No telling which way the Obama administration will go.
Probably the middle path which will mean muddling through with high, repressive output gaps
that do the most damage to their own constituency.
It’s not a bad environment for stocks, the near term risk remaing a strong dollar that reduces translations of foreign earnings and
softens exports, while reduced personal income (including a large drop in net interest income) keeps consumption relatively low.
7 deadly innocent frauds updated draft:
Link
Gov’t Spending Is Like Tiger’s Dating
By Jim Rogers
Dec. 11 (CNBC) — The U.S. government’s plan to increase spending as a way to kick-start the economy will leave the country with no way to help its way out of the next crisis, Jim Rogers, chairman of Jim Rogers Holdings, told CNBC Thursday.
The Treasury Department “has been putting out all of this stimulus and now they’re talking about extending the (Troubled Asset Relief Program),” Rogers said.
On Thursday Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner announced TARP would be extended into next year in part to free up public money for job creation, but also as insurance against another crisis.
Geithner “is a very smart person,” but “he’s been wrong about everything for the last 15 years,” Rogers said.
“Why are we listening to any of those guys down there? They’re making our situation worse,” he said. “They said in writing yesterday the solution to our problem is to spend more money … that’s what got us into this problem: too much debt.”
“That’s like saying to Tiger Woods, ‘you get another girlfriend and it will solve your problems’ or ‘five more girlfriends and you will solve your problems,'” he said.
“We’re all going to pay the price for this in, one, two, three years,” Rogers added. “The next time that we have problems in the economy, which will not be too long, we don’t have any bullets left. We’ve shot everything we had to solve our problems.”
“What are they going to do, quadruple the debt again? Print more money? We don’t have any trees left. We’re running out of trees.”
Long the Dollar, but Likely to Lose Money
Looking to his investment positions, Rogers said he is betting on the dollar more than he has been in two to three months, but that his short-term trades rarely work out.
“I am sure I’m going to lose money because whenever I try to short-term trade I almost always nearly lose money, so I am sure I deserve to lose money for trying it again,” he said.
The reason he thinks there might be rally in the greenback is that everybody — including himself — is pessimistic on the currency, Rogers said.
Rogers also predicted a currency crisis or semi-crisis.
“You already see Vietnam devalued. Last week Brazil put on the special taxes for currencies,” he said. “You’re seeing what’s happening in Dubai. Greece is in trouble. Ukraine, Argentina; there are plenty of people who we could put on the list. Spain. Ireland.”
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