First the release and mainstream commentary:
Employment Situation
Highlights
The November employment situation was significantly stronger than expected. Payroll jobs jumped 321,000 after gaining 243,000 in October. Analysts expected a 230,000 rise and the November boost topped the high forecast for 275,000. September and October gains were revised up notably by a net 44,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 5.8 percent. Expectations were for 5.8 percent. Wages rose sharply in the latest month.
Going back to the payroll report, private payrolls advanced 314,000 after increasing 236,000 in October. Analysts projected 225,000.
Goods-producing jobs gained 48,000 in November after a 28,000 advance the month before. Manufacturing employment increased 28,000 in November, following a boost of 20,000 in October. Motor vehicles and parts rose 11,000, after increasing 5,000 the month before. Construction jumped 20,000 after a gain of 7,000 in October. Mining slipped 1,000 in November, following no change the prior month.
Private service-providing jobs jumped 266,000 after a 208,000 increase in October. Strength again was in professional & business services and retail trade.
Average hourly earnings jumped 0.4 percent in November after edging up 0.1 percent the month before. Expectations were for a 0.2 percent rise. Average weekly hours edged up to 34.6 hours from 34.5 hours in October. Analysts expected 34.6 hours.
The November employment report clearly shows an improving economy. This suggests improving profits but also likely will raise chatter of the Fed moving forward the first increase in policy rates.
Here’s a longer term view:
And here’s the Nonfarm Payroll numbers not seasonally adjusted they convert to monthly numbers with their adjustments, which they’ve recently redone:
And here are the household survey releases that showed 0 jobs after a near 700,000 gain the month before and 0 the month before that. Over time the household survey and Nonfarm Payroll report tend to converge:
And they are spinning this as a dangerous uptick in compensation:
This is more straight forward and indicative of ‘improvement’: