So far looks like a soft landing, as they seem to be successfully regulating state lending, which in China is akin to deficit spending,
sufficiently to slow things down just enough to cool demand just enough to take the edge off of their inflation problem.
So while ‘it’s not over until it’s over’ so far it’s looking promising.
China consumer, business sentiment slips: survey
Sept 16 (MarketWatch) — Chinese households and entrepreneurs are beginning to feel less upbeat about the future, but analysts are divided over whether the mood shift could soon warrant moderate policy easing as authorities seek to cushion the economy from a rapid slowdown.Sentiment among households, entrepreneurs and bankers weakened in the most recent quarter, according to a survey by the People’s Bank of China released earlier this week.
Households’ inflation expectations nudged up to 74.8 from 72.2, while the outlook for income expectations and job expectations declined 50.3 from 52.1, according to the PBOC survey.
Meanwhile, confidence among bankers eased to 54.9 from 57. Most of those polled believe further monetary-policy tightening was on the way, with interest rates set to rise in the fourth quarter.
Entrepreneurs’ confidence was battered by higher input costs, slowing orders, and harder-to-access credit. Business confidence fell to 70.2 from 75.8 in the prior quarter.
Daiwa Capital Markets analysts said the deteriorating sentiment suggests the PBOC will allow domestic banks to ramp up new lending by an additional 500 billion yuan ($78.32 billion) in the fourth quarter.
The higher loan growth should be seen as “fine tuning” of policy toward a “more balanced approach,” the Daiwa analysts said.
“The purpose of this loosening is to avoid a hard landing, rather than to engineer another economic boom,” Daiwa said in a note Thursday.