Niall Ferguson
Posted by WARREN MOSLER on May 12th, 2009
Someone needs to tell this guy the deficit spending IS the private savings. If any of you know him, please forward this, thanks.
Niall Ferguson jumped in with both feet. Calling the government’s growth forecasts ‘crazily optimistic’ he predicted federal debt would soon reach 140% of GDP and that private savings could not possibly absorb it all. “I hate to teach arithmetic to a Nobel laureate but it doesn’t quite add up,†he said.
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May 12th, 2009 at 8:32 pm
Warren:
A question: what am I to make of this:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1f492c74-3b68-11de-ba91-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1
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May 13th, 2009 at 7:09 am
Below Taylor says the fed kept rates too low for too long, I don’t understand. Just yesterday Greenspan and Lazear both seemed to admit the fed is irrelevant and the markets did what they wanted regardless of fed policy.
The Federal Reserve may soon need to raise interest rates, said John Taylor, the former Treasury official who devised the “Taylor Rule,†a formula for rate- setting based on the outlook for inflation and growth.
“My calculation implies we may not have as much time before the Fed has to remove excess reserves and raise the rate,†Taylor, a Treasury undersecretary under President George W. Bush from 2001 to 2005, said yesterday at an Atlanta Fed conference in Jekyll Island, Georgia.
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said earlier this week at the conference the Fed was prepared to withdraw monetary stimulus “in a timely way†to prevent inflation from becoming a threat when the economy recovers. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said yesterday that the decline in the U.S. housing market may be bottoming and it’s “very easy to see†financial markets continuing to improve.
Taylor, a Stanford University professor, disagreed with economists who say his rule suggests the need for stimulus and justifies cuts in the federal funds rate to negative territory. Laurence Meyer, vice chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, said in March the rule might suggest the need to reduce the funds rate to minus 7.5 percent by the end of 2009.
Fed’s Fault
The Fed helped to trigger the current financial crisis by keeping rates too low for too long, Taylor said.
“Low interest rates led to the acceleration of the housing boom,†he said. “The boom then resulted in the bust, with delinquencies, foreclosures and toxic assets on the balance sheet of financial institutions in the United States and other countries.â€ÂÂ
Taylor said that though policy makers were well intended, they were mistaken in trying to “fine-tune†the economy after about a quarter of a century during which long and deep recessions had been avoided.
“Sticking to the basics, what worked, would have been much better†than to lower interest rates to 1 percent in 2003 to try to revive growth, he said.
Taylor said the Fed’s growing balance sheet is a “systemic risk†because it may be difficult to unwind quickly enough without igniting inflation. The Fed’s balance sheet has more than doubled since last September to about $2 trillion as it purchased government and corporate debt to help unfreeze credit markets and support banks’ demand for cash.
Misguided Proposals
Taylor also said proposals for a systemic risk regulator may be misguided. Such a regulator wouldn’t have prevented the financial crisis, he said.
“If it were given its own regulatory powers, they would be very difficult to limit,†he said. “The experience during the panic last fall is not reassuring that such an agency could resolve private institutions without causing more systemic risks than it was trying to reduce.â€ÂÂ
A systemic regulator isn’t a “magic bullet†and its existence could affect the performance of other regulators, he said. “I worry about that a lot, the way government works and the way passing the buck tends to happen,†Taylor said.
(snip)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aV6Pt8zrE3bI&refer=home
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Curious Reply:
May 13th, 2009 at 1:37 pm
Natural rate of interest is zero and borrowers should pay only risk premium, as Warren explained, which makes sense to me. I don’t understand the constant blame of the current situation on the fed keeping rates too low for too long.
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Scott Fullwiler Reply:
May 13th, 2009 at 2:39 pm
Agreed. They’re out of paradigm, as Warren says.
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