Goldman excerpts from employment report

The positives have been well publicized, so I’m just forwarding the negatives, particularly the downward revisions to Q2 I’ve been concerned about:

2. Results from the household survey were disappointing. Total household employment fell by 190k, and the unemployment rate rose to 9.0% (8.96% unrounded) from 8.8% previously. . Results were somewhat better after adjusting for methodological consistency with the nonfarm payroll data; on this basis the household survey measure of employment would have increased by 50k. However, the labor force participation rate was unchanged during the month, indicating that the rise in the unemployment rate reflected job losses rather than an influx of persons into the labor force. While the news was discouraging, it follows four months of declining unemployment, and the level of the unemployment rate remains down 1.1 percentage points from its peak. The employment-to-population ratio fell slightly to 58.4% from 58.5% previously.

4. After the Employment Report, our Current Activity Indicator (CAI) showed growth of 2.3% in April, down from 4.0% in March. The deceleration mostly reflects weaker survey-based data (e.g. the non-manufacturing ISM and Philly reports), and indicates a cooling in overall growth early in Q2.

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16 Responses to Goldman excerpts from employment report

  1. Clonal Antibody says:

    On a slightly less positive note, from Stephan Ewald

    “Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 244,000 in April, and the unemployment rate edged up to 9.0 percent,”. That does not sound very good.

    Now what I’m wondering is: Because The Burger Economy is booming McDonald’s alone added 62,000 people to its payroll in April? So either Ronald McDonald is responsible for approximate 25% of the new jobs or something is seriously wrong with the BLS figures.

    Reply

    MamMoTh Reply:

    @Clonal Antibody,

    Could be Ronald McDonald is hiring farmers.
    He might be planning to start selling something that looks somewhat natural.
    That would be a paradigm shift!

    Reply

    beowulf Reply:

    The monthly unemployment figures are net. As Dean Baker pointed out last year.

    “Each month the Labor Department reports a net figure for job gains or losses. In recent months, the Labor Department has reported relatively small declines in jobs, leading many to believe that few layoffs are taking place. In fact, companies are losing roughly 4 million workers a month, half of them through voluntary quits and half through layoffs and firing. These lost jobs are offset by roughly 4 million new hires each month, leaving the net figure showing modest job losses in recent months.”
    http://mrzine.monthlyreview.org/2010/baker180310.html

    Reply

  2. Dan F says:

    On a different topic I am really starting to find Bill Gross entertaining.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110506/bs_nm/us_investing_treasuries_pimco

    Reply

    Geoff Johnston Reply:

    It is certainly interesting that the leading money manager apparently doesn’t understand money.

    Reply

    Ed Rombach Reply:

    Here’s a video I recorded last week on PIMCO prior to the FOMC statement

    http://bit.ly/huu2Sb

    Reply

    Geoff Reply:

    Excellent piece, Ed.

    Reply

    Ed Rombach Reply:

    Thanx & stay tuned, because we are working on another show with Warren again this week.

    WARREN MOSLER Reply:

    Yes, looking forward to it!

    Tom Hickey Reply:

    @Ed Rombach,

    Very nice, Ed.

    Reply

    Mario Reply:

    love it. great video.

    Why is it that higher deficits have a positive relationship with lower bond yields? What is happening fundamentally there to explain that?

    Reply

    RSJ Reply:

    @Mario,

    Governments run deficits when the economy is tanking and both (nominal) bond yields as well as inflation are declining.

    Mario Reply:

    @Mario,

    Thanks RSJ. That’s what I was thinking too. ;)

  3. save america says:

    I talked to a former medical care person who is working a 2cnd job at dennys waiting tables in DC. Her son is 21 and wants to be a doctor, but he is afraid of all the debt that will be incurred and if he can pay it back in time to enjoy his golden years. I said yah, we need doctors, why doesn’t the goverment give more free education to people that want to be doctors instead of putting them 200-400K in debt that they don’t think they can repay? She said she needs doctors because her kidneys are about to go and also her lungs. She was mid 40’s and smoked since she was 13, and drinks 12 beers a day. I said maybe you shouldn’t do that, there is only so much the government can do.

    Reply

    save america Reply:

    http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-foreign-born-major-leaguers2011-5

    Has globalization of world labor markets peaked? Importation of sports workers seems toppy. Foreign born baseballers is on decline in USA, and the number of countries they are from has also went down. Doesn’t look good.

    Reply

    save america Reply:

    http://www.businessinsider.com/credit-suisse-sec-subpoena-1-million-loan-stripper-never-paid-emails-jail-fraud-2011

    Now for years I complained here on this blog that latino loan officers in miami were giving bad loans to illegal aliens down there to support their hookers and blow, here is more PROOF that unregulated bankers are driving market prices too damn high – spitzer only paid 5K for some fun, this dumb banker paid 1 million through a bad loan to a stripper! I wonder if it got securitized and resold to japanese housewives as AAA rated CDS in the entertainment industry! LOL! At least back in Bernanke’s hometown of Dillon, they only wanted 25 dollars for a dance :)

    Reply

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