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With productivity up more than expected Q2 GDP can be flat with hours declining.

Karim writes:

  • Rate of decline definitely slowing overall and across a number of industries
  • But to put the ‘blowout’ number (according to CNBC) in perspective: The -345k drop in employment was only exceeded 6 times since 1960 prior to the current recession
  • NFP -345k and net revisions +82k


Good News

  • Diffusion index 25.8 to 32.7
  • Relative improvement despite 7k decline in govt jobs
  • Consistent pattern of slower rate of contraction across several industries (retail, construction, temp, hospitality)

Bad News

  • Unemployment rate up from 8.9% to 9.4%
  • Duration of unemployment up from 21.4 weeks to 22.5 weeks
  • Hours down 0.7%
  • Total Unemployed and Underemployed up from 15.8% to 16.4%