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MOSLER'S LAW: There is no financial crisis so deep that a sufficiently large tax cut or spending increase cannot deal with it.

The 8000lb bear in the room

Posted by Sada Mosler on August 20th, 2008


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There’s nothing credit issues can do to GDP that fiscal policy can’t handle.

Congress has seemingly figured that out and probably the rest of the world as well as evidenced by the new proposed fiscal packages popping up around the world.

Yes, we can lose a bank or two, and lending standards tighten further, but GDP will continue to muddle through even if that means a series of fiscal measures.

And Congress was born to spend; so, they are all over this one.

The only thing that might slow them down is inflation, and so far they’ve seemed to support the Fed trying to step hard on the inflation pedal, rather than ‘tighten’ which presumably helps inflation.

And no one seems to notice the 8000lb bear in the room.

Our response to Russia reminds me of Monty Python’s coconut clapping Arthur trying to intimidate the French defenders of the fort with his credentials.

We threaten them with diplomatic isolation, trade sanctions, etc. as if they care.

They don’t care.

They do care about the new missiles going into Poland.

And we are committed to considering an attack on Poland or any other NATO member as an attack on US soil, as Rice reminded them and even maybe dared them to try something.

We can’t defend anyone against against Russia with our own troops without risking nuclear war.

And Russia will be a lot quicker to that trigger than we will.

And they still have maybe thousands of nuclear warheads aimed our way.

Their next step for Russia is probably to make an offer to the rest of the ex-Soviet Union members they can’t refuse.

Russia sells the Eurozone something like 30% of their oil and gas and can do it at any price they want, and demand any real terms of trade they want.

The risk is we try to draw a line in the sand in some nowhere place over there, and it escalates to where we back down or get involved in lobbing nukes.

I suppose it’s just another case of this administration not seeing the forest for the trees.

We’ve let Russia be reorganized by the ex-KGB leadership that’s a lot smarter than ours, and now we’re paying the price.

Both the inflation and cold war of the 1970s is back, except this time our opposition is far stronger.

There is no even semi-quick supply response to dislodge the Saudis and/or Russians from setting any terms of trade they want.

The Russian consolidation is on the way up supported by a bath of capitalist type riches rather than crumbling under its own weight of a failed socialist economy.

Apart from that, I’m optimistic.


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8 Responses to “The 8000lb bear in the room”

  1. Ted Says:

    You hit the bullseye Warren. Seems to me with all the American $$$$$ the Russians are collecting from us they will want/need/desire a political system more like ours than the old Russian system could ever give them. Anyway, lets hope so. Nobody wants another cold war.

    Reply

  2. warren mosler Says:

    hope for the best, prepare for the worst seems to fit this mess

    Reply

  3. Jim Baird Says:

    I know I, for one, would rather be facing Leonid Brezhnev than “Vlad the impaler”. You’re right: these new Russians are smart, and they know they hold the cards. Asn the two bozos running right now seem to be even worse (which I didn’t think was possible) than the current crowd. Ah, just have to put faith in ‘ol Bismark’s statement: “God looks out for fools, drunks, and the United States of America”

    Reply

  4. warren mosler Says:

    agreed!

    Reply

  5. patrick the painter Says:

    Who is behind Vitol? Soros?
    And when will Isreal drop the bomb? The new pivot point.
    Today was short covering on last day of Sept contract or
    traders in the know about the pivot point.

    Reply

  6. warren mosler Says:

    I don’t know much about Vitol

    yes, wondering if bush/israel can ‘afford’ to risk a new US regime that they think might let iran get nukes.

    yes, or the swing producer posting higher prices after letting a liquidation run it’s course.

    Reply

  7. vipul Says:

    Excellent article discussing the ramifications of the Georgian invasion and our powerlessness here:

    http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=9bc4033e-c412-426c-9907-78d4e5d72abf

    I think some good points above about the ex-KGB types knowing they hold many cards and are smart enough to play them. But I disagree slightly about their overall strength. Russia and also all the other petro-based autocracies are entirely dependent on that single resource. Russia to me appears weaker than the Soviet Union, without the oil crutch would they be better than a 3rd world economy?

    Putin doesn’t seem interested in Russia’s long-term well being (contrast his rule to that of China’s autocracy). He and his cronies are probably looting many of the oil dollars for their own use. There is no war competition of ideologies here, so I don’t think a cold war is likely.

    Reply

  8. warren mosler Says:

    hope you are right!

    Reply

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