I keep looking for domestic credit expansion, to fill the ‘spending gap’ left by the tax hikes and sequesters.
The headline uptick in consumer credit looked promising, but seems there’s some kind of ‘seasonal’ factor at work, as it’s done this every year for the last three years, so the year over year change isn’t showing any signs of life.
Nor is mortgage debt outstanding or any other measure of lending that I’ve seen showing any material growth.
I’m now hearing Q2 GDP growth estimates are down to +1 to + 1.5% or so. This is to be expected when the federal deficit reduction measures aren’t being ‘offset’ by domestic credit expansion and/or increased net exports. In fact, the higher than expected trade deficit was the latest thing to pushing down GDP estimates.
Worse, with a bit of a lag, lower GDP growth = lower sales growth= lower job growth (presuming ‘productivity’ doesn’t collapse) and then the lower job growth feeds back into lower sales, etc.
So yes, more jobs mean more income for those working, but without sales and earnings growth their paychecks reduce corporate incomes which then drives ‘negative adjustments’ in hiring policy, etc.
The answer, as always, is quite simple- cut taxes and/or increase govt spending, depending on one’s politics.
Unfortunately govt- and not just our govt, but all govt that I know of- is still going the other way and continuing to make things worse.
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