And the risk is we may be more path dependent than most realize with the deficit this low. That is, for example, if income dips due to ‘weakness’ such as weather, there is then that much less income to spend in the next period.

>   
>   (email exchange)
>   
>   In the race to see who can revise their Q1 estimates the lowest, I think Nomura is in the
>   lead so far at -2.4%…
>   

Nomura Economists revise down First Quarter US GDP to -2.4%

Incorporating relevant information from Quarterly Service Survey which was released today, we revised down our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by a full percentage point to -2.4% from -1.4%. Personal consumption on services was much weaker than BEA has assumed. We haven’t revised Q2 GDP tracking estimate because we don’t know how the montyly profile of personal consumption for Q1 will be revised in reaction to QSS. That being said, the fact that personal consumption lost some traction in Q1 appears to be negative.