2008-12-16 USER

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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Dec 16)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.40%
Prior 0.40%
Revised n/a

 
Continues to move lower.

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Dec 16)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.60%
Prior -0.80%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Dec 9)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.80%
Prior -0.40%
Revised n/a

 
Continues to move lower.

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Dec 9)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.40%
Prior -1.10%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Dec 9)

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Consumer Price Index MoM (Nov)

Survey -1.3%
Actual -1.7%
Prior -1.0%
Revised n/a

 

Karim writes:

  • Headline CPI dropped 1.7% M/M in November after 1.0% decline last month (Y/Y now at +1.1%)

  • Core was flat in November after 0.1% decline (Y/Y at 2.0% and 3 month annualized at 0.4%… core is decelerating quickly and inflation certainly not a concern for Fed at this point)

  • OER was up 0.3% M/M, but partly due to a decline in utility prices that increases economic rents

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CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Nov)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.0%
Prior -0.1%
Revised n/a

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Consumer Price Index YoY (Nov)

Survey 1.5%
Actual 1.1%
Prior 3.7%
Revised n/a

 
Way down, as crude oil and gasoline are lower than they were last year.

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CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Nov)

Survey 2.1%
Actual 2.0%
Prior 2.2%
Revised n/a

 
Core drifting lower though owner equivalent rent went up .30% as utility costs fell and rents stayed about the same.

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CPI Core Index SA (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual 216.849
Prior 216.801
Revised n/a

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Consumer Price Index NSA (Nov)

Survey 212.699
Actual 212.425
Prior 216.573
Revised n/a

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Consumer Price Index TABLE 1 (Nov)

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Consumer Price Index TABLE 2 (Nov)

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Consumer Price Index TABLE 3 (Nov)

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Housing Starts (Nov)

Survey 763K
Actual 625K
Prior 791K
Revised 771K

 
Keeps falling as the headlines have the public and financial institutions scared stiff.

Karim writes:

  • Housing Starts dropped to 625k in November (record low with about 50 years of data!) from 771k last month and 1,179k last year (this should put more downward pressure on residential investment in GDP through early 2009)

  • Permits dropped to 616k in November (record low with about 50 years of data!) from 730k last month and 1,111k last year

  • Token “Sliver” lining- less pressure on inventories from new homes

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Building Permits (Nov)

Survey 700K
Actual 616K
Prior 708K
Revised 730K

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