More evidence the Eurozone economy will lag the rest of the world
by Bertrand Benoit
May 29 (FT) —The next German government is almost certain to crack down on spending and drastically raise taxes after the lower house of parliament yesterday adopted measures that come close to banning budget deficits beyond 2016.
The controversial constitutional amendment, part of a reform of federal institutions, will prohibit Germanyâ€™s 16 regional governments from running fiscal deficits and limit the structural deficit of the federal government to 0.35 per cent of gross domestic product.
The amendment still requires approval by a two-thirds majority of the upper house of parliament which represents the regions. The vote is scheduled to take place on July 12 and is expected to be approved.
The most sweeping reform of public finances in 40 years was an â€œeconomic policy decision of historic proportionsâ€, Peer SteinbrÃ¼ck, finance minister, told parliament shortly before MPs endorsed the amendment with the required two-thirds majority.
The vote underlines Berlinâ€™s determination quickly to plug the holes that the economic crisis, two fiscal stimulus packages and a â‚¬500bn ($706bn, Â£437bn) rescue operation for German banks are expected to blow in the public coffers this year and next.
In 2009 alone, legislators from the ruling coalition expect the federal budget to show a deficit of more than â‚¬80bn, twice the current all-time record of â‚¬40bn reached in 1996 as Germany was absorbing the formidable costs of its reunification.
This figure does not include the deficit of the social security system, which is expected to rocket too, as unemployment rises to an expected 5m next year.
The constitutional amendment, popularly known as the â€œdebt brakeâ€, allows a degree of flexibility in tough economic times, just as it encourages governments to build cash reserves in good times.
Yet economists have warned the new rules could force the next government to implement a ruthless fiscal crackdown as soon as it takes office after the general election of September 27 if it is serous about hitting the 2016 deficit target.
â€œGiven the massive fiscal expansion we are currently seeing, the â€˜debt brakeâ€™ will lead to a significant tightening of fiscal policy in the coming years,â€ Dirk Schumacher, economist at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a note.
In a separate assessment, the Cologne-based IfW economic institute said the federal government would need to save â‚¬10bn a year until 2015 through a mixture of tax rises and spending cuts.
Klaus Zimmermann, president of the DIW economic institute in Berlin, said the next government might have to increase value added tax by six points to 25 per cent. This would be the biggest tax rise in German history.
The â€œdebt brakeâ€ could complicate Angela Merkelâ€™s re-election bid. Under pressure from parts of her Christian Democratic Union, the chancellor recently pledged to cut taxes if returned to office in September, though she pointedly failed to put a date on her promise.
The Free Democratic party, the CDUâ€™s traditional ally, has made hefty income tax cuts a key condition for forming a coalition with Ms Merkelâ€™s party should the two jointly obtain more than 50 per cent of the votes.
The debate has cut a deep rift within the CDU, which was threatening to deepen further yesterday as opponents of tax cuts seized on the constitutional change to back their arguments.
GÃ¼nther Oettinger, the CDU state premier of Baden Wurttemberg, said â€œpromises of broad tax cuts are unrealisticâ€¦ First we must overcome the crisis, then we need more robust growth, and when we finally get more tax revenues, we should use them to repay debt, finance core state activities and for limited, very targeted tax cuts.â€