Karim says:


  • Labor Dept cites delayed filings in 4 states (Georgia, Alabama, North and South Carolina) as cause for 51k back-up in claims.
  • Those states probably depressed prior number, so current level likely closer to 420k; consistent with 150-200k gains in payrolls


  • Core capital goods orders rise 1.4% in December after 3.1% gain prior month; running at 9% at a 3mth annualized rate
  • Core shipments up 1.7% after 1.4% gain
  • Core shipments and core orders both revised higher for October and November


  • See notable upside risk to Q4 GDP tomorrow. Consensus 3.5%.
    Focus appears too much on inventory drag (which will be large) and not enough on contribution from net trade and these capex revisions.
  • Could see 5% print tomorrow.