[Skip to the end]

(email exchange)

Thanks, along with the personal income data, and the end of the inventory liquidations through most of December, seems to be early anecdotal evidence of a flattening after year end. Several other series have had minor turns up as well.

(0 GDP growth still means rising unemployment)

>   
>   On Tue, Mar 3, 2009 at 3:41 PM, Russell wrote:
>   

ATA Truck Tonnage Index Rose 3 Percent in January

by Connie Heiss

Feb 27 (ATA Trucking) — From the American Trucking Association: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Rose 3 Percent in January

The American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index climbed 3 percent in January 2009, marking only the second month-to-month increase in the last seven months. Still, the gain did little to erase the revised 7.8 percent contraction in December 2008. In January, the seasonally adjusted tonnage index equaled just 104.7 (2000 = 100), its second-lowest level since October 2002. …

Compared with January 2008, the index declined 10.8 percent, which was slightly better than December’s 12.5 percent year-over-year drop.

ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said that there was no reason to get excited about January’s 3 percent month-to-month improvement. “Tonnage will not fall every month, and just because it rises every now and then doesn’t mean the economy is on the mend,” Costello said. “Furthermore, tonnage is contracting significantly on a year-over-year basis, which is highlighting the current weakness in the freight environment.”

[top]