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Karim writes:
Falling wage and salary income and rising savings rate continuing to take a toll on consumer spending.
Recent pick-up in gas prices also likely hurting discretionary spending.
- April retail sales -0.4% and -0.5% ex-autos (expectations +0.2%)
- March ex-autos revised from -0.9% to -1.2%
- April, Ex-gas, -0.2%
- April, Control group (feeds into PCE component of GDP), -0.3%
- Need a very sharp rebound in May/June to prevent Q2 PCE from being negative due to combined March/April weakness.
- Downside risks to Q2 GDP now as low as -5%
Import prices up 1.6%, -0.4% ex-petroleum and -0.5% from China
![2009-05-13 MBA Mortgage Applications](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2009/05/2009-05-13-mba-mortgage-applications-small.gif)
![click for larger graph](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Zoom_In.gif)
![click for description](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Info.gif)
MBA Mortgage Applications (May 8)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
-8.6% |
Prior |
2.0% |
Revised |
n/a |
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![2009-05-13 MBA Purchasing Applications](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2009/05/2009-05-13-mba-purchasing-applications-small.gif)
![click for larger graph](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Zoom_In.gif)
![click for description](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Info.gif)
MBA Purchasing Applications (May 8)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
265.70 |
Prior |
264.30 |
Revised |
n/a |
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![2009-05-13 MBA Refinancing Applications](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2009/05/2009-05-13-mba-refinancing-applications-small.gif)
![click for larger graph](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Zoom_In.gif)
![click for description](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Info.gif)
MBA Refinancing Applications (May 8)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
4588.60 |
Prior |
5169.30 |
Revised |
n/a |
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![2009-05-13 Bloomberg Global Confidence](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2009/05/2009-05-13-bloomberg-global-confidence-small.gif)
![click for larger graph](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Zoom_In.gif)
![click for description](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Info.gif)
Bloomberg Global Confidence (May)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
38.72 |
Prior |
21.20 |
Revised |
n/a |
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![2009-05-13 Import Price Index MoM](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2009/05/2009-05-13-import-price-index-mom-small.gif)
![click for larger graph](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Zoom_In.gif)
![click for description](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Info.gif)
Import Price Index MoM (Apr)
Survey |
0.6% |
Actual |
1.6% |
Prior |
0.5% |
Revised |
0.2% |
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![2009-05-13 Import Price Index YoY](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2009/05/2009-05-13-import-price-index-yoy-small.gif)
![click for larger graph](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Zoom_In.gif)
![click for description](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Info.gif)
Import Price Index YoY (Apr)
Survey |
-16.8% |
Actual |
-16.3% |
Prior |
-14.9% |
Revised |
-15.3% |
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![2009-05-13 Import Price Index ALLX 1](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2009/05/2009-05-13-import-price-index-allx-1-small.gif)
![click for larger graph](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Zoom_In.gif)
![click for description](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Info.gif)
Import Price Index ALLX 1 (Apr)
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![2009-05-13 Import Price Index ALLX 2](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2009/05/2009-05-13-import-price-index-allx-2-small.gif)
![click for larger graph](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Zoom_In.gif)
![click for description](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Info.gif)
Import Price Index ALLX 2 (Apr)
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![2009-05-13 Advance Retail Sales MoM](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2009/05/2009-05-13-advance-retail-sales-mom-small.gif)
![click for larger graph](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Zoom_In.gif)
![click for description](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Info.gif)
Advance Retail Sales MoM (Apr)
Survey |
0.0% |
Actual |
-0.4% |
Prior |
-1.1% |
Revised |
-1.3% |
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![2009-05-13 Advance Retail Sales YoY](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2009/05/2009-05-13-advance-retail-sales-yoy-small.gif)
![click for larger graph](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Zoom_In.gif)
![click for description](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Info.gif)
Advance Retail Sales YoY (Apr)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
-10.1% |
Prior |
-9.6% |
Revised |
n/a |
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![2009-05-13 Retail Sales Less Autos](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2009/05/2009-05-13-retail-sales-less-autos-small.gif)
![click for larger graph](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Zoom_In.gif)
![click for description](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Info.gif)
Retail Sales Less Autos (Apr)
Survey |
0.2% |
Actual |
-0.5% |
Prior |
-0.9% |
Revised |
-1.2% |
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![2009-05-13 Business Inventories MoM](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2009/05/2009-05-13-business-inventories-mom-small.gif)
![click for larger graph](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Zoom_In.gif)
![click for description](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Info.gif)
Business Inventories MoM (Mar)
Survey |
-1.1% |
Actual |
-1.0% |
Prior |
-1.3% |
Revised |
-1.4% |
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![2009-05-13 Business Inventories YoY](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2009/05/2009-05-13-business-inventories-yoy-small.gif)
![click for larger graph](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Zoom_In.gif)
![click for description](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Info.gif)
Business Inventories YoY (Mar)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
-4.8% |
Prior |
-3.6% |
Revised |
n/a |
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