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I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here. ...Read More

Inventories, Payrolls, Trade

This is getting out of control. Sales are slowing faster than inventories are being sold. A weak print and year over year growth continues to decelerate as per the chart: Employment Situation Highlights Headline weakness masks an otherwise solid employment report for January. Nonfarm payrolls rose 151,000 vs expectations for 188,000. December ...Read More

China and Russia buying gold

Seems it’s always a central bank story. Goes up when they buy, down when they sell. Furthermore gold buying is supported by how it’s accounted for. That is, it doesn’t count as deficit spending or part of the pubic debt, even though the ‘taxpayer’ has to pay interest on the funds spent, ...Read More

Productivity, Factory orders,Truck orders

As previously discussed, the numbers are showing that business is hiring more than output is increasing, which doesn’t seem to make sense to me. That is, it wouldn’t surprise me to see this reconciled by a drop in hiring, or a downward revision to employment in general. Productivity and Costs Highlights Flat ...Read More

Mtg purchase apps, Car sales comments, ADP, ISM services, Exxon capex, BOJ comment

Up last week now back down as this sector remains in prolonged depression: MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights The purchase index has been posting outsized gains this year but not in the January 29 week, falling 7.0 percent. The refinance index, however, did post a gain in the week, up 0.3 percent. Low ...Read More

Car sales, Redbook retail sales, Bank loans

This is being spun as a positive, when all I see is a chart showing the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales peaked several months ago and is going down: U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 17.46 million annual rate in January Based on an estimate from WardsAuto, light vehicle sales were at ...Read More

Personal income and spending, ISM manufacturing, construction spending

Spending still not good, and GDP *is* spending. Personal income growth remains low, but is higher than spending. I suspect this gets reconciled with downward revisions to income over time, perhaps due to downward revisions to employment. With GDP growth near flat employment growth implies more employees are being hired to produce ...Read More

Japan, China, Fed comment, Capex cutbacks, South Korea

This is the yen yield curve after over 20 years of a 0 rate policy, massive QE, and now negative overnight rates. Maybe now the economy will finally respond. :( (And how good can the BOJ think the economy is?) The western educated kids/monetarists who’ve taken control don’t seem to be doing ...Read More

GDP, Saudi oil production, KC Fed, Chicago PMI, Shale Italy and Japan comments

As expected, the deceleration continues, and over the next couple of years it wouldn’t surprise me if the entire year gets revised down substantially: GDP Highlights Consumer spending is the central driver of the economy but is slowing, at least it was during the fourth quarter when GDP rose only at a ...Read More

Economic Index, Storefronts, Fed statement, Pending home sales, Durable goods orders

Also tracing the weakness back to the oil capex collapse: Econintersect’s Economic Index declined and is barely positive – and still remains at the lowest value since the end of the Great Recession. The tracked sectors of the economy which showed growth were mostly offset by the sectors in contraction. Our economic ...Read More

Mtg purchase apps, Vehicle sales, Oil capex, Business equipment borrowing, Equipment sales, New home sales

Inching up a bit but still seriously depressed: MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights Weekly mortgage applications have been very volatile so far this year but mostly to the upside. Purchase applications jumped 5.0 percent in the January 22 week with refinancing applications up 11.0 percent. Low mortgage rates are driving the activity, down ...Read More