ecri still negative

As previously discussed, this is dismissed because of a prior false recession alarm. At that time the deficit was, in my opinion, high enough to support positive growth.

Today’s a different story. The economy always requires deficit spending from some agent to offset the tendency to not spend income (demand leakages). Looks like it’s been the high cost energy sector doing the deficit spending (new bank loans, new bonds, new equity, etc.) to support the modest growth we’ve had, picking up the slack as govt deficit spending receded. And now it looks like the energy related deficit spending is falling as the price of oil falls.

Not good for GDP!