*DJ Fed’s Plosser:’Monetary Policy Has Exposed Us To Substantial Inflation Risk’
Maybe it’s a learning disability…
MMT on the Washington Post
Were you caught by the Russian default Warren?
WARREN MOSLER Reply:February 22nd, 2012 at 7:40 am
the ‘High Risk Opportunities Fund’ was, but I had turned over management to my partners at the end of 1997 due to a disagreement over the management of that fund. I insisted there was a substantial risk of default due to the fixed fx policy and administrators who didn’t understand their monetary system.
The only part of the fund I was responsible for was the name, which all involved still credit for the fact that there was not a single investor lawsuit. And I invested no money in it.
Deficits covered by privately held govt debt would not add to inflation but how about deficits covered by govt debt bought by the fed?
Rodger Malcolm Mitchell Reply:February 16th, 2012 at 3:31 pm
@JBH, Federal debt, i.e. total of T-securities, does not “cover” anything. We could create $100 trillion worth of federal deficits every hour, and still have $0 federal debt. Just stop creating and selling T-securities.
Contrary to popular myth, there is zero functional relationship between federal deficits and federal debt.
By the way, for all you gobble-de-gook fans out there, I offer this beauty from the Treasury: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-officials-urge-europe-deal-150236014.html?l=1
Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
WARREN MOSLER Reply:February 17th, 2012 at 1:28 am
spending adds to aggregate demand and can put upward pressure on prices.
but whether the dollars created by the federal govt when it spends wind up in reserve accounts or securities accounts
is of little or no consequence.
see ‘the 7 deadly innocent frauds’ on this website
Since August 15, 1971, when we became Monetarily Sovereign, there has been zero relationship between monetary policy and inflation. See: http://rodgermmitchell.wordpress.com/2010/04/06/more-thoughts-on-inflation/ All inflations have been caused by energy prices.
That period includes all kinds of monetary policy.
But the price of oil is going up, so inflation indeed may be on the way, and Plosser will have been “proved” correct. See how smart he is.
Unforgiven Reply:February 16th, 2012 at 1:40 pm
@Rodger Malcolm Mitchell,
Rather than focusing on domestic inflation, we should have a “Lobbyist Index” to tell us when too much money is going into a particular subsector. Good predictor of a bubble, perhaps?
Monica Smith Reply:February 19th, 2012 at 7:56 am
@Rodger Malcolm Mitchell, Have you noticed that 1971 is also the year the 26th Amendment kicked in and universal suffrage arrived? All adults having a vote and a say over the money supply seems to have been a recipe for terror. That is, it struck terror into the hearts of the good old boys and they’ve been trying to regain control ever since.
Trimtabs SLAYS obama’s taxes! LOL!
With take home pay at $6.3tn for everyone who pays taxes, up $300-400bn from the 2009 low, but still well below the $7.1tn rate from early 2008; Biderman’s consternation at the self-hypnosis that a $200bn tax increase in an economy where take-home pay has been growing by only $100bn per year will somehow create anything other than slow-growth at best (or more likely contraction) is palpable
Save America Reply:February 17th, 2012 at 4:30 am
@Save America, Tyler Durden at Zerohedge is making a mental breakthrough, our taxes are far too high, or debts too low, he proposes a Tax Moratorium and do away with taxes entirely:
In fiscal 2012, starting October 31 through today, the US has collected $677.6 billion in withholdings taxes, while issuing $601 billion in debt over the same period of time. In other words, for now at least tax revenues are running 12% above debt issuance. Alas, considering that according to the president’s own budget there is another $1 trillion in debt issuance over the next seven and a half months, we have a very distinct feeling the red line will cross the blue line yet again, and quite soon at that. Naturally, a logical question arises: why not just do away with taxes entirely and have all US capital needs be debt funded?
Matt Franko Reply:February 17th, 2012 at 9:17 am
“the US has collected $677.6 billion in withholdings taxes, while issuing $601 billion in debt over the same period of time. In other words, for now at least tax revenues are running 12% above debt issuance.”
This is part of a larger event timeline that leads back to end of May 2011 when Treasury first hit the so-called “debt ceiling”. Since then there have been several periods where the govt sector has not net been paying for it’s provision, and has been self-constrained to only pay out balances at the same rate as it has been able to take in balances, leaving those in the non-govt sector “unpaid” for weeks and sometimes months.
Now they have temporarily lifted this self-imposed constraint somewhat by 1.2T and the flow of USD balances paid to the non-govt sector should substantially return closer to desired levels for looks like at least 9-10 months. Resp,
kkken530 Reply:February 19th, 2012 at 9:47 pm
@Save America, Why not directly issue U.S. Treasury bills,non-interest bearing but convertible to 2% U.S.Bonds to pay federal debt,and current expences,Loan Money to the states for infrastructure projects at 1%,Mortgage Loans To homeowners for up to $50,000.00 at 3%,Loans on productive property up to 1/2 assessed value at 3%interest,payments of interest to be paid twice yearly,principle to be paid off anytime within 30 years..And the interest payments serve as a backing to the dollar..
WARREN MOSLER Reply:February 22nd, 2012 at 7:45 am
why not limit new tsy sales to 3 mo bills and make the 0 rate policy permanent?
and give the states grants for whatever suits public purpose?
way simpler and employs fewer admins and accountants
Warren are you investing in Privatized Prisons? With DRONES and debtor’s prisons coming back, you will make a FORTUNE!
When you have mismanaged the economy and the people are starving and angry, Send in the DRONES! Skynet is here! LOL!
Drones are mainly associated with the Predator airships that patrol the Afghanistan sky. But thanks to a bipartisan vote last week, the public can expect 30,000 domestic drones flying over the United States in the next eight years.
The dramatic change in policy, which has raised concerns with everyone from civil liberties groups like the ACLU and Electronic Frontier Foundation to the pilot association and the Independent Institute, as well as conservative think tanks, occurred thanks to an aggressive and well-organized effort by drone makers and their lobbyists.
Yesterday, we reported how the Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International (AUVS), a drone trade group, actually doubled its recent lobbying expenses. Today, we report on a PowerPoint presentation put together by top AUVS lobbyists Michael Toscano, Mario Mairena, and Ben Gielow. The lobby group — which maintains an official partnership in Congress with Reps. Buck McKeon (R-CA), Henry Cuellar (D-TX), and dozens of other lawmakers — was the driving force behind the domestic drone decision passed last week. In the presentation obtained by Republic Report, there are several fascinating concerns raised by the lobbyists:
(PS warren: You better be careful out there on that big boat catching too many fish, They are watching you now and might send in a terminator if you pull in one of those BIG grouper ;)
Diverting the topic, the “COMMITTEE FOR RESPONSIBLE FIAT” is at it again. They’re holding a Budget Wake.
Somehow, they find the funds to hand out free sandwiches & soda at these events. Maybe by crowding out FICA tax cuts?
Move over Irish Wake, the DT’s are moving in.
Our public will have “better ideas” after listening to this? Deliriums indeed!
ps: Maybe the “deficit” they’ve been discussing all this time involves delirium deficits? That would at last offer some plausible explanation for their tremulous vocalizations. All other explanations sound like either econo-terrorism, or mass stupidity.
They’re driving people to drink, which may actually increase aggregate demand.
In the words of Randy Wray, “[S]overeign currencies are [not] free from inflation… [I]f government tries to increase its spending beyond full employment, this can be inflationary…”
In other words, we are light years away from inflation as a result of deficit growth so please, we’re begging you, grow the deficit!
In case any of you prof’s out there need a last minute card for a TA….
“Plosser said he is concerned “monetary policy has exposed us to substantial inflation risk over the medium to longer term.” He said his forecast is that inflation will settle around 2% in 2012.”
So the medium term is greater than 1 year. He actually thinks the Fed is locked into policy for over a year? and what is this medium to longer term?
It’s not just the point that they don’t get (or pretend not to know) monetary operations, they can’t even string together an idea that has any value whatsoever.
Is this what they teach in sound bite class?
Monica Smith Reply:February 19th, 2012 at 7:48 am
@pebird, The Fed announced that the funds rate would not be increased before 2014. I think it’s now at 0.025. Since I can still remember when the rate announcement was a matter of media speculation every quarter, I don’t know why this announcement hasn’t gotten more notice. Perhaps nobody wants to believe it.
Please move to a congressional district with like 10 people in it so we can have a bunch of MMTers move there too and vote for you. We need to get you into office somewhere! :)
Its starting to get ridiculous. These people are starting to hurt my brain.
No doubt. It never ceases to amaze me….
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Warren B. Mosler