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I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here. ...Read More

Mtg prch apps, PMI services

Not a word from the analysts when they were down 6% last week. But when up 5% this week expect lots of mentions… MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights Purchase applications for home mortgages revived in the May 20 week, increasing by 5 percent from the prior week, while refinancing activity managed to post ...Read More

Redbook retail sales, Richmond Fed, New home sales, Chemical activity barometer

From bad to worse: Another May reversal from a hopeful April gain: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Highlights The Richmond Fed index fell a sharp 15 points in May to minus 1, adding further evidence of a serious slowdown in manufacturing activity as also indicated in last week’s Empire State and Philly Fed ...Read More

Japan trade, Rail week, Medicare payments

Imports and exports down, as global trade continues to wind down. And the trade surplus remains yen friendly. However intervention will likely prevent any material yen appreciation: Rail Again Moves Deeper Into Contraction Week 19 of 2016 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) declined according to ...Read More

Existing home sales, EU current account surplus, Tech IPO’s

A bit higher than expected now been going sideways for almost a year: Existing Home Sales Euro Area current account surplus continues to zig zag it’s way higher: Euro Area Current Account Eurozone current account surplus came in at €32.3 billion in March of 2016 compared to an upwardly revised €11.2 billion ...Read More

Philly Fed, Chicago Fed

Back into contraction after a blip up in April: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey Highlights After popping higher in March the Philly Fed index has been dead flat since, at minus 1.6 in April and now minus 1.8 for May to point to slight contraction in the Mid-Atlantic manufacturing sector. After jumping ...Read More

Mtg purchase apps, Gas prices, Greek debt, Euro area trade and inflation, Oil prices

Another setback for those grasping for straws looking for housing to lead a recovery: MBA Mortgage Applications Gas prices up enough to hurt consumers, but not enough boost oil capex. You might say it’s in the ‘sour spot’: Again, for all practical purposes this IS full debt forgiveness, and something Greece has ...Read More

CPI, Housing starts, Redbook retail sales, E commerce retail sales, Industrial production, NY Fed and Atlanta Fed forecasts

Still below the Fed’s target and ‘core’ moving down a bit year over year: Consumer Price Index Housing starts better than expected, permits up a bit and last month’s revised down a bit. And, of course, no house legally gets built without a prior permit and the chart isn’t looking promising: Housing ...Read More

Empire Survey, Home builder index, Abe on G7

Not good. Raises the specter of May having weakened after some April numbers were looking a bit better: Empire State Mfg Survey Highlights What little momentum there was in the New York manufacturing sector is fizzling, based on the Empire State index which came in much weaker-than-expected, at minus 9.02 in the ...Read More

Tax receipts, Retail sales control group, Consumer sentiment

Weak U.S. tax receipts suggest things are not so good for the U.S. consumer even as employment continues to grow, Deutsche Bank Chief U.S. Economist Joseph LaVorgna said Monday.The three-month moving average for U.S. jobs gains remains “good” at around 200,000 positions per month, but growth in tax receipts has fallen from ...Read More

Retail sales, Consumer sentiment, Euro lending, Rail week

Better than expected and some upward revisions as well. Retail Sales Highlights The consumer snapped back to life in April, driving retail sales 1.3 percent higher to beat Econoday’s consensus by 4 tenths and the high estimate by 1 tenth. Gains are spread throughout most of the report. Autos are the key ...Read More