NFP
Posted by WARREN MOSLER on December 4th, 2009
Karim writes:
Strong number; details mostly firm:
- NFP -11k with net revisions +159k
- UE rate down from 10.196% to 9.992%
- Diffusion index up from 32.5 to 40.6
- Hours index up 0.6%
- U6 unemployment down from 17.5% to 17.2%
Sectors:
- Construction -56k to -27k
- Retail -44k to -15k
- Temp 44k to 52k
- Leisure/hospitality -36k to -11k
Main weak spots were average hourly earnings at 0.1% and median duration of unemployment up from 18.7 weeks to 20.1 weeks
No question a strong report (should actually still say less bad as any decline in jobs is still bad). If payrolls and claims maintain recent improvement through current period of seasonal adjustment questions (and confirmed by other labor market metrics like ISM employment series, Conf Board surveys,etc), could see Fed drop the ‘2 Es’ earlier than previously thought (perhaps as soon as March meeting).
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December 8th, 2009 at 12:05 pm
As lending shifts to spending, interesting stuff starts to happen (just in time for 2010 election cycle).
Obama preparing new push to add jobs, tackle deficit
DEBATE OVER BAILOUT MONEY
Redirecting TARP funds to small firms proposed
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/12/07/AR2009120704125.html?wprss=rss_politics
Though I’d think some inflation is what is needed, if we don’t get the spending, Xie could be right about a 2nd collapse as soon as 2012. Low rates alone just won’t do the job to get the economy moving again, though Xie erroneously seems to think low rates will cause inflation not just in asset prices but in wage/prices.
Bernanke Low Rates ‘Poison’ to U.S. Economy, Xie Says (Update1)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aYVuIVpuwo4I
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