Advance Retail Sales (Mar)
| Survey | 0.0% |
| Actual | 0.2% |
| Prior | -0.6% |
| Revised | -0.4% |
Retail Sales Less Autos (Mar)
| Survey | 0.1% |
| Actual | 0.1% |
| Prior | -0.2% |
| Revised | -0.1% |
Retail Sales YoY
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 2.0% |
| Prior | 2.9% |
| Revised | n/a |
Down, but not yet at ‘traditional’ recession levels, particularly with exports as strong as they are.
Retail Sales TABLE
From Karim:
Recent trend intact and in line with confidence surveys:
Nominal gwth zero for Q1 consumer spending
- March retail sales +0.2%, +0.1% ex-autos, 0.0% ex-gas, and +0.2% for control group (autos, gas, and building materials)
- Building materials down 1.6% shows housing decline continues to exert impact
- Following items also negative: electronics -0.4%, furniture -0.3%, clothing -0.5%. Food +0.4% and gas +1.1%, lead the way.
- Despite minor upward revision to February, 3mth annualized rate of change 0.0% for overall retail sales and -2.2% for retail sales ex-gas.
Business Inventories (Feb)
| Survey | 0.6% |
| Actual | 0.6% |
| Prior | 0.8% |
| Revised | 0.9% |
Business Inventories YoY
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 5.2 |
| Prior | 4.9 |
| Revised | n/a |
Inventories still very low for a recession, if we are in one.