On 12/7/07, Karim Basta wrote:
>
>
> NFP +94k
> Net revisions -48k, with Sep revised from 96k to 44k (lowest mthly gain
> since 2/04)But October revised up to 170,000, indicating Sep the low so far, and
> improvement since then. And the Fed surely remember Sep 11 meeting
> where the Aug employment number was reported down and later revised to
> a relatively strong up number.
> UE rate down from 4.727% to 4.658%
And the Fed is concerned a falling labor force participation rate due to demographics means labor tightening with fewer new jobs.
> Most important to me was the diffusion index dropping below 50 (more
> industries losing jobs than gaining jobs) for the first time since Sep 2003
Yes, but only just below to 49.8 from 53.
> Retail job change from -15k to +24k looks suspect and reflective of poor
> seasonal adjustment factor;likely borrowing heavily from Dec job gwth
> Index of aggregate hours up 0.1% and avg hrly earnings up 0.5% (off a low
> 0.2% last mth)
Might result in Fed upward revisions for q4 gdp?
>
> Base case for next week is -25bps on FF and -50bps on DR.
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov)
| Survey | 80K |
| Actual | 94K |
| Prior | 166K |
| Revised | 170K |
Better than forecasting, and jobs being added about as fast as the fed thinks possible given fed perception of current demographics – no slack evident. Sept revised down and October up to 170,000 so the chart looks fine.
Unemployment Rate (Nov)
| Survey | 4.8% |
| Actual | 4.7% |
| Prior | 4.7% |
| Revised | n/a |
Better than forecast, and still well below the fed’s ‘unspoken’ concern that anything below 5% is more than non-inflationary full employment level.
Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Nov)
| Survey | -15K |
| Actual | -11K |
| Prior | -21K |
| Revised | -15K |
Average Hourly Earnings MoM
| Survey | 0.3% |
| Actual | 0.5% |
| Prior | 0.2% |
| Revised | 0.1% |
Above expectations, nudges up inflation risk.
Average Hourly Earnings YoY
| Survey | 3.8% |
| Actual | 3.8% |
| Prior | 3.8% |
| Revised | 3.6% |
Average Weekly Hours (Nov)
| Survey | 33.8 |
| Actual | 33.8 |
| Prior | 33.8 |
| Revised | n/a |
Total hours holding up nicely and growing some – could see Q4 GPD numbers revised up by some firms.
U. of Michigan Confidence (Dec P)
| Survey | 75.0 |
| Actual | 74.5 |
| Prior | 76.1 |
| Revised | n/a |
This is also from watching CNBC.
Consumer Credit (Oct)
| Survey | $5.0 |
| Actual | $4.7B |
| Prior | $3.7B |
| Revised | $3.2B |
Still in a reasonably narrow range.
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