- Personal Income MoM (Released 8:30 EST)
- Personal Income YoY (Released 8:30 EST)
- Personal Income ALLX (Released 8:30 EST)
- Personal Consumption MoM (Released 8:30 EST)
- Personal Consumption YoY (Released 8:30 EST)
- PCE Deflator YoY (Released 8:30 EST)
- PCE Core MoM (Released 8:30 EST)
- PCE Core YoY (Released 8:30 EST)
Personal Income MoM (Aug)
| Survey | 0.2% |
| Actual | 0.5% |
| Prior | -0.7% |
| Revised | -0.6% |
Better than expected and prior month revised up a tenth. Fiscal packages don’t fade as quickly as the mainstream guesses.
Personal Income YoY (Aug)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 4.6% |
| Prior | 4.5% |
| Revised | n/a |
Good enough to keep GDP muddling through, though the financial crisis could slow spending down some.
Personal Income ALLX (Aug)
Personal Consumption MoM (Aug)
| Survey | 0.2% |
| Actual | 0.0% |
| Prior | 0.2% |
| Revised | 0.1% |
Less than expected even though income holding up, and prior revised up a tenth. Income in excess of spending doesn’t usually persist.
Personal Consumption YoY (Aug)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 4.6% |
| Prior | 4.9% |
| Revised | n/a |
On the soft side and continuing its gradual decline.
PCE Deflator YoY (Aug)
| Survey | 4.5% |
| Actual | 4.5% |
| Prior | 4.5% |
| Revised | 4.6% |
As expected and too high for Fed comfort.
PCE Core MoM (Aug)
| Survey | 0.2% |
| Actual | 0.2% |
| Prior | 0.3% |
| Revised | n/a |
Remains firm.
PCE Core YoY (Aug)
| Survey | 2.4% |
| Actual | 2.6% |
| Prior | 2.4% |
| Revised | 2.5% |
Higher than expected, prior revised up a tenth, and looks to be breaking out. Not encouraging for the Fed. They want it below 2.0%.
Karim writes:
- Nominal PCE unchanged in August after two consecutive declines.
- Real consumer spending tracking -2.0% (annualized) thus far in Q3.
- Inventory rebound should keep GDP positive in Q3.
- Core deflator up 0.2% m/m and 2.6% y/y.
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