2008-07-11 US Economic Releases

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Trade Balance (May)

Survey -$62.5B
Actual -$59.8B
Prior -$60.9B
Revised -$60.5B

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Trade Balance (May)

Seems to be working its way lower, but rising import prices are a moving target.
Without CBs and monetary authorities buying to help their exporters, I don’t think the rest of the world wants to accumulate $60 billion a month of financial assets, which means the USD will continue to fall and US prices will continue higher until the real trade gap falls to desired levels.

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Trade Balance Ex Petroleum (May)

Survey n/a
Actual -$26.636B
Prior -$25.724B
Revised n/a

This has come down quite a bit and should continue to fall over time.

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Exports YoY (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 17.8%
Prior 19.6%
Revised n/a

Booming!

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Imports YoY (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 12.5%
Prior 13.6%
Revised n/a

Working their way to lower rates of increase, even with energy prices rising.

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Import Price Index MoM (Jun)

Survey 2.0%
Actual 2.6%
Prior 2.3%
Revised 2.6%

‘Inflation’ pouring in through the open window.

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Import Price Index YoY (Jun)

Survey 18.6%
Actual 20.5%
Prior 17.8%
Revised 18.8%

Inflation pouring in through the open window.

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U. of Michigan Confidence (Jul P)

Survey 55.5
Actual 56.6
Prior 56.4
Revised –

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U. of Michigan Confidence TABLE (Jul P)

Inflation hurting confidence even as current conditions have improved some.

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Inflation Expectations 1yr Fwd (Jul P)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.3%
Prior 5.1%
Revised n/a

Fed considers this reason for alarm.

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Inflation Expectations 5y Fwd (Jul P)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.4%
Prior 3.4%
Revised n/a

Way too high for the Fed and going the wrong way.

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Monthly Budget Statement (Jun)

Survey $34.0B
Actual $50.7B
Prior $27.5B
Revised n/a

Haven’t seen the detail. This can be very volatile due to timing issues.


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