2008-07-31 US Economic Releases

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GDP QoQ Annualized (2Q A)

Survey 2.3%
Actual 1.9%
Prior 1.0%
Revised 0.9%

Less than expected, and helped by a low deflator, but up nonetheless with government and exports leading the charge.

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GDP Price Index (2Q A)

Survey 2.4%
Actual 1.1%
Prior 2.7%
Revised 2.6%

big drop in the headline deflator – need to wait for next quarter to see if it’s reversed.

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GDP ALLX (2Q A)

From Cesar:

GDP:

  • grew 1.9% below expectations of 2.3%
  • rebates helped consumption grow 1.5% for 1.08% contribution to growth
  • net exports added 2.42% to growth
  • inventories were drag of 1.92%
  • residential investment was down -15.6% after declining 25.1% last month and the drag was “only” .62% after subtracting over 1% from GDP the last 3 quarters…
    housing drag on GDP will diminish as decline decelerates and housing shrinks as % of total GDP

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Personal Consumption (2Q A)

Survey 1.7%
Actual 1.5%
Prior 1.1%
Revised 0.9%

Less than expected but turning up.

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Core PCE QoQ (2Q A)

Survey 2.0%
Actual 2.1%
Prior 2.3%
Revised n/a

Worse than expected and still looks to be working its way higher over time.

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Personal Consumption ALLX 1 (2Q A)

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Personal Consumption ALLX 2 (2Q A)

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Employment Cost Index (2Q)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 0.7%
Prior 0.7%
Revised n/a

As expected

Look to import prices as an indication of foreign employment costs of what we consume. They are rising rapidly.

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Employment Cost Index ALLX (2Q)

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Initial Jobless Claims (Jul 26)

Survey 393K
Actual 448K
Prior 406K
Revised 404K

Higher than expected, and indicate next month might be a tougher job environment.

4 week average approaching 400,000.

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Continuing Jobless Claims (Jul 19)

Survey 3150K
Actual 3282K
Prior 3107K
Revised 3097K

Not looking good at all. No sign of retreat yet.

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Jul 26)

From Cesar:
Initial and continuing claims:

jump to new cycle highs of 448k and 3,282k, respectively (no special factors noted)
the weakness in this real-time indicator seems to tell us more about current state of economy than today’s GDP reports or tomorrow’s payrolls…

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Chicago Purchasing Manager (Jul)

Survey 49.0
Actual 50.8
Prior 49.6
Revised n/a

Higher than expected.

Prices paid remains very high.

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Chicago Purchasing Manager ALLX (Jul)

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NAPM-Milwaukee (Jul)

Survey 43.5
Actual 44.0
Prior 39.0
Revised n/a

Higher then expected.

Prices paid remain very high.

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NAPM-Milwaukee ALLX (Jul)


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