Confidence up but still at levels typical of prior recessions, and note regression analysis.

And seems to lag the Optimism index?

Karim responds:

What matters is the rate of change, not the index level. Have been in recession at 120 level on the index and have had 4% growth at 50.
Same reason why you we can have rate cuts priced at 5.5% unemployment (if coming from 4%) and rate hikes priced in at 7.5% (if coming from 10%).
 

When it comes to the Fed’s reaction function, don’t fight Karim!!!!