Some 5 years ago when the talk was about whether the US recovery was going to be V shaped or U shaped, I suggested that it would be more L shaped, as a 0 rate policy requires a larger deficit, etc. That is, after a sharp fall it would go sideways.

Here are a few illustrative charts:

Adjusting this next one for population growth makes the point even more:

The growth rate of personal consumption has leveled off at over half of prior cycles:

And looks like deep down ‘those demon banks’ haven’t fared all that well either: