Euro Trade Surplus, Euro Inflation

Trade surplus still trending higher along with deflation both make the euro ‘harder to get’ and ‘more valuable’:

European Union : Merchandise Trade
The seasonally adjusted merchandise trade balance returned a E19.8 billion surplus in August after an unrevised E22.4 billion excess in July. This was the least black ink since March. The unadjusted surplus was E11.2 billion, up from E7.4 billion in August 2014.

The headline reduction reflected mainly a 1.3 percent monthly fall in exports to E169.5 billion, their second successive decline and their lowest level since February. Imports were up 0.2 percent at E149.7 billion, only partially reversing July’s fall. Compared with a year ago, exports now show an unadjusted gain of 6.0 percent and imports a rise of 3.0 percent.

The average surplus in July/August was E21.1B, a drop of only 1.4 percent from the second quarter average. This is probably indicative of, at best, a much smaller contribution from total net exports to third quarter real GDP growth than the 0.3 percentage point boost provided in April-June. Further reason for being cautious about the speed of the Eurozone’s economic recovery.