2019, the eighth straight month of decrease and compared to market expectations of 2.2 percent fall, amid weakening global demand and the US-China trade dispute. An Economic Warning Sign: RV ...Read More

Inventory/sales ratio, PMI’s, Housing starts, Consumer Sentiment

Still elevated: Not looking good: Starts down and rolling over, permits up for the month but still trending lower, as per the charts: Highlights A slow turn upward is the indication from a mixed but still positive housing starts and permits report for July, headlined by a much lower-than-expected rate for starts ...Read More

Industrial production, Retail sales, Housing index, NY manufacturing, Trump comments

Tariffs doing their thing to the US economy: Highlights A jump in utility output couldn’t save industrial production in July which, pressured by contraction in both manufacturing and also mining, came in near the low end of Econoday’s consensus range with a 0.2 percent decline. Utilities, where production is affected by the ...Read More

Germany, Euro IP, China

German Economy Contracts in Q2 as Exports Fall Germany’s gross domestic product contracted by a seasonally-adjusted 0.1 percent on quarter in the three months to June 2019, following a 0.4 percent expansion in the previous period and matching market expectations, a preliminary estimate showed. Net external demand contributed negatively to the GDP, ...Read More

Tariff delay, Foreign US home buyers, Euro area ZEW

You can’t make this stuff up… So the problem is Americans might not buy Chinese products? Trump says he delayed tariffs because of concerns over Christmas shopping season ...Read More

China news, CNBC small business survey

China Vehicle Sales Fall for 13th Month Vehicles sales in China decreased 4.3 percent from a year earlier in July 2019, the 13th consecutive month of decline, as the economy slows further amid the trade spat with the US. Sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) tumbled 4.7 percent to 80,000 units, the ...Read More

Auto sales, Auto cutbacks, Central bank gold buying

Peaked a few years ago and trending lower: BEA: July Vehicles Sales decreased to 16.8 Million SAAR The BEA released their estimate of July vehicle sales on Tuesday. The BEA estimated sales of 16.82 million SAAR in July 2019 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 1.8% from the June sales rate, and down ...Read More

Air freight, Rails, Oil and Gas, Morgan Stanley index, Semi sales

Rail Week Ending 03 August 2019: July Down 6.1% Oil related capex never recovered to prior levels and is now in decline: Down some more: ...Read More