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GDP/ECI

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on July 31st, 2009


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Karim writes:

Most important info in the report is the benchmark revisions: The first year of the recession (Q4 2007-Q3 2008) was revised from -0.8% to -1.9%. This adds a full percentage point to the Fed’s output gap measure. Also, Q2 2009 negative print marks first time U.S. economy has had four consecutive quarters of negative growth since 1947.

Q4 2008 was revised from -6.4% to -5.5%; Q1 2009 from -5.4% to -6.3%

The weaker Q1 number (especially inventories) led to the Q2 inventory drag being less than expected (-0.8%) and hence Q2 being less negative than expected at -1%.

The other components of GDP were either in line or weaker than expected. All numbers below are annualized rate of change:

  • Private consumption: -1.2% vs 0.6%
  • Non-residential fixed investment: -8.9% vs -43.6%
  • Residential fixed-investment (housing): -29.3% vs -38.2%
  • Exports: -7% vs -29.9%
  • Govt: 5.6% vs -2.6%

ECI posts second lowest advance on record at 0.4% (after 0.3% prior quarter).


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