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Karim writes:

Data ‘mixed’, with durables and income weak, but claims strong.

  • New capital goods orders ex-aircraft and defense -2.9%; 3rd drop in 4mths
  • Personal income 0.2%, but wage and salary income flat and down 3.6% y/y
  • Core PCE deflator +0.2% m/m and 1.4% y/y
  • Initial claims down 35k to 466k (prior week revised down 4k)
  • Continuing claims down 190k; extended and emergency benefits down 18k
  • Some seasonals may be at play in the claims data from now thru year-end but still opens possibility of positive payrolls next week


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