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Even as spot crude prices remain low, and the front contango extreme, RBOB (unleaded gasoline) has been steadily moving up, and the crack spread widening substantially.

This fits with anecdotal reports of gasoline consumption remaining reasonably firm with year over year declines under 4%.

It’s not going to take much of a recovery to give the Saudis cover to get crude prices back up to whatever price they want them to be.